Avrupa Merkez Bankası'nın oluşumu, para politikası, uygulama sorunları ve Türkiye etkileri
Formation of European Central Bank, its monetary policy, application problems and its effects on Turkey
- Tez No: 102389
- Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. İLHAN ULUDAĞ
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Bankacılık, Banking
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2000
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Marmara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Bankacılık Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 163
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
SUMMARY The European Monetary Union stands as one of the most important economic issues of the 1990s. For many European policy-makers, this project marks the pinnacle of the move towards European economic and political integration since the end of World War II. The success of this monetary arrangement depends upon the ability of European Union (EU)-level institutions to satisfy the monetary and fiscal policy demands of sufficient numbers of national constituents, interest groups, and multi-national corporations. The dissertation provides an analysis of the EU's one of multi-national monetary authorities which is ECB, supranational monetary authority, and its national central banks which are constituted ECBS. The first chapter provides a brief survey of Western European efforts at economic and political integration since the middle of the nineteenth century. During this period, a number of customs and monetary unions formed and subsequently disbanded. The disintegration of these unions resulted from economic circumstances that drove national governments to undertake divergent policies. After giving an historical background, the newly established structure of the ECBS and its bodies are examined in detail. The second chapter provides a theoretical overview of issues relevant to the creation and operation of currency unions drawing from the optimum currency area theory literature. Foremost among the criteria that define an optimum currency area is the suitability of a single monetary policy response to economic disturbances for the participating regions, particularly following economic disturbances. Whether or not a single monetary policy is suitable for one or more regional economies depends upon the similarity of economic disturbances and the operation of sufficient adjustment mechanisms. Adjustment mechanisms include, but are not limited to, exchange rateflexibility, factor and output market flexibility, industrial and portfolio diversification, economic openness, and fiscal policy. The institutional framework of a currency union also plays an important role in determining the success of single currency areas. The introduction of a currency union may include the transfer of monetary policy to a new central institution. This transfer implies that individual regions no longer retain authority over monetary and exchange rate policy. Fiscal policy may also be subject to constraints because of participation in a currency union. The third chapter provides information about the new monetary policy and its instruments. By giving a special importance on price stability which is defined clearly, the new monetary policy will be responsible for mamtaimng price stability all over the monetary area. In order to reach price stability, which is ultimate target there may be, different monetary strategies as well as different intermediate targets. A suitable mixture of these strategies and intermediate targets will be formed to achieve price stability. The fourth chapter examines the implications of EMU for monetary and fiscal policy and institutions. Participating in the EMU implies that countries surrender monetary and exchange rate policy to the ECB. If needed changes are not supplied, it is possible to experience some economic shocks. The chapter also discusses economic shocks in the context of EMU. A number of studies attempt to empirically determine whether regions of the EU are subject to asymmetric shocks. ECB will be responsible for practicing Monetary Policy in the euro area. This new monetary and political transformation makes the ECB one of the most important authorities in the area. After the transformation, Europe will be another economic zone like America or Asia. In turns of relation of the currencies such as US Dollar, Yen and Euro, the policies, which will be applied by the ECB, will have a special importance not only in the Europe but also in the World.“ *”, 12Open Market Operations: Open Market Operations will play an important role in the monetary policy of the ESCB for the purpose of steering interest rates, managing the liquidity situation in the market and signaling the stance of monetary policy. Standing facilities aim to provide and absorb overnight liquidity, signal the general stance of monetary policy and bound overnight market interest rates. Two standing facilities, which will be administered in a decentralized manner by the national central banks, will be available to eligible counterparts on their own initiative. Minimum Reserves: Preparatory work has been carried out with a view to enabling the ESCB to impose minimum reserves as from the start of Stage Three. It will be up to the Governing Council of the ECB to decide whether minimum reserves will actually be applied. Any minimum reserves system would be intended to pursue the aims of stabilizing money market interest rates, creating a structural liquidity shortage and possibly contributing to the control of monetary expansion. The reserve requirement of each institution would be determined in relation to elements of its balance sheet. In order to pursue the aim of stabilizing interest rates, the ESCB' s nıinimum reserves system would enable institutions to make use of averaging provisions. This implies that compliance with the reserve requirement would be determined on the basis of he institutions' average daily reserve holdings over a one-month maintenance period. In the context of this strategy the ECB has provided a quantitative definition of price stability. Price stability is defined as a year-on-year increase in the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) of below 2% for the euro area as a whole. Price stability is to be maintained in the medium term. The strategy consists of two pillars. The first pillar is a prominent role for money. The reference value for the growth of a broad monetary aggregate, M3, of 4.5% on an annual basis. 13In order to evaluate the quantitative definition of price stability a new index is created which is HICPs. (Harmonized indices of consumer prices). The first set of HICPs was published in March 1997, with historical series dating back to January 1995. After euro a new interest rate, which is Euribor, Euro Interbank Offered Rate, is used as the benchmark rate of the large euro money market. It is sponsored by the European Banking Federation which represents 2800 bank in the fifteen Member States of the European Union. Euro Libor, Euro London interbank offered rate, is used as rate of euro in the UK's markets. British Banking Association is started to use this rate after 1 January 1999. One another type of rate is Eonia, Euro Overnight Index Average, is an effective overnight rate computed as a weighted average of all overnight unsecured lending transactions in the interbank market, initiated within the euro area by the contributing panel banks. Transparency and Accountability Accountability for policies is the logical complement to independence in a democratic society. The Maastricht Treaty includes a number of provisions in this respect. First, there is the mandate to pursue price stability. This provides a qualitative measure against which the ECB's performance can be measured. The ECB has to publish an annual report in which, inter alia the monetary policy of the previous and current year is discussed. The ECB has to report on its activities at least quarterly. Economic hetorogeneities and limited adjustment mechanisms shed strong doubt on the suitability of a common monetary policy. Fiscal limits on national debt constitute a further constraint on regional adjustment policy. 14Economic shocks may lead to divergent monetary and fiscal policy preferences among EU constituents. In response, domestic demanders of policy call on their national representatives to promote and secure policy favorable to their interests within the decision framework of the EU. Target In 1998 intensive work continued on the implementation of the TARGET (Trans European Automated Real-time Gross settlement Express Transfer) system. With the operation of the TARGET payment system integrating the inter-bank markets in the monetary system, the financial markets will become deeper and more liquid. The more competitive environment will reduce the cost of financial intermediation and stimulate the investment activities in the financial markets. The relation of Monetary and Fiscal Policy in EMU The inclusion of restrictions on fiscal policy in a treaty which, after all, aims at monetary union, is a source of considerable debate. Before the Maastricht Treaty, most academic analyses emphasized that national fiscal policy would have to become more active to compensate for the loss of the exchange rate instrument. The opposite approach, that monetary union requires fiscal policy restraint, is grounded in the view that excessive budget deficits may lead to eventual monetization of he debt. Monetary authorities were clearly concerned by high debts in some countries, especially in Italy, whose public debt represent some 18 percent of Europe's GDP. They feared that an explicit or implicit lender-of-last resort function might force the ECB to step in and indirectly monazite a country's public debt if banks faced a financial crisis in the wake of a default. This concern is reflected in the budgetary criteria for EMU membership and in the“excessive deficit”procedures designed to enforce fiscal rectitude once in the monetary union. ; }'?*$% 15While it is difficult to disagree with the view that fiscal policy ought not to jeopardize monetary and fiscal stability, how to provide the incentives for appropriate fiscal policy is open to debate. The debate implicitly revolves around one's view of the ability of fiscal policy to play a macroeconomic stabilizing role. It also hinges on the ability to define at the time a deficit is enacted that it is“excessive”. In principle, the proper answer must be in terms of“sustainability”since unsustainable debt buildup will eventually have to be reversed (by definition.) Fiscal policy sustainability is also associated with stationarity of the debt, usually defined as a stable debt/GDP ratio. The Maastricht approach, relying o arbitrary quantitative limits, is quite unsophisticated. The 3 percent annual debt/GDP rule corresponds to what is called the“golden role”in Germany: governments may only borrow to pay for investment spending, and in turns out that governments usually dedicate about 3 percent of GDP to such spending. Even if one ignores doubts about the 3 percent estimate itself, the rule is naive at best; it ignores socially productive spending like education which is classified as consumption, while it may include ill-designed investment spending. The 60 percent debt/GDP was chosen because it was the average of EU countries when the Maastricht Treaty was being negotiated, with not even the pretense of any justification. Independence In EMU, Independence from political authorities will allow the System to define a monetary policy aimed at the statutory objective of price stability. Independence also requires the System to possess the powers necessary to implement monetary policy decisions. Central Bank independence is essential for the credibility of the move to Monetary Union. The EMI has established a list of features of central bank independence, distinguishing between features of an institutional, personal and financial nature. 16Institutional independence is a feature of central bank independence, which is expressly referred to in Article 107 of the Treaty. This Article prohibit the ECB, the NCBs and members of their decision making bodies from seeking or taking g instructions from Community institutions or bodies, from any government of a Member State or from any other body. It also prohibit Community institutions and bodies and the governments of the Member States from seeking to influence the members of the decision-making bodies of the NCBs whose decisions may have an impact on the fulfillment by the NCBs of their ESCB-related tasks. Personal independence is provided with the Article is that a minimum term of office for a governor is five years. It also gives protection against the arbitrary dismissal of governors. Financial independence is also a requirement for an independent central bank. The finances of an independent central bank do not come under the budget authority of Parliament nor are they subject to approval by the Mister of Finance. His influence on the distribution of the central bank's profit is circumscribed by law in a transparent way. The authority of state organs to verify the accounts of the central bank may not lead to an influence on its policies. Thus, the function of a State audit body is limited to the scrutiny of the central bank's efficiency. The effects of Euro on Turkey The Association Agreement of Ankara of 1963 recognized the objective of a gradual establishment of a Customs Union between turkey and the EU, with a view to the possible accession of Turkey into the EU at a later stage. Following several delays, the agreement implementing the final phase of the Customs Union was signed on December 22, 1995 and entered into force on December 31, 1995. Turkey as a candidate country should be in the position to participate in EMU as non-participants in the euro area, but still need to make substantial 17efforts towards macroeconomic stabilization. On the other hand, Turkey will undoubtedly be affected from the EMU which most likely will produce various outcomes for the country's structural change observed in its markets as well as for a new design of its economic policies. The EMU and the introduction of the euro is very important for Turkey considering its close relation ship with the EU. The EU area is Turkey's largest partner. In 1998, 50 percent of exports and 52 percent of imports were to and from EU countries, reflecting the increase in trade relations since the Customs Union Agreement came into force at the end of 1995. The ability of the candidate countries to adhere to the aims of EMU was explicitly mentioned by the Copenhagen European Council as one of the criteria for EU membership. Policy makers in these countries interpreted this as meaning that their countries should meet the Maastricht criteria on inflation, government deficit, public debt, long-term interest rates and exchange rate stability as a precondition for joining the EU. However, the Maastricht convergence criteria are not accession criteria. The Copenhagen criteria refer to ability of applicant countries to adhere to the aims of EMU rather than the ability to actually join the euro area. As Turkey is a member of the Customs union, it well be affected in medium and long term positively by the economic growth and welfare of the union. Moreover the introduction of euro will enhance the competition and Turkey can enjoy the external benefits of the enhanced competition. Though in this period Turkey must take necessary precautions and implements structural reforms to manage with the inflation and to stabilize the value of its currency against euro. The extent of he effects of the last stage through the economic integration, the introduction of he common currency on the Turkish financial sector -the capital and money markets and financial institution- are still indeterminate. Beside the precautions that the European financial institution are taking in the changeover process and their adjustment strategies are worthwhile 18to analyze. Especially the wave of mergers in the banking sector signals a similar development in the Turkish banking sector and it will be very useful. The decrease of the exchange rate risk and the further decrease of the interest rates with the introduction of euro will reduce the transaction costs and will have positive impact on the relations of the Turkish financial sector with the union. The banks are already reserving the adequate information technology resources in anticipation of the changeover processes however a long and costly preparation period consisting of evaluating and adapting the information systems is necessary in order to be effective and operational both during and after the transition period to the euro. In fact the Turkish Central Bank started to carry out the adjustment of the national regulation system, Foreign Currency Accounts, with letter of guaranty the acceptance of the Turkish banking sector to the TARGET payment system. The start of economic and monetary union will result in a tendency of the interest rates and the profitability (due to the increased competition) to decrease. Turkish financial sector where the risk and profitability are at high levels this will most probably stimulate the investments. There are different aspects of the relation between Turkey and EU. For example in EU, all member states should ensure that their national legislation including the central bank statutes is compatible with the Treaty and the Statutes of the ESCB: This implies that their central bank governors should be elected for terms of no less than five years and should only be dismissed under circumstances of serious misconduct or inability to perform their duties, that their central banks should not take any instructions from the government and that they should have as primary objective the maintenance of price stability. The Central Bank of Turkey Board consists of Governor and 6 other members. The governor is appointed by the government for 5 years upon Board proposal. Other members are appointed for 3 years by the CB's General Assembly of Shareholders. All members can be reappointed. Within this.qontexfy it should be said that although the Turkish CB enjoys a degree of factual independence, 19its statutes still need to be aligned to assure the full legal independence of the monetary authorities. The Maastricht Treaty requires all countries to renounce any from of direct central bank financing of government deficits. Turkey has flexible rules on central bank financing. She allows advances from the central bank and leaves freedom to the central bank and government to agree on the interest rate applied. As a result, although Turkey had taken a number of steps to reduce the de facto access of their treasuries to central bank financing, she still need to reform substantially her rules on the matter to comply with EU standards. Liberalization of Capital Flows is also important in EU: Turkey undertook a substantial liberalization of its capital account during the 1980s and first half of the 1990s, partly reflecting its obligations as a member of the OECD. The prospect of EU membership increases pressure on non-EU candidate countries to continue to make progress towards developing a healthy, efficient, and market-oriented financial sector. However, Turkish financial sector still suffers from a number of problems. The Impact of the euro on Turkey can be classified as systemic which are stability of euro and portfolio reallocation and effects on the Balance of payments which has an effect on trade of goods and services. EMU is likely to have o positive effect on European growth. This favorable effect is expected to come from a combination of developments, such as price and exchange rate stability and fiscal consolidation policies. The launch of euro is expected to enhance the benefits brought about the completion of the single integrated European market. The degree of the euro to influence the Turkish economy will be related to its future trend vis-â-vis the USD, JPY and naturally,,the TL. The appreciation of the euro in foreign markets will cause an increase in Turkish 20exports ad a fall in imports. On the other hand, in order to have a more accurate view about the net impact on the exports and imports, one must look at the movement of other exchange rates such as the USD and JPY vis-â-vis the euro, which Turkey uses, in its foreign trade. Within the context, Turkey is expected to gain both enhanced opportunities and stronger competition in EU markets and will take advantage of the lower borrowing costs stemming from more competitive European financial markets. A positive output effect in the order of 0.3% of GDP is projected for the developing countries taken as a group after lOyears. With Europe being the major market destination of Turkish exports, the growth effect in Turkey is likely to exceed that for developing countries. According to another IMF study, 1 percent higher GDP in the EMU countries positively influence the rate of output in Turkey by 0. 1 percent and the rate of exports by 0.8 percent. Econometric studies made in Turkey indicate that Turkish exports towards the OECD countries are sensitive to the revenue increases in these countries. Another analysis shows that the positive impact of the euro on the economic growth of the EMU countries will accelerate the rate of increase of the Turkish exports by 200. In this light, the expected economic growth and the trade creation effect resulting from that economic growth would be beneficial for Turkey in the case of the realization of some factors. These are the followings:. Macroeconomic and political stability in Turkey. Strategies, which Turkish firms, would apply to increase their competitiveness. Policies implemented in the euro area and the effect and extension of these polices J 21. Capacity of the euro to become a payment/vehicle and intervention currency in international markets.. Stability of the euro against the major international currencies such as the USD and JPY. Demand elasticity of the euro-zone countries against the Turkish export products.. Foreign trade elasticity of the euro-zone countries' economic growth. Recapitulating the matter, it can be said that whether it has positive or negative effects, this transformation has results on Turkey. Turkey should be aware of that and doing so, he should take the necessary steps as early as possible. 22
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