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Rüzgar enerjisi üretim dengesizliklerinin yol açtığı enerji piyasasındaki tahmin zorluğunun depolama sistemi ile ekonomik karşılaştırılması ve değerlendirilmesi

Economic comparison and evaluation of the forecasting challenge in the energy market caused by wind power generation imbalances with storage systems

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  1. Tez No: 1002666
  2. Yazar: SİMGE ACAR
  3. Danışmanlar: DOÇ. DR. BURAK BARUTÇU
  4. Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
  5. Konular: Enerji, Energy
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 2026
  8. Dil: Türkçe
  9. Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
  10. Enstitü: Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Enerji Bilimi ve Teknolojileri Ana Bilim Dalı
  12. Bilim Dalı: Enerji Bilim ve Teknoloji Bilim Dalı
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.

Özet

Yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarının (YEK) elektrik üretim portföyündeki payının hızla artması, enerji sektöründe karbon emisyonlarının azaltılması açısından önemli kazanımlar sağlamakla birlikte, şebeke işletimi ve piyasa dengesi açısından yeni zorlukları da beraberinde getirmektedir. Özellikle Rüzgâr Enerji Santrallerinin (RES) meteorolojik koşullara bağlı değişken üretim karakteristiği, elektrik piyasalarında tahmin hatalarının artmasına ve buna bağlı olarak dengesizlik maliyetlerinin oluşmasına neden olmaktadır. Rüzgâr enerjisi, konvansiyonel üretim tesislerinden farklı olarak tam anlamıyla planlanabilir bir üretim yapısına sahip olmadığından, gün öncesi ve gün içi piyasalarında yapılan üretim tahminleri ile gerçek üretim değerleri arasında sapmalar meydana gelmektedir. Bu sapmalar, üreticilerin Dengeleme ve Uzlaştırma Yönetmeliği kapsamında ek mali yüklerle karşılaşmasına yol açmakta ve yenilenebilir enerji yatırımlarının ekonomik performansını doğrudan etkilemektedir. Rüzgâr gücü tahmin yöntemlerinin geliştirilmesine yönelik akademik ve endüstriyel çalışmalar sürdürülmekle birlikte, doğası gereği belirsizlik içeren üretim yapısının tamamen ortadan kaldırılması mümkün değildir. Bu nedenle, yalnızca tahmin doğruluğunu artırmaya odaklanan yaklaşımların ötesinde, sistem esnekliğini artıran teknik çözümlere ihtiyaç duyulmaktadır. Enerji Depolama Sistemleri (EDS), fazla enerjinin depolanarak ihtiyaç duyulan zaman dilimlerinde sisteme geri verilmesini mümkün kılması sayesinde, hem şebeke kararlılığının artırılması hem de piyasa kaynaklı dengesizlik maliyetlerinin azaltılması açısından önemli bir çözüm alternatifi olarak öne çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışma kapsamında, rüzgâr üretiminin talep değerlerinin üzerinde gerçekleştiği saatlerde oluşan fazla enerjinin depolanması ve üretimin talebin altında kaldığı zaman dilimlerinde depolanan enerjinin kullanılması yoluyla dengesizlik fiyatlarına maruz kalmanın azaltılması hedeflenmiştir. Önerilen model, 60 MWh kapasiteli enerji depolama sistemi için farklı batarya teknolojilerinin teknik performansları, şarj–deşarj verimleri, çevrim ömürleri, işletme avantajları ve dezavantajları dikkate alınarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada Lityum-İyon (Li-ion), Kurşun-Asit (Lead-Acid), Akışkan Tip (Flow) ve Nikel-Kadmiyum (NiCd) batarya teknolojileri; 20 yıllık proje ömrü ve %10 iskonto oranı varsayımları altında Net Bugünkü Değer (NPW) yöntemi kullanılarak karşılaştırmalı ekonomik değerlendirmeye tabi tutulmuştur. Analiz sonuçları, enerji depolama sistemlerinin dengesizlik maliyetlerini azaltma potansiyelini ortaya koyarken, özellikle batarya yatırım maliyetlerinin 200 USD/kWh seviyesinin altına düşmesi durumunda ekonomik uygulanabilirliğin belirgin biçimde arttığını göstermektedir. Elde edilen bulgular doğrultusunda, enerji depolama destekli RES işletiminin hem piyasa performansını iyileştiren hem de geleceğin esnek ve sürdürülebilir enerji sistemlerine katkı sağlayan bütüncül bir çözüm yaklaşımı sunduğu ortaya konmuştur.

Özet (Çeviri)

The global transition toward sustainable and low-carbon energy systems has positioned renewable energy sources (RES) as the primary pillars of future electricity grids. Wind energy, in particular, has experienced exponential growth and currently accounts for more than 10% of global electricity generation and approximately 11.34% of Turkey's total energy mix. However, the increasing penetration of RES into electricity systems introduces significant operational and market-related challenges. Unlike conventional thermal or hydroelectric power plants, Wind Power Plants (WPPs) do not possess dispatchable or fully programmable generation characteristics. The inherently stochastic and unpredictable nature of wind speed leads to production variability that cannot be forecast with absolute accuracy, creating operational uncertainties within electricity markets. In modern electricity market structures, producers are required to submit generation forecasts to both the Day-Ahead Market and the Intra-Day Market. Deviations between scheduled commitments and actual realized production expose producers to financial penalties under the Balancing and Settlement Regulation. These imbalance costs represent a substantial economic risk factor, directly reducing the profitability and financial predictability of wind energy investments and highlighting the need for innovative technical and economic solution approaches capable of mitigating market exposure. The primary responsibility of the transmission system operator, namely TEİAŞ in the Turkish electricity market, is to continuously maintain the balance between electricity supply and demand in order to preserve system frequency stability at 50 Hz. When a WPP generates less energy than forecasted (under-generation), the system experiences an energy deficit, requiring the operator to activate Load Taking (YAL) instructions from flexible and typically higher-cost generation units. This operational response generally increases the System Marginal Price (SMP) above the Market Clearing Price (MCP). Conversely, when generation exceeds forecast values (over-generation), Load Throwing (YAT) instructions are issued, frequently causing SMP values to fall below MCP. These market dynamics amplify financial uncertainty for renewable energy producers operating under variable generation conditions. Although continuous advancements in wind power forecasting methodologies, including advanced statistical and algorithm-based approaches, have improved prediction accuracy, the complete elimination of production uncertainty remains physically impossible due to the intrinsic variability of meteorological conditions. Consequently, Energy Storage Systems (ESS) have emerged as a promising technological alternative, offering operational flexibility capable of buffering production deviations and reducing exposure to imbalance-related market costs. The main objective of this study is to evaluate an operational model in which surplus energy generated during periods when wind production exceeds forecast values is stored and subsequently discharged during periods of production deficit. Through this approach, the producer is able to fulfill market commitments independently of instantaneous wind fluctuations, thereby minimizing exposure to volatile imbalance prices and improving overall market performance. The proposed model investigates the integration of a 60 MWh Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) into two representative wind power plant profiles in Turkey: the 30 MW Karlıtepe WPP located in Hatay and the 149 MW Gülpınar WPP located in Çanakkale. The study adopts a holistic evaluation framework that considers technical performance, charge–discharge behavior, operational flexibility, and long-term economic feasibility across different storage technology alternatives. Selecting an appropriate storage technology constitutes a critical factor for successful WPP integration. Accordingly, this study analyzes four electrochemical battery technologies: Lithium-Ion (Li-ion), Lead-Acid (LA), Nickel-Cadmium (NiCd), and Flow battery systems. In addition, mechanical storage technologies such as Pumped Hydro Energy Storage (PHES) and Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) are conceptually evaluated; however, despite offering large-scale storage capability, these systems are constrained by slow response times and strict geographical requirements, making them unsuitable for localized wind power plant applications. Lithium-Ion (Li-ion) batteries are characterized by high round-trip efficiency ranging between 90–95%, high energy density of approximately 170 Wh/kg, and millisecond-level response times, making them currently the dominant technology for frequency regulation and imbalance mitigation services. Lead-Acid batteries represent a mature and relatively low-cost solution; however, they suffer from low energy density (approximately 35 Wh/kg) and limited cycle life typically ranging between 500 and 1500 cycles. Nickel-Cadmium batteries provide robust operational performance under harsh conditions but are constrained by lower efficiency levels (60–70%) and environmental concerns when compared to lithium-ion technologies. Flow batteries, on the other hand, offer exceptionally long operational lifetimes exceeding 10,000 cycles and deep discharge capability, although their adoption remains limited due to lower energy density and comparatively high initial investment costs. The economic evaluation of the storage systems is conducted using the Net Present Worth (NPW) methodology to assess long-term investment feasibility. The analysis assumes a project lifetime of 20 years and a discount rate of 10%. The total NPW cost structure includes Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) representing initial installation costs, replacement costs determined according to the cycle life of each battery technology (for example, three replacements for Lead-Acid systems versus a single replacement for Li-ion systems over the project lifetime), annual Operation and Maintenance (O&M) expenses, and energy loss costs calculated based on round-trip efficiency and self-discharge characteristics. Technical system performance was simulated using MATLAB, where real operational data obtained from the EPİAŞ Transparency Platform were employed to model the dynamic interaction between the battery storage system and the electricity grid. Simulation results confirm that BESS integration substantially reduces the imbalance volume associated with wind power plant operation. For the 30 MW Karlıtepe WPP, the integrated storage system achieved an annual saving of approximately 1.058 million USD in imbalance penalties. Similarly, for the 149 MW Gülpınar WPP, annual savings were calculated at approximately 2.272 million USD. Despite the significant operational benefits, economic feasibility remains highly sensitive to battery capital investment costs. Under current market price conditions, the NPW analysis for the 30 MW wind power plant yielded a negative value of approximately −18 million USD, indicating that the investment is not yet economically viable under standard assumptions. The payback period for the lithium-ion battery system was calculated as 16.89 years. To evaluate future investment viability, a sensitivity analysis focusing on lithium-ion battery CAPEX was conducted. The results reveal a clear economic transition pathway as battery technologies mature and costs decline. At a battery investment cost level of 200 USD/kWh, the NPW benefit (19.314 million USD) begins to exceed the NPW cost (18.677 million USD), resulting in a positive Net Present Value (NPV) of approximately +0.637 million USD. When battery costs decrease to 150 USD/kWh, the system becomes highly profitable, with an NPW cost of 14.009 million USD and a positive NPV of approximately +5.305 million USD. These findings indicate that ongoing reductions in battery technology costs, combined with increasing electricity market volatility, will transform ESS integration from a purely technical necessity into a financially attractive strategy for wind power producers. The study therefore provides a comprehensive assessment of energy storage integration in wind power plants, effectively bridging the gap between technical grid stability requirements and market-based economic performance. While lithium-ion batteries currently represent the most effective technological solution due to their high efficiency and rapid response capability, their economic feasibility remains strongly dependent on initial investment costs. The proposed model demonstrates that moderate reductions in CAPEX levels or increases in market imbalance prices will enable battery-integrated wind power plants to achieve economic sustainability. Future research directions should focus on multi-market participation strategies, including the simultaneous provision of imbalance mitigation and primary frequency control services, in order to further diversify revenue streams and accelerate large-scale deployment of energy storage systems.

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