Essays on international capital flows to developing countries
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- Tez No: 400065
- Danışmanlar: PROF. OLİVER MORRİSSEY, DR. SPİROS BOUGHEAS
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2012
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: The University of Nottingham
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 185
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
This thesis investigates international capital flows to developing countries for the period1970-2006. The first chapter introduces the theoretical and empirical framework of the thesis,motivates it, overviews its building blocks (i.e. the following chapters) and clarifies itsapproach to the balance of payments. The second chapter reviews the data and shows theoverall trends and developments in capital flows to the developing world by focusing on thegeographical regions and income groups.The core of the thesis explores the empirical puzzle that although one would expectinternational capital to flow to capital scarce countries where returns are higher, observationshows that capital flows to richer rather than to poorer countries (the Lucas paradox). Toexplore this total capital is measured as the sum of foreign direct investment and portfolioequity flows. The third chapter addresses the argument, based on cross-section evidence(Alfaro et al, Rev. Econ. Stats), that including the quality of institutions accounts for theparadox (because richer countries have better institutions they attract more capital) and findsthat this only holds if developed countries are included; within developing countries,institutions do not account for the paradox. The fourth chapter extends this by includinginstitutional quality indicators among determinants of capital inflows and employs a varietyof panel data estimators; the quality of institutions does not resolve the Lucas paradox,although certain types of institutions are important. The persistence in the paradox andimplied non-convergence could be ascribed to the detrimental impacts of negative shocks andvolatility in global financial markets or to a Linder-type home bias in international finance.The fifth chapter analyzes volatility, comovement (or contagion risk) and sudden stop(reversibility) of capital flows (foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign portfolio equityinvestment, long-term and short-term debt flows) using time series econometric techniquesfor twelve emerging market economies over 1970-2006. This is informative on the patternand relationship between capital inflows, with implications for accommodatingmacroeconomic policies in countries receiving inflows. The chapter also addresses thepredictions of conventional theory, that differences are associated with the maturity of thecapital (long-term vs. short-term), with the information-based trade-off model of Goldsteinand Razin (2006), that differences are associated with the structure of the capital (equity vs.debt). In line with the latter, equity flows (FDI and portfolio) are less volatile, morepersistent, more predictable and less susceptible to sudden stops than debt flows. Contrary toconventional theory, short-term flows are not more volatile, but there is evidence thatcorrelations and risks of contagion are stronger within the pairs of long-term and equitycapital flows than within the short-term capital flows.
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