Gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik uluslararası sermaye hareketleri ve Türkiye
International capital flaws to emerging markets Turkey
- Tez No: 106781
- Danışmanlar: Y.DOÇ.DR. ÖZLEM KOÇ
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2001
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Marmara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Sermaye Piyasası ve Borsa Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 168
Özet
Özet yok.
Özet (Çeviri)
SUMMARY The most significant effect of international capital investments to a country is capital flows. The advantages of foreign capital are that the local corporations prepare themselves the challenges of global competition, integration to the world markets, adaptation of new technologies. Additionally, foreign investment also increases employment, enhances the quality of specialized labor, regulates the distribution of income, endures the utilization of natural resources in an effective and efficient manner and link the country to the world through their network. The definition of foreign investment, based on balance of payments transactions between residents and non-residents, refers to investment made by individuals or enterprises that have their centre of economic interest in an economy other than the economy in which they invest. The definition and classification of international accounts presented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Balance-of-Payments Manual, foreign investment is classified into the following components: (a) direct investment; (b) portfolio investment; (c) other investment. Foreign Direct Investment is the category of international investment in which a resident entity in one economy obtains a lasting interest in an enterprise resident in another. A lasting interest implies the existence of a long-term relationship between the direct investor and the enterprise and a significant degree of influence by the investor on the management of the enterprise. The criterion used is that“a direct investment is established when a resident in one economy owns 10% or more of the ordinary shares or voting power of an incorporated enterprise, or the equivalent for an unincorporated enterprise. All subsequent transactions between affiliated enterprises, both incorporated and unincorporated, are direct investment transactions”. Direct investment includes equity capital, reinvested earnings, and other capital (or intercompany debt transactions). Direct investment enterprises comprise subsidiaries (in which a non-resident investor owns more than 50% of the capital), associates (in which a non-resident investor owns 50%'or less) and branches (wholly or jointly owned unincorporated enterprises). -., '.Foreign Portfolio Investment includes a variety of instruments which are traded (or tradeable) in organized and other financial markets: bonds, equities and money market instruments. The IMF even includes derivatives or secondary instruments, such as options, in the category of FPL The channels of cross-border investments are also varied: securities are acquired and sold by retail investors, commercial banks, investment trusts (mutual funds, country and regional funds, pension funds and hedge funds). Because of the lack of transparency on transactions undertaken by some of these investors, it is still difficult to get a precise estimate of the size of FPI made in emerging markets. Although the emerging markets increased their importance in the last decade, a full definition of the emerging markets could not yet be given. The biggest reason of this is, the different characteristics of the emerging markets. For operational and analtical purposes, the World Bank's main criterion for classifying economies ise gross income (GNI) per capita. Based on its GNI per capita, every economy is classfied as low income, middle income (subdiveded into lower middle and upper middle), or high income. Low income and middle income economies are sometimes referred to as developing economies. According to this classfication, The groups are: low income, US$ 755 or less; lower middle income, US$ 756-2,995; upper middle group, US$ 2,996-9,265; and high income, US $9,266 or more. Although the emerging markets took 85% share of World Population, its share in World GNI was 21% in 1999 Net private flows from international capital markets to developing countiries as a group increased in 2000. The private flows consist of foreign direct investment, portfolio equity investment and private loans. FDI increased to US$ 178 bn when portfolio euity investment rose to US$ 47.9 bn. The characteristics of the emerging markets are a market with an average market capitalization and low dividend yield, high turnover ratio, an increasing weight of the capital markets in the economy, low average company size, high concentration decreasing thechance of diversification, deregulation and increasing accessibility, illiquidity and lack of depth, high transaction costs, low level of trustable information and continously changing infrastructure. According to the criterias mentioned above, Argentina, Brasil, China, Egypt, Turkey, Poland, Israel, Corea, Malaysia, Taiwan nad Russia are the main emerging markets. In the emerging markets systematic risks are sensible than non-systematic risks. Systematic risk or market risk is not effected from the own dynamics of the financial organization that it belongs to but from some factors such as war, stagnation, high interest rates, etc. from which the entire economic system is effected. Systematic risks are sperated as political, economic, law and other such as custody, accounting standards. The instruments used in the emerging markets, we can classify them as direct and indirect instruments. Direct instruments are the securities such as stocks, bonds, or REIT's where the indirect ones are investment or country funds., ADR-GDRs and future-options contracts. The indirect instrurments are used especialy when there are FX transfer limits or some other limits to the capital flow, or to increase the accessibility such as ADRs. The only different instrument here is the future-options contracts, which offer a way for hedging against the systematic risk. As the indirect instruments are not the pure ones, there may be a lot of ways to create one and each market can have its own. The overall trends and prospects in private-source external financing for emerging markets reflect a sharp change from the mood of the early and mid-1990s. Emerging capital markets seperated into two parts such as stock markets and bond markets. As mentioned above the World Bank's main criterion for classifying emerging markets, its stock market is also called emerging stock markets as the IFC call. As of 2000 stock markets in emerging markets constitued 8.5% of all over the world's stock markets. This ratio was 13% in 1994 and generally constitued between %8 and 10%.World bank classifaction is not enough for describing emerging capital markets also IFC call some characateristics as an emerging markets. First criteria is the total market capitalization of the market. In the top 25 countries in terms of market capitalization wee see 8 countries in 2000. Generaaly developed countries get the high levels in the rankings The second criteria is the total value traded. Volume is the main indicator in terms of determine the liqidty and the depth of the market. We see the high ranks are occupied by the developped markets such as USA, Japan, and England. Only two emerging markets entered the in the top 25 markets. Turkey took place as the 19th in the ranking. The third criteria that we use is the number of listed companies. We have tu use this criteria after filtering from the the criteria of avreage company size. By the combined usage of these two criterias, we can say that in the emerging markets! there are more companies listed on the rankings and the average size of the companies are obviously low in the emerging markets. The place of the capital markets is also an important criteria for us. We see that in the emerging markets, the place of the capital markets is small but growing faster. We usually analyze this as total value traded/GNP or total market cap/GNP. Concentration, another important for the emerging markets, indicates the weight of the most traded or biggest shares in the entire market. Analyzing the detailed calculations by IFC, we see that the emerging markets face a huge concentration where on the developped markets, the problem is minimal The last criteria can be summarized as accessibility and the inadequacy of the legal infrastructure. On most of the emerging markets, legal infrasture is not developped and sometimes the foreign access may be limited. The only way to determine the inadequancy is to analyze the legal codes of the markets.Like the investments in emerging markets, the international investments are also to subjected some factors, which can be classified as Global risk, Country risk and microeconomic risk. According yo he modern portfolio theory, we have two main risk type: systematic and non-systematic risk. With the notion of systematic risk, we state the risk of all the financial products in the market. Thinking for a global market, the systematic risk means world market's risk. To decrease the systematic risks in the emerging markets, portfolio managers use diversification. On the other hand the non-systematic risk will contain the country risk and the microeconomic risk. The country risk accepted as a systematic risk for a local investment will become a non-systematic risk in a global portfolio. A global risk is a factor which can effect the entire world, such as a war, a complete stagnation, etc. The Gulf crises is the best example for that The country risk, being totally different, includes various risk such as financial risk of that country, FX regime, allocation of sources, debt service capacity and market indicators. A microeconomic risk, on the other hand, includes the financial risk of the companies. So microeconomic risks are always non- systematic risk, whether in a local or international investment. To obtain efficient portfolios on global basis, portfolio managers generally use the CAPM of course upgraded for the international use. This new model can be named as international Capital Asset Pricing Model-ICAPM. As we all know, to use the CAPM formula we needed a market portfolio and a risk free rate. On glonal basis, we can use Morgan Stanley Capital International (MS CI) or International Finance Corportaion (IFCI) indices. Also other indices can be used. For the risk-free rate, managers prefer to take the yield of the 9-month US t-bill. The 1990s brought considerable improvements in the investment climate, influenced in part by the recognation of the benefits of FDI. The change in attitudes, in jA6i^|ec^t®ua % &-İ-.*.-X removal of direct obstacles to FDI and to an increase in the use of FDI incentives. ContinueuV removal of domestic impediments through deregulation and privatisation; was also*;. widespread. Deregulation and enhanced competition policy made M&A morfe viable in thetelecomunications, electricity, other public utilities and financial services sectors, while privatisation programmes provided opportunities for international investment. The sale of stare-owned companies to foreign investors represented a large share of the source of FDI, particularly among new members to the OECD and in some emerging economies. In addition to the structural factors, the growth of FDI depends heavily on the business cycle in both home and host companies. The continuing expansion in the US helped global FDI flows gain and maintain momentum. The quick recoveryof Asian countries previously affected by finacial crises contributed to this trend. Regional agreements to foster investment flows also paved the way for aa higher level of FDI. Evidence on the expansion of international production over the past two decades abounds. Gross product associated with international production and foreign affiliate sales worldwide, two measures of international production, increased faster than global GDP and global exports, respectively. Sales of foreign affiliates worldwide (US$ 14 trillion in 1999, US$ 3 trillion in 1980) are now nearly twice as high as global exports, and the gross product associated with international production is about one-tenth of global GDP, compared with one-twentieth in 1982. The ratio of world FDI inflows, whichstood at US$865 billion in 1999, to global gross domestic capital information is now 14%, compared with 2% twenty years ago. Similarly, the ratio of World FDI stock to world GDP increased from 5% to 16% during the same preiod. And the number of transnational parent firms in 15 developed home countries increased from some 7,000 at the end of the 1960s to some 40,000 at the end of the 1990s. Driven by the recent wave of cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) global FDI outflows reahed US$800 billion in 1999, an increase of 16% over the previous year. Indications are that FDI flow in 2000 may well surpass the one-trillion-dollar mark. After stagnating in 1998, FDI flows to developing countiries have resumed their earlier growth trend. In 1999, developing countries received US$208 billion in FDI, an increa.se qf-l^K over 1998 and all-time high. The share of developing countries in global FDÎ inflows has, however, fallen, going from 38% in 1997 to 24% in 1999. : :, 'Developing countries attracted US$ 636 billion in FDI flows in 1999, nearly three quaryers of the world's total. The United States and the United Kingdom were the leaders as both investors and recepients. With US$ 199 billion, the United Kingdom became the largest outward investor in 1999, forging ahead of the United States. Large M&As in the United states, driven partly by the continuing strength of its economy, rendered it the largest recepient of FDI with US$ 276 billion, nearly one-third of the world total. Contrary to general expectations, FDI flows to East and South-East Asia increased by 11%, to reach US$ 93 billion in 1999. The increase was mainly in newly industrializing economies (Hong kong, China, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan Privince of china), whose inflows increased by almost 70%. In the Republic of Korea, FDI inflows reached an unprecented US$ 1 0 billion. Inflows to Singapore and Taiwan Privince of China experinced a significant recovery after a sharp decline in 1998. Flows to China, which had been well above US$40 billion for four consecutive years, dropped by nearly 8%, to just over US$ 40 billion in 1999. Behind the recovery of FDI in the region lies intensified efforts to attract FDI, including greater liberalization at the sectoral level and increase cross-border M&As. Cross- border M&As in the five countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Republic of Korea and Tahailand) most affected by the recent crises reached a record level of US$ 15 billion in 1999. FDI in South Asia declined in 1999 by 13%, to US$ 3.2 billion. Inflows to india, the single largest recipient in the sub-region, were US$ 2.2 billion. FDI flows to Central Asia declined slightly in 1999 to US$ 2.9 billion, losing the momentum exhibited during the initial phases of liberalization and regulatory reform. FDI flows to West Asia increased to US$ 6.7 billion, with Saudi Arabia receiving most of the new investment. FDI flows to Latin America and the Caribbean contiuned to increase in 1999, reaching a new record level of US$90 billion, a 23% increase over 1998. For the fourth consecutive year, Brazil was the largest recipient in the region, with US$31 billion in investment inflows, mostly in non-tradable services and domestic market-oriented maufacturing.Argentina's inflows more than tripled, reaching U$ 23 billion in 1999, it overtook Mexico as the region's second largest recipient. Mexico received US$11 billion in 1999, mainly in export-oriented manufacturing. A significant part of FDI flows to Latin America has entered through M&A deals, which reached a value of US$ 37 billion in 1999. In 1999, FDI flows into Central and Eastern Europe increased for the third consecutive year, reaching US$23 billion. Still, the region accounted for less than 3% of global FDI flows. Poland, the Czech Republic and the Russian Federation continued to be the top recipients of FDI flows. In relation to the size of the economies, Estonia, Hungary and the Czech Republic are the region's leaders. The size of the domestic market in the case of large recipients, such as Poland, or privatization programmes allowing the participation of foreign investors, as in the case of Czech Republic, are the principal determinants of FDI in the region. Despite a modest rise in FDI flows to Africa from US$8 billion in 1998 to US$10 billion in 1999 the region's performance remains lackluster. FDI flows to Africa stabilized at much higher levels than those registered in the early 1990s, in response to the sustained efforts of many countries to create more business-frindly environments. Some countries, such as Angola, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa and Tunisia, have attracted sizeable amounts of FDI in recent years. Turkey, situated at the crossroads where two continents meet, is an ideal center for investors looking for a location at the heart of Euro- Asia. With its dynamic and growing economy, huge market, competitive&skilled labor force, Turkey offers numerous opportunities to international investors. The liberal foreign investment legislation and the experience of more than 5500 foreign capital firms ensures a stable and reliable investment environment. Turkey has one of the most liberal foreign exchange regimes in the world; with a fully convertible currency as well as a policy that allows foreign institutional and individual investments in securities listed on the ISE since 1989. There are no restrictions on foreign i portfolio investors trading in the Turkish securities markets. Decree No. 32 passed inAugust 1989, removes all restrictions on overseas institutional and individual investment in securities listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange. Hence, the Turkish stock and bond markets are open to foreign investors, without any restrictions on the repatriation of capital and profits. Decree No. 32 also allows Turkish citizens to buy foreign securities. Equity investment by foreign investors in the Istanbul Stock Market reached US$ 4.7 billion as of June, 2001. Also net purchases by foreign investors in stock market was US 310 million between January and June. Foreign transactions constitute %15 of ISE total volume. Foreign investors mostly trade in National-30 shares which have high floating market capitalization and high liquidity in terms of tradable As wee can see from the emerging markets criterias, ISE has a small but rapid growing market capitalization, improving trading volume, a huge turnover ratio and concentration, small but improving average company size and important placa in the economy Foreign direct investment regime of Turkey is mainly formulated by the Law No. 6224 of 1954 Concerning the Encouragement of Foreign Capital, which is based on the principle of equal treatment for domestic and foreign investors. Almost all sectors of the economy open to private domestic investors are also open to foreign participation However there are some other legislation having provisions relating to rights and obligations of foreign investors and in some cases setting some restrictions for them. These legislative arrangements regulate specific sectors like broadcasting, aviation, maritime transportation, petroleum, and mining with the aim of ensuring national security, public order and health, professional standards. The restrictions are as follows; - Up to 20% equity participation in broadcasting - Up to 49% participation in aviation, maritime transportation, port services and value- added telecommunications services - Real estate trading and fishing are closed to foreign investorsReal and legal persons resident abroad must bring a minimum US$ 50.000 per person to establish corporations, become partners in existing companies and opening branch offices. In the case of that the number of foreign shareholders is above one, the participation amounts of foreign partners in total capital can be arranged freely. FDI flows to Turkey, US$ 35 million in 1980, reached US$ 1 billion. Average FDI flows was US$ 1 billion in 1990s. Especially FDI increased a record level of US$ 1.7 billion as a result of IS-Tim enterprise. Totally Turkey attracted US$ 14 billion in FDI flows between 1980-2000 years The major problems of the foreign investors who operate in Turkey through establishment of companies, participation in already existing companies, or through the establishment of branch offices in Turkey pursuant to Law No. 6224, Council of Ministers Decree No. 95/6990, or other relevant legislation. Foreign capital plays a vital significance for countries like Turkey, who have not yet accomplished their development in full scale. The only way to materialize the investments that could not have been put into practice due to the inadequacy of savings, is to utilize foreign capital. In a similar manner, the accomplishment of large scale projects that require substantial investments, that imply high risk and that necessitate international know-how, is only possible through the involvement of foreign capital endowed with a high level of expertise in the relevant fields. One of the biggest problems that all companies operating in Turkey are exposed to, disregarding whether they are local or international corporations, is the high rate of inflation. For the last twenty years, Turkish economy is suffering from a high inflationary environment and the foreign investors who maintain their accounts and records in foreign currency as well as in Turkish lira, feel themselves more exposed to the impacts of inflation, and feel helpless against the erosion of the foreign capital that they bring to Turkey under the devaluation that is created by the inflationary environment The fact that inflationaccounting has not been adopted in spite of the soaring inflation, and the taxation of the profits that have become fictitiously augmented with the impact of inflation, rather than the profits that are refined against the inflationary effects bear substantial deterrent effects on the foreign investors. Added to these negative developments the effects created by the off-the-records economy, the chances for the corporations with foreign capital to do business in Turkey, are reduced to a great extent. Many foreign corporations operating in Turkey insistently refrain from getting involved in off-the-records economy, and consequently, they have lost, and are losing their market shares and their clients against those companies who prefer to collaborate in business based on off-the-records economy. Eventually, the uncertainties experienced in the relations with the European Community, economic decisions that are determined on the basis of daily preferences and evaluations, and consequently, that remain inconsistent and unreliable, creates substantial obstacles in front of the foreign capital, and avoids the investors from development of any long term plans. The zigzag pattern that is witnessed in the privatization and Build-Operate projects, the conflicts experienced in the concessionary agreements, as well as the drawbacks that are marked in the field of international arbitration creates serious risks for the prospects of foreign capital, and consequently, all these challenges oblige the limited number of companies who are in a position to take interest in such projects, to diverge their attention on other countries instead of Turkey. The problems and challenges facing the legal system, the delays that occur in the formulation of an equitable solution to legal issues, and moreover, even if the losses incurrent are compensated, the devaluation of the amounts paid in restitution due to inflationary effects, are among the deterrent factors that are considered as top priority issues for the foreign investors. The lack of specialized courts, the slowness in the operation of the legal system, and moreover, the rejection of international arbitration, result in the occurrenceof serious doubts on behalf of the foreign corporations the attainment of justice rapidly, and in full fairness Turkey remains well behind the international standards in such matters. Besides the inadequacy of the legislation in offering a full protection on these issues, the attitude of the administrative authorities in not paying the required attention, tolerance or even support of the pressures coming from the opposing parties, are beyond the limits of acceptance of the foreign investors. Accordingly, the foreign investors are very much annoyed to observe that the intangible rights that have been formed as the result of detailed and exhausting researches and substantial investments are exploited in violation and in full disregard of the stipulations and principles of international agreements, and that such infringements are systematically applied. The foreign investors attach a very high priority to their expectations from Turkey as a legal state in the fulfillment of the requirements concerning the protection of intellectual property. In the same manner, the out-of tariff obstructions encountered in conflict situations result in the waste of medium and long term benefits in favor of short term ones, which inevitably impairs confidence on Turkey in the foreign world and damages the image of Turkey on the whole. The bureaucratic formalities which the foreign corporations are faced with in practice, and that show a tendency to increase gradually, is also marked to create a number of uncertainties and complications for purposes of foreign capital. An“Undersecretariat of International Capital Movements”to be established under the Prime Ministry, in the same manner as the Undersecretariat of Foreign Investment of the Undersecretariat of Treasury, should assume office as a regulatory and supervisory authority responsible for the formulation of the principles and policies and regulations of the legislation relating to both the investments to be realized by the Turkish investors in other countries, as well as the investors realized by the foreign investors in Turkey, also responsible for the guidance of such applications and the establishment of a coordination with other governmental bodies.Within this framework, corporations establised in Turkey with foreign capital should submit all their applications relating to the establishment of operations in Turkey, making of investments, receipt of incentives, extend payments as royalties or service fees, receive residence and work permits for the foreign investors, setting up of companies, opening of branches, opening of liaison offices, realize capital increase operations, and for the performance of all relevant activities, to the Undersecretariat that is to be newly established. Economic stability is the foremost important prerequisite for attracting FDI to Turkey. Turkey's image in this respect has been severely destroyed over the last ten years and five economic crises broke out in this period due to fast deterioration in the public finances. Between 1990 and 2000 budget deficit increased by 360% and reached to US$20.7 billion and inflation averaged 80%. To restore the imbalances in the economy and thus to provide a favorable economic climate for FDI, adherence to IMF program is a must. Legislation for structural reforms has an utmost importance to instill confidence in foreign investors. Political stability is a sine qua non element for increasing FDI flow to Turkey. Turkey was ruled by nine coalition governments between 1991-2001. Weak governments, lack of political will, corruption, populist policies and leader repression in political parties were the main causes of political instability. In order to restore political stability new laws regarding the political parties and election system should be enacted. Greater transparency and accountability is needed in the Turkish political system. Cost and quality of the Turkish labour have to be competitive. Cheap, well-educated and skilled work force in Hungary and Poland gives and edge over Turkey and this reduces Turkey's competitiveness. As an example our surveys show that average wages are in Poland 40% and in Romania even 64% below the average wages in Turkey. High income tax on employees and high social security cuts should be reduced. It's a heavy burned on foreign investors. These state-cuts also reduce the“take-home-pay”of the workers.Investment incentive system must be upgraded. Turkey should offer to foreign investors at least as much or more attractive investment environment than its competitors in Eastern Europe. Inflation accounting system has to be introduced. High inflation rates are eroding investors' capital base.“Non-tariff barriers”(eg. in automotive import) which have been applied by certain ministries and red tape created for work permits and company establishments should be removed. Customs formalities have to be reduced. Export incentives has to be upgraded. Incentives had historically been less than the required amount. Nearly all other countries grant more export incentives. Today there is even more need due to the recent economic crises and severe erosion of credit facilities for the exporters. IMF stabilization program further deteriorates the situation. Eximbank resources should be strengthened. VAT rebates must be disbursed in due time. The momentum of the privatization has to be increased and“Build-Operate”projects (mainly in the energy sector) should be put into effect without any delay. These are the most attractive areas for FDI provided that the necessary legal arrangements and guarantees are established for the foreign investors. A comprehensive overhaul of the Turkish legal system is an urgent requirement for FDI. Insecurity in the outcome of some obvious court cases, lack of timely redress from courts, failure by courts to apply international arbitration decisions, unprotected“intellectual property rights”are the main drawbacks of the judicial system. Legislative harmonization with that of the EU should be accelerated. Turkey's infrastructure needs to be upgraded: Electricity is expensive and in short supply. Electricity is cheaper in Hungary and Poland. Turkish electricity generating capacity per capita is less than half of Poland and Hungary. The ratio of paved roads to the total road network in Turkey is about one third of the ratio of Poland. Railroads are in poor condition _^tgd^ ^^^^and the capacity of seaports is limited. Turkey's budget allocation for investments was mere 5% in 2000. This share will be further reduced in 2001 due to tight budget measures. Turkey cannot upgrade its infrastructure with such a low level of investment and compete with its rivals in attracting FDI. Discrimination against foreign investors in certain sectors like retail trade, insurance, engineering, petrol refineries and fuel storage should be removed. In general the Foreign Investors do not feel welcome especially not in Ankara. As a result It is possible that Turkey should attract foreign investment inflows starting with US$5-6b per annum at the initial stages and improving to the world standards, especially with the momentum attained by the build-operate-transfer model in the energy sector, once the above mentioned measures are taken rapidly. It is perfectly possible that the foreign investment inflow should add up to minimum US$3 0b per annum by 2010 which is roughly 8% of the GDP foreseen to reach US$360b by then
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