Dış borçlanmada kredi değerliliği ve Türkiye uygulaması
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 43954
- Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. KAMİL TÜĞEN
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1996
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 203
Özet
ÖZET Dış borçlanmada“Kredi Değerliliği”diğer pek çok gelişmekte olan ilkenin olculu gibi Türkiye'nin de önemli 'bir meselesidir. Son yıllarda, dış borçlanmada sendikasyon kredilerinin yerini tahvil ihracına bırakmasıyla ülkelerin kredi değerlerine duyulan ihtiyaç artmış; yine aynı dönemde kredi itibarını belirleyen geleneksel borç göstergelerinin yanı sıra ekonomik risk, sjyâsî risk, hükümranlık riski ve hepsinin genel bir ifâdesi olan ilke riski analizleri de önem kazanmıştır. Pinans piyasalarının bu derece kompleks hâle gelmesi ve borçlanma çeşitlerinin gelişmiş olması, risk analizlerini yapan“rating kuruluşları”na duyulan ihtiyacı da arttırmıştır. Rating endüstrisinin bu ani gelişimi, bu sahaca faaliyet gösteren kuruluşların yaptıkları deleri encirmeler üzerinde yoları tartışmalara sebeb olmuş ve rating kuruluşları aşır ithamlar altında kalmışlardır " Getirilen eleştirilerin başında rating kuruluşlarının metodolojilerine ilişkin analitik bir formolün, bulunmayışı ve yapılan değerlendirmelerin ne derece doğruluk arz ettiği yer almaktadır. Bu çalışmadan maksat, Türkiye'nin kredi değerliliğini dış borçlanmanın ilk başladığı târih olan 1854 sene sinden itibaren irdeleyip, özellikle 1990 senesinden sonraki dönemde rating kuruluşlarıyla olan ilişkiler ışınında incelemek, ayrıca rating kuruluşlarına yöneltilmen tenkitleri il mî bir çerçeveye oturtmaktır ve görülen şudur ki; yapılan menfî eleştirilerde yeterince haklılık payı mevcuttur.
Özet (Çeviri)
ABSTRACT This study which is the name of“The importance of the credit worthiness to the external debt and the case of Turkey”attepmts to survey the rating agencies and the evolution of Turkey's credibility. External debt has been a problem to Turkey every time. Because Turkey's credibility has always been medium. On the other hand, it is seen that the methodology of measuring credit worthiness is progress. The analytical model for dealing with the external debt crisis in the first phase of debt management, en the years from 1982 to 1985, was based on notion that a debtor can simultaneously increase its external debt and credit - worthiness, this means that the denominators are expected to grow faster than debt, the numerator. It is well known that it may be problematic to equate changes in the debt to export ratio to changes in credit-worthiness. For example, the debt to export ratio may simply improve because the country can not get any new loans, i.e. because the country is not credit - worthy. After the debt crisis experience, most of the analysts directed to the risk analysis which is shown the debtors worth. These are economic risk, political risk sovereign risk and generalised country risk analysis. Country risk refers to elements of risk inherent in doing business in the economic, social and political environment of another country. The term country risk is often used interchangeably with the terms political risk and sovereign risk. However, country risk is really a broaderconcept than either of the other two, including them as special cases. Country risk involves the possibility of losses due to country-specific economic, political and social events, and therefore ali political risk is country risk, but not ali country risk is political risk. Bank are beginning to make political risk analysis a more regular and integrated aspect of country risk procedures. in the 1970's, political analysis usually was on appendage to economic evaluations. Now, however, banks are developing methodologies for giving political risk analysis a more central role in lending decisions. Political risk analysis goes beyond economic forcasting to gauge other forces from relligious movements to nationalistic trends and politics. Sovereign risk that a foreign government will default on its loan ör fail to honor business commitments because of a change in national policy. Sovereign risk involves the possibility of losses on claims to foreign governments ör government agencies. Sovereign risk includes: *Ali bank loans and other financial transactions made with sovereign governments along with ali other loans made to private resident bearing the guarantee of the hoşt government. *The full gamut of policy decisions a sovereign government has at its disposal to affect loan servicing by private debtors. Not only are govermental actions included here which, in effect, lighteen its own loan servicing burden but also ali measures which impede the repayment of loans made to private borrowers domiciled in that country, by such actions as imposing exchange controls.As fınancial market complexity and borrower diversity have grown över time, investors and regulators have increased their reliance on the opinions of the credit rating agencies. At the same time, the number of rating agencies operating in the United States and abroad has risen sharply. Moreover, as the number of agencies increases, differences in ratings may encourge borrowers to“shop”for the most favorable ratings. in light of the possibilities for rating misuse, the current reevoluation of ratings- dependentregulations and the adequacy of public oversight seems well justfied. On the other side, sovereign ratings are gaining importance as more governments with greater default risk borrow in international bond markets. But while the ratings have proved useful to governments seeking market access, the diffıculty of assesing sovereign risk has led to agency disagreements and public controversy över specific rating assignments. The reliation between Turkey and rating agencies started after 1990. Turkey's fırst rating was“BBB”; its means that Turkey is a country who owners“investmen grade note”. But, financial crisis in 1994 due to residual imbalances in Turkey. Stili, growing fınancial and external imbalances in 1993 precipitated a majör economic crisis in early 1194, when the government found itself unable to fınance the public sector at the rates and maturities it desired. Government restored to the large scale central bank credits to finance the budget, which boosted liquidity in the financial system. Then, the rating agencies responded to the growing pressures by downgrading the country. Now, in 1996 Turkey's rating grade is“BB”; its means Turkey is a speculative country.
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