Three essays on international trade and balance of payments constrained growth
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 780742
- Danışmanlar: PROF. MARK SETTERFİELD
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: Uluslararası Ticaret, Ekonomi, International Trade, Economics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2022
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: The New School
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.
Özet
This dissertation consists of three complementary, but self-contained chapters on international trade and the balance of payments-constrained growth (BPCG) framework. Following the Kaldorian tradition within Post-Keynesian economics, the BPCG framework suggests that the long-run growth rate of a country is demand-constrained and determined mainly by its trade performance together with the world income growth. The first chapter presents a literature review of this BPCG framework with its origins, criticisms and theoretical developments while suggesting directions for further research. The original BPCG framework suggests that the gains in relative growth of price competitiveness has no considerable effect in improvements in output growth in the long run. Furthermore, the multisectoral BPCG framework points out possible detrimental impacts of the price channel due to the presence of imported intermediate inputs. Having been motivated by these discussions, the second chapter analyzes the impacts of a currency devaluation within a simple multi-sectoral stock flow consistent (SFC) model. The experiments simulated in this model show the contractionary impacts of currency devaluation on the trade account and output in a high import-dependent regime. Therefore, this analysis highlights the importance of improvements in the economic structure in support of the BPCG literature, while providing further insights to the literature with its tracking of simultaneous interactions between real and financial economies. Finally, the third chapter investigates the significance of the adjustment channels in the reconciliation between the BPCG rate and the natural rate of growth. In the theoretical BPCG literature, there are two channels: the income elasticity of demand for imports parameter and the Verdoorn coefficient, which are suggested to play a role in the adjustment between these two growth rates. Contributing to a rather scarce empirical literature, the third chapter tests these two channels by applying panel ARDL to 19 OECD economies. The findings suggest long-run significance for both channels, and short-run significance for only income elasticity of demand for imports channel, suggesting different time- varying nature and response time of the variables. All in all, this dissertation contributes to the BPCG literature on some of the hotly debated issues.
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