Water resources allocation and conflicts: The case of the Euphrates and the Tigris
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 400030
- Danışmanlar: PROF. JEAN MİCHEL GULDMANN
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: Şehircilik ve Bölge Planlama, Urban and Regional Planning
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2002
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: The Ohio State University
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Şehir ve Bölge Planlama Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Bölge Planlama Bilim Dalı
- Sayfa Sayısı: 240
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
The Mesopotamia region, within the boundaries of Turkey, Iraq, and Syria, ispopulated by different ethnic, national, and religious groups (Turks, Arabs, Kurds, Sunnisand Shiites), which have long fought over the control of its fertile lands. Since the early1970?s, there has been an increase in tension among these three countries, primarilyrelated to the sharing of the waters of the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. In particular,Turkey?s development of Southeastern Anatolia, with water needed for agricultural andenergy production projects, has been viewed as a threat to the wellbeingof Syria andIraq. This water problem is likely to be exacerbated in the future, when water demandgrows in both quantity and quality due to high population growth and urban development.This dissertation develops a water allocation optimization model that represents, innetwork form, the system made of the two rivers and their various consumption(agriculture, urban centers, hydropower plants) and transshipment nodes, including thepossibility of transferring water from the Euphrates to the Tigris. The basic modelmaximizes the aggregate net benefits of the three countries, including the gross benefitsfrom water uses in agriculture, urban functions, and hydroelectricity, minus the costs ofwater conveyance. The model is formulated as a linear program, and accounts for bothevaporation and return flows from consumptive uses. In view of the uncertaintysurrounding the values of several parameters (e.g., agricultural benefit derived from usinga gallon of water), the model is used to carry systematic sensitivity analyses to identifythe critical parameters. Next, cooperative game theory concepts (core, Shapley value) areused to identify stable water allocations, where all three countries find it beneficial tocooperate. These various analyses are carried out under different scenarios related tofuture energy prices, agricultural production efficiency, and total water availability. Thepolicy implications of the results are discussed, and areas for further research areoutlined.
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