İleri imalat teknolojisi yatırımlarının ekonomik analizi
The Economic justification of investments in advanced manufacturing technologies
- Tez No: 46494
- Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. ETHEM TOLGA
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği, Industrial and Industrial Engineering
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1995
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 143
Özet
ÖZET Son yıllarda imalat süreçlerinde devrim yaparak kendini gösteren ileri imalat teknolojileri günümüz işletmelerince endüstriyel rekabetin kazanılmasında ve sürekli kılınmasında önemli bir unsur olarak görülmektedir. Entegrasyon düzeyi bakımından modüler sistemlerden, bilgisayar bütünleşik imalata kadar uzanan ileri imalat teknolojilerine yapılacak yatırımlar sonucunda esneklik, tezgah kapasitesinden daha fazla yararlanma, düşük envanter düzeyi, iyileşen mamul kalitesi, hızlı ve güvenilir üretim gibi faydalar sağlanmaktadır. Fakat bu teknolojilerin yüksek yatırım maliyetleri firmaları bu sistemleri kurup kurmama konusunda düşündürmektedir. Bu yüzden yatırım seçeneklerinin f inansal ve f inansal olmayan faydalarını ve risklerini ele alan kapsamlı bir değerlendirme yöntemine ihtiyaç vardır. Bu çalışmanın ikinci ^bölümünde ileri imalat teknolojilerinin özellikleri hakkında bilgi verilmekte, üçüncü bölümünde ise bu teknolojilere yapılacak yatırımları değerlendiren tek ölçütlü ve çok ölçütlü analiz yöntemlerine değinilmektedir. Dördüncü bölümde ise, çok ölçütlü değerlendirme yöntemlerinden biri olan analitik hiyerarşi yöntemi ile klasik değerlendirme tekniklerinden biri olan net şimdiki değer analizi birleştirilerek yeni bir yaklaşım oluşturulmaktadır. -vı ı-
Özet (Çeviri)
The introduction of microprocessors and computer conrolled production tools into industry has given a new perspective to manufacturing processes in all over the world. Computer Aided Design, Computer Aided Manufacturing, Group Technology and Computer Integrated Manufacturing which is now called Computer Integrated Enterprise are considered by many as viable tools which can reduce direct and indirect manufacturing costs, improve product quality and increase the variety of products offered. New manufacturing technologies can be considered to span a continuum in terms of level of integration from stand-alone equipment to full computer integrated manufacturing (CIM) Robots and numerically controlled (NC) machine tools are often in the stand-alone category, although they can obviously be computer integrated into other systems and equipment also such as material handling systems of manufacturing cells. The purpose of such equipment acquisitions is often to replace worn out or obsolete existing equipment. When the stand-alone systems are linked together such as in group technology (GT) lines or flexible manufacturing systems (FMS), or more loosely such as computer aided design (CAD) with computer aided process planning (CAPP) then an intermediate level of integration is achieved that exhibits a synergy between the independent systems. Other examples of such linked islands are automated storage/retrieval systems (AS/RS) with automated quided vehicle systems (AGVS) and manufacturing resource planning (MRP II) where the individual computer information systems are linked together. When the design, planning, materials handling, manufacturing and support systems (e.g. order entry, cost accounting, purchasing) are linked together through computer control the factory is considered to be fully integrated, commonly known as CIM. -vi 11-Two characteristics of all these advanced manufacturing technologies make their justification process more complex than such equipment has required in the past. First, these technologies are much more flexible, in most cases programmable than equipment has ever been before. This flexibility maintains the value of the equipment over the long run, rather than letting its value depreciate. It is observed that companies are buying such equipment now because they believe they won't be spending for more equipment later. But the advantages of this flexibility are not easily captured in simple economic justification procedures. The second characteristic of these new techologies that requires special consideration in the justification process was referred to earlier, their synergy when linked together. Users consistently report qualitative benefits from such linked systems, such as faster response to costomer requests that are deemed far more important than the normal cost savings. When such synergy is properly accounted for in the economic justification formulae, a significant increase in the calculated return on investment can be demonstrated. Such outstanding benefits are not attained without risk however, and the risk involved in the acquisition of these“ enormously expensive systems is substantial. The risk is not only financial, but organizational as well since the entire company infrastructure must often be changed to obtain the benefits these systems offer. Consistent quality of input materials, new costing and payroll systems and altered managerial structures are only a few of the many changes in the core fabric of the firm that are commanly required. The result is that therisks as well as the benefits are also inadequately considered in the economic justification procedures. New technology is believed by many to be the key to sorvival for many companies in today's highly competitive environment. Many automation technologies spread across activities from factory operations to marketing and service. If these technologies are properly selected and used, they can enhance operational efficiency, thereby pelping achieve a better competitive posture. However, almost all automation technologies are expensive and hence their selection should be carefully evaluated considering all relevant tangible (e.g. cost) and intangible factors (e.g. market response) as well as the limited resources (budget) of the company. The problems encountered in the selection of new technology include the following. -ix-(1) technical factors, dealing with the appropriateness of the new technology. (2) structural factors, dealing with reporting relationships, information and control systems and reward systems (3) behavioural-political processes, dealing with decision making systems, conflict management and power processes (4) strategic factors, dealiing with management values, financial resources and the competitive environment. Among the various road blocks to implementation of these advanced technologies which have been cited include the inability of traditional engineering economy and capital budgeting techniques as well as the lack of the accounting procedures to measure the effectiveness of new technology implementations. The majority of the recognized benefits of these advanced manufacturing technologies are considered to be ”intangible“ or ”non-monetary“ and often hard, if not impossible, to quantify and translate into values which can be easily included in traditional discounted cash flow analysis methods. Due to the high level of investment involved in implementing advanced manufacturing technologies, it is impretaive that economic evaluation be done using efficient techniques that incorporate qualitative benefits as well as quantitative ones in the evaluation process. However, the economic and financial justification analysis of advanced manufacturing technology projects are all often performed using only traditional economic analysis methods such as net present value, internal rate of return, payback period, etc. The classification scheme proposed in this thesis categorizes existing justification methods into two major groups: single criterion and multiple criteria methods. Each major group is then divided into two subgroups termed deterministic and non-deterministic methods. 1) Single criterion methods : The justification methodologies falling in this category employ a single objective to justify investment in advanced manufacturing technology. Traditional financial methods including net -x-present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), benefit/cost ratio (B/C), payback period, mathematical programing and minimal annual revenue requirement (MARR) belong to this category. This category also includes certain optimization methods and the productivity model as well as non-deterministic methods such as sensitivity analysis, decision trees, optimistic/pesimistic analysis and Monte Carlo simulation. 2) Multi-criteria methods : Like many real world problems, the decision of investing in advanced manufacturing technology frequently involves multiple and conflicting objectives, e.g., minimizing costs, maximizing flexibility, minimizing machine down times, maximizing efficiency, etc. The decision maker has to consider a number of criteria and may assign certain priorities for each criterion so that the most important criterion is satisfied first, since certain criteria are not quantitative, efficient methodologies are needed to evaluate advanced manufacturing technology benefits that are non-financial and non-quantitative in nature. Mathematical models have been developed to quantify performance measures such as productivity, quality and flexibility for justifying investment in advanced manufacturing tehnologies. Many multi-criteria techniques have been developed and applied to the problem of justfying advanced manufacturing technology. Some of the deterministic methods for solving multi-criteria problems are multi-objective mathematical programming, scoring models, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and goal programming. Non-deterministic methods include fuzzy techniques, expert systems, game theoretic methods and multi-attribute utility and value analysis. In the fourth chapter of this thesis a different appoach is introduced : The analytic hierarchy process in a present worth fromework. This method satisfies the following propositions: 1) There should be no conflict between the objectives of the decision analysis method and the objective of increasing the value of the firm. 2) Intangible and difficult to quantify factors should be considered in thedecision analysis on the basis of their economic value as implied by management judgment of their relative importance. 3) The decision analysis method employed should explicate the decision maker's assumptions and perspective on the problem so that the decision maker -xi-understands the economic value he or she is attributing to the intangibles and difficult to quantify factors. 4) The decision analysis method should monitor the internal consistency of the decision maker's opinion. 5) The decision analysis method should monitor the consistency of the decision maker's implied economic values with economic theory. In the final analysis, the capital investment decision is a judgmental decision. Detail knowledge of the economic costs and benefits improve the decision maker's ability to draw conclusions. The more these costs and benefits can be objectively measured, the less the decision maker is required to introduce pure judgments. By recognizing the nature and the purpose of the manufacturing systems they are comtemplating and then using propriate justification techniques, it is expected that firms may be better able to justify the new manufacturing systems available to them today. By doing so, they may then be able to avoid the pitfall of falling to ”economically justify" new manufacturing systems that might well determine whether they will become a competitive force in the market or disappear from it. -xii-
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