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Derecelendirme yöntemi ile risk analizi ve otomotiv sektörüne uyarlanması

Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.

  1. Tez No: 106542
  2. Yazar: AYÇA TÜKEL
  3. Danışmanlar: PROF. DR. NİYAZİ BERK
  4. Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
  5. Konular: İşletme, Business Administration
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 2001
  8. Dil: Türkçe
  9. Üniversite: Marmara Üniversitesi
  10. Enstitü: Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Bankacılık Ana Bilim Dalı
  12. Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: 136

Özet

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Özet (Çeviri)

SUMMARY The integration process starting from 1980' s reguires some from movements as a need of free market economy especially in developing cuntries. These innovations are especially relates to finance system. Investors of international markets have faced the riskes resulting from rapidly changing financing alternatives.Investors need enough reformation in order to decrease the risk. The rating issue which means trust, safety and stronght, is important as provides fast and unstable financial information. Rating is indepently examining whether the companies will obey their responsibilities on time and the way they promised or not. By rating the information is provided to investor with symbols that are concise and easy to understand. These symbols help the investors in deciding process. Rating has an important position in settlements of trust issue in finance markets as it continues to develop. As a result of the need for rating technigue which is used in loan evalution and payment availability, the number of rating companies is increasing. Although rating is common in developed countries, it has been ignored in our country for a long time. Finance coopperations, as weel as banks, do not have sufficient financial sources for their responsibilities.Rating firms are able to inform us about the risk management between banks and markets. Rating is in favor of not only investors but also of an organization or a person demading fund and even in favor of country. With rating, investor can be informed about their credit and their risk and people demanding fund can provide their exports to a wider variety of investors. A well rating process provides a capital market which helps making short and long term investment decisions, support public transparency and trust. A well qualified rating will prevent speculative actions in markets as well as inviting foreign capital, with the help of rating, companies can reach directly to finance sources and this decreases cost. It is a very important pointy if trust that rating companies are working independently without being affected by government or my other intutition. If FORD OTOSAN A.Ş which has been analysed in the practise, had been rated by independent rating firm, the company's credibility would have been offered to investor's attention.This would directly affect the firm's debt expences, debt interest rate and fund source availability related to these. Rating operations are profitable not only for investors but also for those who demand fund. Rating provides the investor fast and trustable information about the risk of the planned investment, so dept expense decreases. The advantage of this process for the national economy is that capital enterance of international investment increases. The deficiency of international investment increases. The deficiency of our country in this aspect is that rating process is not obligatory yet. Today, as a result of liberation, the need for integrational markets has increased. It is necessary to make legal regulations in order to integrate to international markets. The most important point in making these legal regulations is transforming trustable and satisfactory information to investors. Rating, which is defined as the risk of the exporters abilitiy of payment, is the most effective and trustable way of providing information.Although rating is usually made for companies, institutions, banks, it includes countires as the rated institutions are related to the economic, legal and politicial conditions of the country they are activating. Rating firms, guide the investors by proving their grades with various symbols. Another important use of rating is creating an objective measure suitable for free market criterias. The rates given by rating firms are very effective on invertors behaviours. These rates are also important for countries demanding fund as they specify out source opportunities and expenses. In our country, although rating sholud be very important as it enlights public, informs investors on time, supports integration ; it is not working on desired level because of lack of legal regulations and obligations. At this point, a sample from automobile sector is tested and examined in a plan made up of four sections. At the first part, description of rating process, its history, objectives leading rating firms and the rated firms and their status are explained. Rating firms organizational stuctures, the symbols they use and working conditions are examined.At the second part, informations about the proceses between the rating firms and the rated firms from the first meeting to the last level are given. At the third part, automobile sector has been considered. The development and history of the sector has been examined. At the fourth part, a sample firm from automobile sector has been anaylized and rated. Rating has been made with DemRate technigue which is used by Demirbank A.Ş. in credit analysis. After a detailed information about the analysis technigue. This technigue has been applied to a sample firm which is Ford Otosan A.Ş.Rating Firms The first samples of rating firms are commercial loan firms that investigates whether traders will be able satisfy their financial obligations or not. The first commercial loan company was established by Louis TAPPAN in Newyork in 1841. Robert DUN published the first rating list in 1859. A smilar company was established by John BRADSTREET in 1849. In 1933 these two companies were joined as DUN and BRADSTREET. And this company was named MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE in 1962. In 1900 when the U.S.A railway bonds were rated, rayting baceuse important. POOR'S Publishing Company made the first rating grade in 1916. Standart Staties in 1922 and Fitch Publishing in 1924, published their rates by examining save firms. Poor's Publishing and Standart Statics joined and named Standard & Poor's in 1941. Today, the rating market is shared by Moody's Investor Services, Standart & Poor's Corporation and Fitch. 1«.Î5Symbols like“ AAA, AA,, C”have been international symbols after they were used in John MOODY'S work of Railway investment analysis in 1909. Numeric Symbols like“1,2,3”have also been used for every group from Aa to Baa. 1 stands for the highest, 2 stands for modium and 3 stands for the lowest level. Moody's descriptions criterias used for risk rating are as follows ; Long Term Transferable Values ; Aaa : Minimum investment risk. First class transferable values ( gilt - edged ) are of this class. This means high transtability. Aa : Affected more by the changes in market. However, as well - qualified as the ones in Aaa ( high - grade bonds ) A : Upper - medium - grade obligations. Trustable for the investor but probability of aspects increasing risk. Baa: These are medium - gradeobligations. Their trustibilities are easily affected by changes. They are also easily affected by speculative attraction.Ba : The members of this group are totally uncertain. They might change in long - term. B_: Law probability of obeying their obligations and responsibilities. Caa : High risk of unpayment, weak trustability. Ca : Very speculative. Usually no payment of capital and interest. C_: Shows no quality of real investment. Short - Term Transferable Values : Moody's preferred to use a different method for these because of different risk characters. PI ( prime 1 ) : Very high at responsibilities. P2 ( prime 2 ) : Quite high at responsibilities. P3 ( prime 3 ) : More sensitive to market conditions compared to PI and P2. Not Prime : Transferable goods that are not involved in the other 3 groups.Issues Considered in Risk Rating Rating firms work on two topics while making rating operations. First is whether the exporter company has enough financial sources or not ; second is whether the company is willing to pay or not. There is no single model in risk rating. Moody's emphasizes the following 10 issues in its analysis: - Administration Enviroment : Economic conditions of the country that the firm is in and the situation of the firm in those conditions. - Administration Performance : Financial outputs of the firm ( at least of three years ) are involved in the analysis in order to specify the firms administration performance. - Stability ( Determination ) Structure : The firms revenue and product costs, miscellenqous revenues and costs. - Capital Structure : The importance of a capital structure in good condition is high. Changes in the capital through three years, reconsideration activities and future expectations are considered. - Asset Quality : The market share, selling trade competition power are issues affecting asset quality. There is a positive correlation between the asset structure strength and ability of payment.International Operations : A way of having the advantage towards the other firms is working in international markets. In analysis the firms rate of domestic and international sales to the total sales in founs. Assets / Liabilities Management : The firms debt is examined and the firm is expected to make profit by paying debts with receivables. Liquidity : Liquidity sources are examined. Source : The company's ability of acquiring fund and the cost of these is examined. Budget / Plan : As the firm decided objectives according to budget, budget performance, financial statement predictions for the next three years, short - medium - long term objectives are issues to be examined. 10A Glance At Automobile Sector Automobile Industry is under control of the USA, EU, JAPAN. There are three degree between 1910 - 1990. Mass Production starting in Ford, in 1910 Production related to product diversity in Mass pruduction made by European producers in late 1950' s Pure production that makes Japan world number one since 1970' s Car production in the world is concantrated especially in eight countries which are Japan, Usa, Germany, France, Spain, England, Italy and South Korea 75 % of the total production is made by those countries. The years that Turkish automobile industry was launched were when the industrialized western societies developed their own car industry. Automobile industry is the third biggest in Turkey after Food and Texstile industries. The first automobile factory started with Ford capital in 1929 in Tophane. Ford's intention was to dominate the Balkans and Middle East markets but could not succeed. 11The great depression affected Turkey, prevented export so Ford stopped production. It is possible to say that demand for cars increased in 1950's as a result of developing domestic trade and increasing wealth. In early 1950's, Turkish Willyo Overland A.Ş. has launched a factory in Tuzla in order to satisfy Turkish Army's need of motor vehicles. In 1955 Turkish Automobile Institute was launched making truck mounting. While loan demands are evaluated, - Financial Analysis - Risk measure / evaluation are considered. DemirRating is a program, working by giving concise information pieces, financial statement, revenue chart information in order to introduce the company and identifying a firm rate and class by making financial and non -financial evaluations of the firm. 12Characteristics of the program DemirRating Program is made up of two modules. Module 1 The module where financial evaluation is made according to financial outputs. Module 2 The module where financial evaluation is made as a result of information from investigation about the firm. THE APPLICATION OF DEMRATE PROGRAM TO FORD OTOSAN A.Ş. Koç Holding Company launched OTOSAN in July 13th, 1959. Otosan has been the first institution of Turkish aotomobile industry with the first Turkish car ANADOL which was first produced in 1966. Otosan is the first producing diesel engine. Ford, which was partner of Otosan with 30 % in 1983, because a partner with 50% in 1997 so the company named Ford OTOSAN. 13July 26th, 1998 Ford OTOSAN started the biggest automobile investment ever been made in Turkey. Now, in partnership of the company Koç Holding and Ford Motor Company equal shares of 41.04 %. tic. ÖîS»*5 14

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