Imperfect markets, international reserves and exchange rates
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 400861
- Danışmanlar: DR. YUNUS AKSOY
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2009
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: University of London - Birkbeck
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 177
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
This thesis studies matters related to international macroeconomics and finance. The primary focus is on stylized facts and theoretical modeling of foreign exchange reserves. We further study an associated problem as regards forecasting exchange rate in real time using nonlinear modeling techniques. Firstly, a Granger-causality test is applied to explore the statistical relationship between foreign exchange reserves and key macroeconomic fundamentals for Argentina, Brazil, Korea and Turkey. The relationship appears to be significant between reserves and interest rate differentials in Argentina and Turkey, whereas it is significant between reserves and consumption differential, and reserves and net exports in Korea. Secondly, the role of foreign exchange reserves as precautionary savings in an imperfect market framework due to borrowing constraints is analyzed. It is shown that, in an economy where the borrowing constraints are endogenously determined by the level of net worth, reserve accumulation may intensify the level of market imperfection by affecting the evolution of net worth. The effect of a reserve policy on the aggregate macroeconomic variables in such a framework is studied. Thirdly, the theoretical validity of the popular conjecture that foreign exchange reserve holdings increase the creditworthiness of the sovereign debtors is tested. We document the evidence on change in communication strategies of central banks in utilizing this argument for promoting their expected reserve accumulation policies and argue that this kind of a policy is time-inconsistent in the context of an imperfect market framework due to informational asymmetries. Fourthly, the out-of-sample predictive power of real time linear monetary models with possible nonlinear adjustment in forecast errors is scrutinized. Revisions in fundamentals matter mainly for the short-term forecastbility of the exchange rate. Short term forecastability in the form of discrete nonlinear adjustment and long term forecastability in the form of a smooth nonlinear adjustment towards fundamentals is reported.
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