Wheat value chain analysis of Turkey: Constraints and development possibilities
Türkiye'nin buğday değer zinciri analizi: yetersizlikler ve gelişim olanakları
- Tez No: 768561
- Danışmanlar: DR. JUHÁSZ ANİKó
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: Ziraat, Agriculture
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2022
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 154
Özet
As an important nutritional source and a widely produced and traded crop around the world, wheat is an agricultural product of strategic importance. Although domestic consumption is usually below Turkey's annual wheat production volume, some amount of wheat is imported mostly for the processed wheat products industry, which has a considerable export volume. Wheat import data for the period 2009-2018 shows that Turkey's wheat imports have increased significantly especially in the last five years. In addition, according to wheat cultivation area data for the same period, cultivation area showed a decreasing trend. On the other side, population of the country increased during this period. Since wheat is an agricultural product with strategic importance, the significance of policies for the wheat sector is increasing, especially in the context of food security. Recent studies highlight different aspects of the food systems that play an important role in ensuring food security. It is understood that food security cannot be achieved solely focusing on food production. The value chain approach, which considers the entire sector rather than simply the production stage, provides a holistic perspective in this context. The aim of this research is to analyze the latest situation regarding the wheat value chain in Turkey in detail and to identify the bottlenecks in the value chain, to guide policies, and to contribute to the literature in this field. For this purpose, a three-stage analysis methodology was applied. First, it was examined whether the wheat sector in Turkey has a revealed comparative advantage, and then a comparative analysis was made with the major producer/exporter countries. In the second stage, the profitability of wheat production and the distorting effects of policies on the sector were examined with the Policy Analysis Matrix method. Possible results of different scenarios for the market were also examined with Sensitivity Analysis within the framework of the PAM approach. At the last stage of the analysis, a case study was conducted to identify the problems faced by wheat value chain stakeholders. The Central Anatolia Region, which ranks first in wheat production in the country, was chosen for the case study. In addition to demographic questions, the wheat sector stakeholders were asked questions under three different categories:“Marketing and communication”,“Financing”and“Infrastructure and technology”and the results obtained were statistically analyzed. Outputs of the Revealed Comparative Advantage analysis showed that the RCA value of the Turkish wheat sector was above 1 when export data for wheat and wheat flour were taken into account together and it was below 1 when only export data of wheat was taken into account. Comparison of major wheat producer/exporter countries indicated that the Russian Federation by far had the highest RCA value. As a result of the Policy Analysis Matrix method applied to examine the wheat sector more closely, it was observed that the producers receive a certain amount of profit from wheat production activity, and state supports consitute a considerable share in it. The analysis also revealed that the input prices were higher than social prices, indicating a higher cost of production. With the sensitivity analysis, potential positive effects of the possible increase in yield were observed. Finally, the results of the survey conducted to identify the difficulties faced by industry stakeholders in the wheat value chain showed that, on average, industry stakeholders responded more positively to the questions in the“Infrastructure and technology”category, while the least positive answers were given to the questions in the“Financing”category. In this research, four hypotheses were tested using the appropriate methodology for each of them. The first hypothesis suggested that the policies aimed towards the Turkish wheat sector should prioritize the low-value segment in order to increase competitiveness. The RCA analysis results showed that the Turkish wheat sector has a certain level of comparative advantage when wheat and wheat flour are taken into account together. However, when only wheat is taken into account, the sector has no comparative advantage. Therefore, hypothesis one is accepted as the RCA analysis results support the statement. The formulation of the second hypothesis is based on the constraints experienced in the wheat value chain. The hypothesis suggests that financial-related problems in the Turkish wheat value chain are more likely to be severe when compared to infrastructure and marketing-related problems. The case study results showed that value chain stakeholders gave the least positive opinions to the questions asked in the“Financing”category. The“Marketing and communication”and“Infrastructure and technology”categories follow the“Financing”category, respectively. As a result, based on the quantitative survey results, hypothesis two is accepted. The third hypothesis of the research suggests that constraints faced by the Turkish wheat value chain stakeholders differ based on their location. Results of the statistical analysis indicate that, for the“Marketing and communication”question category, there was a significant difference between cities. Thus, for the“Marketing and communication”category, hypothesis three is accepted, and for the“Infrastructure and technology”and“Finances”categories, hypothesis three is rejected. Finally, the fourth hypothesis of the study suggests that constraints faced by the Turkish wheat value chain stakeholders differ based on their activity areas. Similarly, it was observed that there is a significant difference between activity areas for the“Marketing and communication”category. Therefore, for the“Marketing and communication”category, hypothesis four is accepted, and for the“Infrastructure and technology”and“Finances”categories, hypothesis four is rejected. Comprehensive value chain analysis revealed that in order for the wheat value chain to function more effectively in Turkey, policies should be aimed at reducing production costs and increasing yields, as well as expanding alternative financing methods, considering spatial differences and differences among stakeholders, and better integrating small-scale producers into the chain.
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