Hazne kapasitesi hesaplama yöntemleri ve Çoruh nehri havzasında bir uygulama
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 83040
- Danışmanlar: PROF. DR. ATIL BULU
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: İnşaat Mühendisliği, Civil Engineering
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1999
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: İnşaat Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 100
Özet
ÖZET Bu çalışmanın amacı biriktirme haznelerinin en önemli tasarım parametresi olan“Hazne Kapasitesi”nin hesap yöntemlerinin incelenmesi ve bir uygulamasıdır. Öncelikle hazne kapasitesi hesap yöntemlerinin teorileri verilmiş ve bunlar için ayrı ayrı bilgisayar programları yapılmıştır. Uygulama için ise Çoruh Nehri seçilmiştir. Nehir üzerinde seçilen 5 istasyondan alınan günlük ölçümlerden hesaplanan yıllık ortalamalar ile çalışılmıştır. Her istasyon için bu yıllık veriler ışığında Zaman Serisi Modellemesi yapılmış ve modeller kurularak bu modeller ile 4000'er adet seri üretilmiştir. Her bir seri için de farklı düzenleme oranlan için yukarıda bahsedilen programlar ile binlerce durum için hazne kapasitesi hesaplanmıştır. Söz konusu 5 istasyon için de sonuçlar grafik olarak verilmiştir. Örneğin 2305 numaralı istasyon civarında yapılacak, tam düzenleme ile işletilecek bir hazne için %10 risk ile yaklaşık 3,8 milyar m3 hacminde bir hazne yapılmalıdır. vııı
Özet (Çeviri)
SUMMARY Theory: In this study, methods to determine“The Storage Capacity”which is the most important parameter of designing water storage reservoirs are studied. A computer program has been developed for each method. To get more sensitive results from these methods a modeling method“Time Series Modeling”was used to generate input series to these programs. And also a computer program is developed to choose an appropriate ARMA model. Finally an application of these methods and their programs were realized in the Coruh River,Turkey. The storage capacity calculation methods given in this study are the well-known methods: 1. Mass Curve Method 2. Minimum Flow Method 3. Sequent Peak Method Since 1883, Mass Curve Method appears to have been the first rational method for estimating the size of storage required to meet a given draft. The procedure below explains how method works. (i) For the proposed dam site a mass or cumulative curve is constructed from the historical or generated streamfiows. (ii) The cumulative draft line for the reservoir, which is tangential to each hump of the mass inflow curve, is superimposed on the mass curve. (iii) The largest intercept between the mass inflow curve and cumulative draft line gives the storage capacity. IXThe Minimum Flow Method was proposed by Waitt (1945). From the historical or generated streamflow record, the lowest sub-sequences of flows of various durations are selected and plotted as flow volume vs. duration. The critical storage is given by maximum intercept between the draft line and the drought curve; the corresponding duration at this position is the critical period. The steps are: (i) From the historical sequence, the lowest flows for various durations, -these are usually taken at some convenient time interval, e.g. 12, 24, 36, 48, etc. consecutive months, are selected. Intermediate values could also be selected to allow for seasonal inflow variations, (ii) The graphic, which is mass inflows against corresponding durations, is plotted, (iii) The draft line such that it passes through the origin is superimposed, (iv) The largest intercept between the inflow curve and draft line gives the storage capacity. Thomas (Thomas and Burden, 1963) proposed the Sequent Peak Algorithm as a method to circumvent the need to locate the correct starting storage as is required in the behaviour analysis procedure. In essence, the storage size calculated using the sequent peak procedure is equal to the range of the net cumulative inflow (inflow less draft) estimated for the historical record concatenated with itself. The sequent peak procedure is described by Fiering (1967) as follows. Given an N year record of streamflow at the site of proposed dam and the desired draft, it is required to find a reservoir of minimum capacity such that the design draft can always be satisfied if the flows and drafts are repeated in a cyclic progression of cycles of N periods each. The solution requires only two cycles. The steps for this method are: (i) Calculate B(i) by using the formula below: xB(0) = O y(t)-x(t)+B(t-l) B(t)>0 B(t) = { 0 B(t) < 0 (ii) Maximum of the B(i) is the storage capacity. Reservoirs are build to supplement future river flows, but nobody can forecast what these will be. It is unlikely that history will repeat itself, yet many procedures use only the historical record. To overcome this dilemma, it is often useful to generate synthetic streamflow data with the same statistical features as the historical flows and use them to determine the sensitivity of estimated variables (e.g. storage size) to the flow sequencing. The method called“Time Series Modeling”. Synthetic series, which are generated by using time series modeling, will be the source of the storage capacity determination methods explained above. Thousands of synthetic series are generated, consequently thousands of storage capacities, to examine the critical values -especially maximums. The procedure below shows what ARMA model is appropriate for the site: (i) Check whether the original annual time series is normal. Apply the chi- square goodness of fit test and skewness test of normality, (ii) Transform the non-normal annual time series into normal by using y - ln(jc) or appropriate transformation, (iii) Calculate statistical parameters of the series and make the zt = yt - y transformation, (iv) Calculate r^ (z) auto correlation parameters, XI(v) Calculate fy autoregressive parameters and ae2 white noise variance parameters for chosen probable models (vi) Determine 8t residuals (vii) Test the hypothesis that residuals are independent series by using“Anderson Test”and“Porte-Manteau Lack of Fit Test”(viii) Determine the Akaike Information Criterions of possible models. Minimum of the AIC(p,q) gives the model (ix) Generation of series Application: The theory above has been applied in the Coruh River. The river is in the northeast of Turkey. There are forty one stations of the river. Five of these stations are chosen to propose a storage reservoir near each station. The primary criteria on choosing these stations is the data record length. According to this criteria the stations, which have maximum data record length, have been chosen. Only the Sequent Peak Algorithm has been used in this application. And the results depends on the draft percentage. Projects have been designed for 50 years. Consequently the generated series are 50 years long. Results: The example result table for station number 2305 is shown on the table below. xuXlllXIV
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