Turkish macroeconomic cycles in the EU perspective: A convergence discussion
AB perspektifinde Türkiye'nin makroekonomik döngüleri: Bir yakınsama analizi
- Tez No: 158427
- Danışmanlar: PROF. DR. AYSU İNSEL
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2005
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: Marmara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.
Özet
Özet yok.
Özet (Çeviri)
ABSTRACT The thesis studies the macroeconomic cycles in Turkey deliberating the convergence subject in the context of EU. The question of the thesis is if the Turkish economy approaches to EU economies in the frame of growth, GDP, Investment and current account balance variables. The quantitative analysis of the paper includes volatility, correlation and cross correlation analysis. It has been found that growth, investment and current account balance are not strongly correlated with the union economies while the GDP is. On the volatility front economic aggregates of Turkey fluctuates less than the average of the selected country group. Finally it is concluded that Turkish economy is a bit far to represent the common fundamentals of bloc economies and approach to EU. First section tn'es to explain the evolution of business cycle theory, starting from the empiricists to real business cycle theories to make a better understanding of the section two. Section two analyzes the role of EU on generating and affecting business cycles in Turkey and also to clarify whether a growth comovement or volatility appear under the conditions of EU. The economic variables of GDP, Investment and Current Account Balance are selected for the study to test the convergence to EU. And finally section three reviews the final remarks on some economic aggregates to make a better conclusion in the convergence context. In the thesis it is concluded that the GDP of Turkey does not significantly comoves with EU. The GDP cycles do not have much to say for EU cycles and vice versa. The current account balance and investment patterns are related to EU story. As the GDP increases the current account deficit increases with a financing strategy by the FDI in line with considering the EU story as an anchor.
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