DEPREM KONUTLARININ YER SEÇİMİNDE COĞRAFİ BİLGİ SİSTEMLERİ VE BULANIK AHP TABANLI BİR MODEL ÖNERİSİ: SAKARYA ÖRNEĞİ
A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS AND FUZZY AHP–BASED MODEL PROPOSAL FOR SITE SELECTION OF EARTHQUAKE HOUSING: THE CASE OF SAKARYA
- Tez No: 1025301
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ. DR. CEM KIRLANGIÇOĞLU
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Coğrafya, İnşaat Mühendisliği, Şehircilik ve Bölge Planlama, Geography, Civil Engineering, Urban and Regional Planning
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2026
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Sakarya Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Yangın ve Yangın Güvenliği Ana Bilim Dalı (disiplinlerarası)
- Bilim Dalı: Afet Yönetimi Bilim Dalı
- Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.
Özet
Depremler, küresel ölçekte en yıkıcı doğa kaynaklı afetler arasında yer alırken; Türkiye, sahip olduğu aktif tektonik kuşaklar nedeniyle bu sismik riskle sürekli ve doğrudan karşı karşıya kalmaktadır. 17 Ağustos 1999 Gölcük ve 6 Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş merkezli depremler, yarattıkları ağır can ve mal kayıplarının ötesinde, afet sonrası kalıcı konut üretim ve yer seçim süreçlerine ilişkin tartışmaları yeniden gündeme getirmiştir. İlgili literatür incelendiğinde, Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS) tabanlı mekânsal analizlerin genellikle tehlike haritalaması, hasar tespiti ve geçici barınma alanlarının belirlenmesi odaklı olduğu görülmektedir. Buna karşın; fiziksel, jeolojik, sosyoekonomik ve altyapısal parametreleri bütüncül bir yaklaşımla değerlendiren entegre modellemelerin literatürde sınırlı düzeyde kaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Bu bağlamda araştırma, söz konusu teorik ve pratik boşluğu doldurmak amacıyla Sakarya ili örnekleminde Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri ve Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci yöntemlerini entegre eden melez birçok ölçütlü yer seçimi modeli geliştirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırmanın metodolojik çerçevesi doğrultusunda, kapsamlı literatür taraması ve alanında uzman kişilerle yürütülen sözlü mülakatların sentezlenmesi sonucunda sekiz temel parametre (eğim, litolojik yapı, diri fay hatlarına uzaklık, erişilebilirlik, ulaşım ağlarına yakınlık, su kaynaklarına yakınlık, arazi kullanımı ve toprak sınıfı) belirlenmiştir. AHP yöntemiyle ağırlıklandırılan bu ölçütler, CBS ortamında Bulanık Üyelik (Fuzzy Membership) fonksiyonları kullanılarak 0-1 aralığında standardize edilmiş ve Ağırlıklı Toplam (Weighted Sum) tekniği ile Sakarya iline ait nihai mekânsal uygunluk haritası elde edilmiştir. Analiz bulguları, optimum yerleşim uygunluğuna sahip alanların spesifik olarak Kaynarca, Karasu, Kocaali, Geyve ve Taraklı ilçelerinde kümelendiğini göstermektedir. Söz konusu lokasyonlar; diri fay zonlarına asgari bir kilometre mesafede bulunmaları, sert/metamorfik litolojik formasyonlar içermeleri, %0-20 topoğrafik eğim aralığında yer almaları, tarım dışı arazi karakteristiğine sahip olmaları ve V-VIII sınıfı marjinal toprak yapısı barındırmaları bağlamında ortak bir mekânsal profil sunmaktadır. Çalışma sonucunda, analiz alanının %48,5'ine tekabül eden toplam 204.075 hektarlık alanın deprem konutları inşası için elverişli olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Buna ek olarak, topoğrafik eğim ile kentsel erişilebilirlik parametreleri arasındaki ters orantılı mekânsal korelasyon, yalnızca jeolojik güvenlik odaklı tek boyutlu yaklaşımların kentsel sürdürülebilirlik açısından yaratabileceği handikapları analitik olarak göz önüne sermiştir. Geliştirilen CBS-AHP modelinin dinamik, ölçeklenebilir ve sismik risk taşıyan diğer kentlere uyarlanabilir mimarisi, kamu otoriteleri ve şehir plancıları için proaktif bir karar destek mekanizması niteliği taşımaktadır. Nihai olarak bu araştırma, Türkiye'nin geçmiş afet deneyimlerinden elde ettiği dersleri, kurumsal ve çok disiplinli bir mekânsal planlama çerçevesine dönüştürerek afet yönetimi literatürüne özgün bir katkı sağlamaktadır.
Özet (Çeviri)
Earthquakes are among the most destructive natural disasters worldwide, and Türkiye is constantly and directly exposed to this seismic risk due to its location within a tectonically active region of the world. The earthquakes that occurred in Gölcük on August 17, 1999, and in Kahramanmaraş on February 6, 2023, have led to a resurgence of interest in the discussion of post-disaster permanent housing production and site selection processes. This interest has arisen in the context of the significant loss of life and property that these earthquakes caused. A review of the relevant literature reveals that Geographic Information System (GIS)-based spatial analyses typically focus on hazard mapping, damage assessment, and the identification of temporary shelter areas. Conversely, integrated modeling approaches that comprehensively evaluate physical, geological, socio-economic, and infrastructural parameters remain limited in the extant literature. In this context, the objective of the present study is to develop a hybrid multicriteria site selection model that integrates GIS and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods, using Sakarya Province as a case study, to address this theoretical and practical gap. In accordance with the research's methodological framework, eight key parameters (slope, lithological structure, distance to active fault lines, accessibility, proximity to transportation networks, distance to water sources, land use, and soil class) were identified through a synthesis of a comprehensive literature review and interviews with experts in the field. These criteria were weighted using the AHP method and standardized within the 0–1 range using Fuzzy Membership functions in a GIS environment. The final spatial suitability map for Sakarya Province was obtained using the Weighted Sum technique. The analysis findings indicate that areas with optimal settlement suitability are specifically clustered in the districts of Kaynarca, Karasu, Kocaali, Geyve, and Taraklı. These locations share a common spatial profile, characterized by the following: a distance of at least one kilometer from active fault zones; the presence of hard/metamorphic lithological formations; a topographic slope range of 0–20%; non-agricultural land characteristics; and marginal soil structures of V–VIII class. The study concluded that a total area of 204,075 hectares, corresponding to 48.5% of the analysis area, is suitable for the construction of earthquake-resistant housing. Furthermore, the inverse spatial correlation between topographic slope and urban accessibility parameters analytically highlights the limitations that onedimensional approaches focused solely on geological safety may pose in terms of urban sustainability. The developed GIS-AHP model's architecture is characterized by its dynamism, scalability, and adaptability. These qualities render the model applicable to other cities with seismic risks, thereby serving as a proactive decision-support mechanism for public authorities and urban planners. This research makes a unique contribution to the disaster management literature by transforming lessons learned from past disaster experiences of Türkiye into an institutional and multidisciplinary spatial planning framework. The international literature on post-disaster housing relocation provides essential comparative insights that have directly informed the criterion design of this study. The 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan revealed that over-reliance on market-driven reconstruction displaced elderly and low-income communities from their established social networks, generating prolonged isolation in peripheral settlements. This experience demonstrated that site selection cannot be reduced to engineering safety alone; age structure, income levels, and community ties must be treated as binding planning variables. The 2010 Haiti earthquake offered a contrasting but equally instructive lesson: internationally coordinated permanent housing, though technically adequate, was frequently located in areas disconnected from infrastructure and livelihoods, leading to widespread abandonment. The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China produced a landmark counterexample. The reconstruction of Shuimo Town integrated seismic safety standards with ecological identity and economic revitalization, earning the United Nations' Best Global Practice Award for PostDisaster Reconstruction in 2011. The 2010 Maule earthquake in Chile gave rise to the Constitución recovery plan, completed within 100 days, which combined natural risk reduction through coastal reforestation with participatory planning principles. Within Turkey's own earthquake history, the 1939 Erzincan and 1970 Gediz earthquakes illustrate the tension between rapid relocation and long-term urban growth management. In Erzincan, the city was relocated approximately 1.5 kilometers northward following the 1939 earthquake, yet unmanaged urban expansion subsequently pushed development back toward fault-proximate zones, contributing to renewed destruction in the 1992 event. These international and national experiences collectively established the theoretical foundation for this study's insistence on integrating socioeconomic and infrastructural criteria alongside physical-geological parameters. The methodological framework of this study rests on a three-stage spatial modeling pipeline. In the first stage, eight evaluation criteria were identified through a synthesis of a systematic literature review and semi-structured interviews with seventeen experts drawn from public institutions and the private sector with direct experience in earthquake housing site selection. The criteria encompass three dimensions: physical geological (slope, lithological structure, distance to active fault lines), socioeconomic (accessibility to urban services, proximity to transportation networks), and technicalinfrastructural (distance to water sources, land use, soil class). In the second stage, the relative importance of each criterion was determined using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). A pairwise comparison matrix was constructed from expert evaluations and aggregated via the geometric mean method. The resulting Consistency Ratio (CR) of 0.012 falls well below the 0.10 acceptance threshold, confirming the internal coherence of expert judgments. Slope emerged as the highest-weighted criterion at 24.8%, followed by lithological structure at 22.1% and distance to active faults at 16.2%. These three physical criteria collectively account for 63% of the total weight. Accessibility and proximity to transportation networks together contribute 21.7%, reflecting the study's deliberate incorporation of socioeconomic sustainability lessons drawn from the Kobe and Haiti experiences. In the third stage, each criterion layer was transformed from raw spatial data into a normalized suitability surface in the 0–1 range using Fuzzy Membership functions within ArcGIS, with a spatial resolution of 25×25 meters under the TUREF/TM30 coordinate reference system. Areas classified as absolutely unsuitable for housing — water bodies, existing dense settlements, and legally protected zones — were excluded from the analysis domain via the Extract by Mask operation. The final suitability map was produced by applying the Weighted Sum method across all eight fuzzy membership layers. The spatial suitability analysis revealed a nuanced pattern of opportunity and constraint across Sakarya Province. The final classification assigns 18.2% of the analysis area to the highest suitability class and 26.4% to the suitable class, yielding a combined 48.5% — approximately 204,075 hectares — deemed appropriate for earthquake housing construction. The districts of Kaynarca, Karasu, and Kocaali, located in the northeastern and eastern parts of the province, received the highest composite suitability scores. Their convergent advantages include significant distances from the North Anatolian Fault Zone branches, dominance of hard metamorphic and igneous lithological units (granite, gneiss, andesite), low-to-moderate slope gradients, and V–VIII class soils with limited agricultural value. Geyve and Taraklı in the southern part of the province similarly achieved high suitability rankings. By contrast, the central alluvial plain encompassing Adapazarı, Erenler, and Serdivan districts — the most densely urbanized and infrastructurally connected area of the province — received low suitability ratings due to the combination of active fault proximity, alluvial soil susceptibility to liquefaction, and high groundwater levels. This spatial tension between geological safety and socioeconomic accessibility is analytically significant: the districts most favorably positioned on physical-geological criteria are precisely those least connected to the existing urban service network, while the most accessible districts carry the highest seismic risk. This inverse correlation quantitatively justifies the multi-criteria modeling approach and demonstrates why single-criterion or purely geology-based site selection frameworks are insufficient for producing socially sustainable outcomes. The model's validation against the three permanent housing settlements established after the 1999 earthquake — Camili, Karaman, and Korucuk — provides an independent analytical confirmation: all three areas fall within the high or moderately high suitability classes in the model output, affirming that the 1999 decisions, made intuitively under crisis conditions, align with the scientific framework developed in this study. The findings of this study carry direct implications for post-earthquake spatial planning policy in Turkey and beyond. First, the integration of the GIS-AHP model into AFAD's AYDES (Integrated Disaster Management Decision Support System) platform is proposed as an institutional priority. Such integration would enable site selection decisions to be completed within hours rather than days following a seismic event, substantially improving the speed and quality of emergency housing response. Second, the study recommends that minimum fault buffer distances and land capability class thresholds be codified as binding standards in national planning legislation — a recommendation made urgent by the controversies surrounding agricultural land conversion and fault proximity violations observed in the 2023 Kahramanmaraş reconstruction process. Third, the model's scalable architecture supports adaptation for the provinces of Kahramanmaraş, Hatay, Malatya, and Adıyaman, all severely affected by the 2023 earthquakes, where the planning parameters could be recalibrated to local geological and infrastructural conditions. The study also acknowledges its principal limitations: the absence of microzoning-level soil liquefaction data, the dependence of AHP weightings on the composition of the expert panel, and the exclusion of structural engineering, cost analysis, and demographic demand projections from the model scope. Future research directions include the comparative evaluation of machine learning-based weighting methods against the AHP framework, the enrichment of the model with additional socioeconomic layers such as household income distribution and age-dependent vulnerability indices, and the sensitivity analysis of criterion thresholds across alternative earthquake scenarios. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that post-earthquake housing site selection can be systematically transformed from intuitive, crisis-driven decisions into a transparent, repeatable, and institutionally actionable spatial planning process. The 24-year interval between the 1999 Marmara and 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, during which the same site selection errors recurred, underscores that the urgency of this transformation is not academic but existential. The CBS-AHP integration framework presented here offers a concrete step toward ensuring that the institutional memory of Turkey's earthquake experience informs, rather than merely records, the decisions that will determine where the next generation of earthquake survivors will rebuild their lives.
Benzer Tezler
- A data-driven approach to identifying and selecting temporary disaster debris management sites: The case of Istanbul
Geçici afet moloz yönetim alanlarının belirlenmesi ve seçimi için veri odaklı bir yaklaşım: İstanbul örneği
BURAK KABAKLI
Yüksek Lisans
İngilizce
2025
Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliğiİstanbul Teknik ÜniversitesiEndüstri Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
DOÇ. DR. ŞEYDA SERDAR ASAN
- Elazığ ilinde güneş enerjisi santral yerlerinin CBS ve AHP yöntemleri ile belirlenmesi
Determination of solar power plant locations in Elazığ by GIS and AHP methods
SEBAHATTİN BEYCUR
Yüksek Lisans
Türkçe
2022
EnerjiFırat ÜniversitesiEkobilişim Ana Bilim Dalı
DR. ÖĞR. ÜYESİ ÖMER OSMAN DURSUN
- Türkiye'de farklı bölgelerde uygulanan deprem sonrası geçici konut sistemlerini değerlendirme yaklaşımı
Approach to evaluation of temporary housing systems after earthquake in different regions in Turkey
BETÜL KAVAKLI
Yüksek Lisans
Türkçe
2022
MimarlıkMimar Sinan Güzel Sanatlar ÜniversitesiMimarlık Ana Bilim Dalı
DR. ÖĞR. ÜYESİ SAVAŞ EKİNCİ
- İstanbul konut mimarlığında ahşap-kâgir yapım sistemlerinin seçiminde belirleyici etkenler (1800-1930)
The factors determining the selection of wood-masonry construction systems in İstanbul houses (1800-1930)
YEŞİM ERDAL
- Samsun ilinde elektrikli araç şarj istasyonu konumlarının ahp yöntemi ile analiz edilmesi
Analysis of electric vehicle charging station locations in the province of Samsun using the ahp method
MUSTAFA YASİN ÖZDEMİR
Yüksek Lisans
Türkçe
2026
İnşaat MühendisliğiBursa Teknik Üniversitesiİnşaat Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
DR. ÖĞR. ÜYESİ NURTEN AKGÜN