Managing risk and uncertainty in agricultural production
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 401046
- Danışmanlar: DR. JOHN J VANSICKLE, DR. TATIANA BORISOVA
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2013
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: Unıversıty Of Florıda
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.
Özet
Özet yok.
Özet (Çeviri)
This dissertation includes three essays on the general topic of risk in agricultural production under global competition, trade negotiations, and environmental policies. The studies address the need for developing a more comprehensive methodology to examine viable options for agricultural production given competitive / regulatory pressures. Investment, production, and/or institutional risks are examined for two important Florida vegetable crops – winter tomato and potato. The first essay focuses on market risk and analyzes the consumer perceptions of imported and domestic greenhouse tomatoes. Differential demand models are estimated. The results indicate a boom phase of growth in the U.S. greenhouse tomato market, leading to the increase in sales of both U.S. and Mexico produced tomato. The second essay comprehensively identifies and characterizes the risks involved in greenhouse tomato investment decisions. In addition to market risks, the outcomes of the investments are affected by the uncertainty in cost and yield. To examine the risks, net present value models with Monte Carlo simulation are used to analyze the viability of greenhouse investment decisions. The analysis is further extended by utilizing real option method. The results indicate that a grower would choose to continue with field-grown tomato production due to high option value and risk aversion. These results are consistent with what has been witnessed in tomato production in Florida. However, policies or market conditions such increase credit availability, increase interest rates, decrease energy prices, stabilize high tomato prices would make the greenhouse production more preferable. Finally, the third essay examines the production risk and the choices of fertilizer application rates by Florida potato producers. Nitrogen fertilizer is commonly used as a strategy to manage production risks; however, excessive nitrogen application has the potential to impact surface water quality. Using county-level data, the study explores the economically optimal nitrogen fertilizer rate by explicitly considering the production risks and producers' risk perceptions. The results show that no single fertilizer BMP can be recommended for all growers and all market conditions. Overall, the three essays contribute to the economic literature on agricultural risk management, and generate information to assist agricultural producers and policy makers.
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