Menkul kıymet yatırımlarında değerleme
The Valuation of the securuties investments
- Tez No: 46188
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ.DR. MEHMET TANYAŞ
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği, Industrial and Industrial Engineering
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1995
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 144
Özet
ÖZET Bugün dünyanın hemen hemen her ülkesinde bir Sermaye Piyasası bulunmaktadır.Ancak bu piyasalar ülkelerin gelişmişlik düzeylerine göre farklılıklar gösterir. Türkiye'de de etkin olarak 1980'li yıllarda başlatılan Sermaye Piyasasına ilişkin çalışmalar günümüzde de hızla devam etmektedir. Sermaye Piyasalarının işlerlik kazanmasıyla birlikte tasarrufçuya yeni yatırım imkanları ve yeni finansal araçlar sağlanmıştır. Şirketlerde hızla yoğunlaşan sermaye arttırımları, halka açılma istekleri ile birlikte menkul kıymet yatırım analizleri ihtiyacı artmakta ve menkul kıymet gelirinden yararlanmak üzere portföy oluşturan kişi ve kuruluşların öncelikli olarak bu piyasaları, piyasa araçlarını tanımaları ve bu konularda sağlam bilgilere sahip olmaları gerekmektedir. Bununla birlikte Sermaye Piyasalarındaki gelişme hızıyla bu piyasalarla ilgili bilgilenme hızı eşdeğerde olmamıştır. Bu konularda uzmanlaşmış kişiler dışında, tasarruf sahipleri yeterli bilgiye sahip değildir. Varolan kaynaklarda genellikle daha çok teorik düzeyde bilgiler bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada temel amaç menkul kıymet yatırımcısına menkul kıymet piyasası kavram ve araçları hakkında teorik bilgi verirken, incelenen konuların daha kolay anlaşılmasına yardımcı olacak pratik ve uygulamaya yönelik bilgilerin de verilmesidir. Çalışma yedi bölümden oluşmaktadır. Çalışmanın birinci bölümü giriş bölümüdür. İkinci bölümde; yatırım kavramı, tasarruf-yatırım ilişkisi ve yatırım kararlarından bahsedilmiştir. Üçüncü bölümde; mali sistem ve mali piyasanın tanımı yapılmış, mali piyasaları oluşturan para ve sermaye piyasa kavramları, bu piyasalarda kullanılan finansal araçların günümüz piyasa koşullarına göre anlamlan ve etkinlikleri anlatılmıştır.Dördüncü bölümde; menkul kıymet yatırımlarında risk ve getiri kavramları ele alınmıştır. Beşinci bölümde; tahvil değerlemesi ve özellikleri gösterilmiştir. Altıncı bölümde; hisse senedi değerlemesi incelenmiş ve değerlemede kullanılan yöntemlerden bahsedilmiştir. Yedinci, son bölümde; diğer bölümlerde belirtilen bilgiler ışığında, özel bir şirketin hisse senedi değerlemesi uygulama olarak gösterilmiştir.
Özet (Çeviri)
SUMMARY THE VALUATION OF THE SECURITIES INVESTMENTS Capital markets have been areas of considerable activity since 1970's, and this uptrend has continued during 1980's with a rapidly growing competitive structure and with highly promising yields through different instruments. It is obvious that the interest to this market has been mounting up each day with new people seeing the capital market as a trustworthy, safe arena where attractive yields are achieved. In line with the increasing fund requirements of the public and private companies, many governments have re-structrured or deregulated their capital markets to promote capital flows in the last decades.At a first glance, throughout the last five decades, bank debt was a primary source of finance for Turkish companies. High leverage at low borrowing rates was the modus operandi for most companies. However, the chronic inflation in the 1970's and 1980's was made high leverage a risky element for most companies. The early 1980's had significant impact on the formation of regulations and institutions in the capital markets and creating supervisory and regulatory body, the Capital Market Board, and the Istanbul Stock Exchange was opened in late 1985, commencing operations in 1986. Further impetus was given in 1989 when trading conditions for international investors were improved significantly; free repatriation of dividends, initial investment and capital gains were allowed, and taxes on capital markets were suspended. 1992 has witnessed a further consolidation and growth in the T-bills and bond market. Turnover on this screen-based market jumped from USD 312 million to USD 3,4 billion in 1993. On the other hand, a new settlement and custody company was established in the beginning of 1992 with joint support of the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and 45 members. Meanwhile, in 1992 with the passing of the new Capital Markets Law by the Parliament, more deregulation was introduced; enabling the issuance of new instruments and having measures against insider trading.For the time being, leading political parties are enthusiastic about the development of the capital markets in Turkey. To a certain extent this is related to the government's privatization program and financing needs, but also to a general realization that properly functioning capital markets improve the efficiency of the Turkish economy. The fundamental aim of this study is to discuss basic concepts and definitions of the capital markets with special reference to securities investors. The study consisted of seven chapters. Introduction is the first chapter. In the second chapter; the concept of investment, the relationship between investment and savings and general rules regarding investment decisions will be examined. In a broad sense, investment means the excess of income over expenditure on consumption, and it has two characteristics: One is time and the other one is risk. In other words, investment reflects the consumption preferences between today and the future which bear uncertainties. Thus, risk should be taken into account in every investment decision. In most cases, savings and investments are being handled through different income groups, and there are some obstacles for those in the course of having direct financial contacts. In modern market economies, there must be a financial system which will enable the fund transfers between the saving units (mostly households) and the investors. In this system; the demand for funds, suppliers of the funds, financial institutions, financial instruments and regulations will take place. In having investment decisions in a financial system, a saving unit will examine time, risk factors since every instrument has different maturity, risk- yield combinations. In the third chapter, financial markets will be defined. In other words, money and capital markets, and the meanings and efficiencies of the financial instruments which are being utilized through these markets will be discussed.Financial market is a bridge between the economic units which are having saving surplus and the units which are in savings deficit. In other words, these markets meet either private or the public sector's fund requirements. Financial markets have a significant impact on the realization of the economic activities. The mentioned markets have five main groups : Households investors, investment and financing instruments, legal and administrative regulations. Money markets meet short-term fund requirements, less than one year, or more briefly, they meet short-term fund supply and demand. Commercial banks and public institutions are the main parts of the money markets. Meanwhile, major financing instruments of these markets include; T-bills, short-term public and corporate bonds, bank bills, and all sort of commercial bills and notes. If we turn to capital markets they meet medium and long-term fund requirements of the public and private sector while they have the same financial sources with money markets. In capital markets, maturities of the borrowing instruments are mostly over one year, or more briefly, these are the markets where medium and long-term funds are allocated by the laws of supply and demand. In some cases (like having stocks) there is no maturity. The channeling of savings into investments is through securities which render either ownership such as stocks or indebtedness such as bonds. Major instruments of the capital markets are; government and public institutions' bonds, revenue sharing certificates, corporate bonds, and stocks. Meanwhile, major institutions of these markets include; investment banks, mutual funds, investment funds or trusts, intermediaries (or brokerage houses) insurance companies, pension funds and portfolio management companies. The capital market consisted of two sub-markets. One of them is the primary market where the securities are issued for the first time. Here the funds directly go to the companies which issue these securities. The other market is the secondary market where the issued securities are bought and sold by the investors. Here the fund do not flow into the companies but to investor who sell these securities to meet their liquidity requirements. The secondary markets are more active than the primary ones in terms of liquidity, and securities turnover. XllThe money and capital markets are not independent, but they have some relations. And those are: - The direction of the flow of funds is related to investment policy and the current income opportunities. - The fund demand can be met via the both markets. - The funds can flow between the money and capital markets. For instance, the government may convert the short-term debts with the long- term ones. - Some institutions may give service to both markets. For instance, they may buy or sell either the short-term or the long-term government paper. - There is a relation between the incomes of the short and long-term markets. For instance, due to liquidity shortage if the yields of the short-term funds increase, the yields of the long-term ones will also increase. - Although the existing arbitrage opportunities between these markets, money market is more sensitive than the long-term markets. In addition to these, securities in the money markets are more liquid and they bear less risk in comparing with the securities in the capital markets. In the fourth chapter, the concept of risk and yield will be defined, or in other words; the sources of risk, risk determination and the relationship between risk and yield will be examined. Risk and yield concepts are essential for investment decisions. Therefore, the sources of risk may be described as; systematic and non- systematic risk. In securities investments, risk factor may be determined in mathematical terms. In the fifth chapter, the bond valuation will be examined. And in doing so; the concept of risk, time and interest will be the integral parts of valuation. The secondary market value of a bond will be affected by; interest rate, maturity and risk factors. The interest rate and maturity are mathematical factors and the effects of those on the value of bond can be Xlllcalculated in mathematical terms. However, the determination of risk needs to examine the financials of the company. In the sixth chapter, the stock valuation and the tools of valuation will be defined. In the stock valuation; the fundamental analysis which has comprehensive analyses on economy, industry and the quoted companies on the market; and also the technical analysis will be utilized. In stock investments, it is also prerequisite that to have analyses on investment decisions, like an every investment decision. At this junction, the fundamental and technical analysis of the stock valuation will be treated as integral parts and there will be no substitution between these. In the last chapter, a case study will be presented. The aim of this study is to find out the valuation of the company " which will go to public. In having valuations; the present conditions of the macro economy, and the food sector with special reference to a macaroni manufacturing company, will be observed. And finally, the real value of the stock will be obtained through in-depth analyses on companies and balance sheets and income statements of the mentioned companies. As a result, in orienting savings into investments, securities markets are significant, especially for the developing countries. It is obvious that in the developing world, either the regulation or the operations side of the financial markets, will need more steps to reach a mature structure. And also in these countries, the economic conditions must be taken into account in having securities investments. For instance; an inflationary environment creates difficulties for investment decisions and increase risk. Therefore, saving units should consider market instruments and determine the risk level which might be tolerable for them, in having investment decisions. XIV
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