Ulaştırma yapılarına uygun su geçişlerinin önerilmesinde uzman sistem yaklaşımı
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 46306
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ.DR. FÜSUN ÜLENGİN
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği, Industrial and Industrial Engineering
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1995
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 79
Özet
ÖZET Bu çalışmada; göl, körfez, boğaz, haliç, nehir, iki ada ya da ada-anakara arası deniz şeklinde su geçişi gerektiren herhangi bir coğrafi bölgede, bölgenin kentiçi veya kentdışı olmasına bağlı olarak ve çok ölçütlü bir kriter sistemi ele alınarak en uygun geçiş türü seçeneğinin bulunması hedeflenmektedir. Bu ulaştırma sorunun çözümü için yapay zekanın alanlarından biri olan ve uygulandığı alanda insanın uzmanlığını temsil eden bir bilgi tabanını yorumlayarak çözümler öneren (çıkarım yapan) Uzman Sistem (US) yöntemi kullanılmaktadır. US modüllerinin oluşturulması sırasında kural temelli yöntemsel bilgi sunumundan yararlanan EXSYS yazılım paketi kullanılmıştır. Modüllerle ilgili veriler İTÜ İnşaat Fakültesi Ulaştırma Bölümünden sağlanmış ve seçeneklerin ne olacağı, hangi ölçütlerin kullanılacağı gibi modelin kuruluşu için gerekli seçimler aynı bölüm öğretim üyelerinden Prof. Dr. Ergun Gedizlioğlu' nun uzmanlığından faydalanarak yapılmıştır. US'nin uygulanacağı coğrafi bölgeye göre dikkate alınan seçenekler; Lastikli ve Raylı Taşıtlar için Köprü, Tünel, (Ray Döşeli) Araba Vapuru ve Çevresini Dolaşma ile Yolcu Vapuru, Deniz Otobüsü ve Dolmuş Motoru' dur. Bu seçeneklerin değerlendirilmesinde kullanılan ve göreli önemleri Analitik Hiyerarşi yöntemi ile bulunan kriterler ise Geçiş Bölgesinin Durumu, Ekonomik Durum, Çevresel Uygunluk ve Toplumsal Etki'dir. Beş ana modülden oluşan US, İstanbul Boğazı ve İzmit Körfezi geçişlerinde uygulanmıştır. Sonuç olarak Boğaz için en uygun geçiş türü Raylı Taşıtlar için Tünel (%75.91) olmakta ve bu seçeneği Deniz Otobüsü (%75.36) ve Yolcu Vapuru (%74. 26) seçenekleri takip etmektedir- Körfez için ise Lastikli Taşıtlar için Araba Vapuru (%70.64) ve Raylı Taşıtlar için Ray Döşeli Araba Vapuru (%69.7) seçenekleri en uygun geçiş türleri olmaktadır. Daha sonra bu sonuçlar üzerinde kriterlere göre duyarlılık analizi yapılmıştır. vııı
Özet (Çeviri)
SUMMARY Expert System Approach at Proposing Appropriate Water Crossings for Transportation Infrastructure Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a simply way of making computer think intelligently. This is accomplished by studying how people think when they are trying to make decisions and solve problems, breaking those thought processes down into basic steps, and designing a computer program that solves problems using those same steps. AI thereby provides a simple, structured approach to designing complex decision-making programs. The founding of AI as we know it today is often traced to a small summer meeting of researchers at Dartmouth College in New Hampshire, USA in 1956. In the decades following the Dartmouth Conference AI researchers have developed computational models and computer programs that attempt to solve tasks in a way that would be considered intelligent if performed by a human. A conceptual breakthrough in AI research occurred with the recognition that extensive, high quality knowledge gives a computer program its problem- solving power in ill-structured or nonalgorithmic, narrow, problem domains. The subsequent development of knowledge- based expert systems founded on this concept has constituted one of the major successes of AI. Except knowledge-based expert systems, the other major areas of AI can be listed as follows: - Game Playing - Automated Reasoning and Problem Solving - Computational Linguistics - Natural Language Processing - Computer Vision - Robotics Human beings seem to have an inbuilt tendency to surround themselves with ever more complex environments. We can not hope to cope with these complex political, social and economical systems without the computer. If you look at the subject of Expert Systems (ES) as a means of coping with complexity it becomes more than just an interesting phenomenon with potential financial benefits: ES becomes essential. IXThe developed expert system is composed of five basic modules; each developed for different crossing possibilities that can be listed as: - ESI, evaluating four alternatives concerning wheeled vehicles - ES2, evaluating three alternatives concerning wheeled vehicles - ES3, evaluating four alternatives concerning railway vehicles - ES4, evaluating three alternatives concerning railway vehicles - ES5, evaluating three vessel alternatives In each module 4 sub-modules evaluate the alternatives according to; - Crossing area characteristics, - Economical aspect, - Environmental suitability, and - Social impact. First of all relative priorities of these four criteria are calculated by Analytical Hierarchy Process and then by executing necessary sub-modules average probability values of alternatives according to each criterion are found. These values are multiplied by relative priorities of criteria giving the composite priorities of alternatives. Finally the ranking of alternatives is listed and each alternative' s supply capacity is evaluated at a table. Capacity evaluation is made due complex transportation engineering techniques. Traffic volume at the end of the project life (20 years later) are forecasted according to transported passengers or vehicles by the existing crossing alternatives. The difference between this forecasted traffic volume and supplies of existing crossing alternatives are found. Necessary numbers of each alternative to transport this difference are calculated. Finally these numbers are compared with upper limits of each alternative. The developed ES will help the decision makers in their choice of the best available alternative for any type“metropolitan or suburb”water crossing problem at a crossing area of lake, bay, river, strait, channel, sea between island and continent or two islands by using a multicriteria approach during the evaluations, through if-then rules. Some of these major water crossings in our country are the Straits (the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles), Golden Horn, Izmit Bay, and Izmir Bay. xivThe validity of the developed model is verified through two case studies: - Bosphorus crossing as a metropolitan crossing problem (ES2, ES4, and ES5 modules are used). - Izmit Bay crossing as an example of suburban crossing (ESI and ES3 modules are used). For the Bosphorus crossing, the best alternatives are: 1. Tunnel for railway vehicles (75.91%) 2. Boat (74.26%) 3. Sea Bus (67.54%) For Izmit Bay crossing on the other hand, the best alternatives are: 1. Ferryboat for wheeled vehicles (70.64%) 2. Ferryboat for railway vehicles (69.7%) 3. Bridge for wheeled vehicles (66.89%) Also a sensitivity analysis is applied to the alternatives proposed by the model. xvThe developed expert system is composed of five basic modules; each developed for different crossing possibilities that can be listed as: - ESI, evaluating four alternatives concerning wheeled vehicles - ES2, evaluating three alternatives concerning wheeled vehicles - ES3, evaluating four alternatives concerning railway vehicles - ES4, evaluating three alternatives concerning railway vehicles - ES5, evaluating three vessel alternatives In each module 4 sub-modules evaluate the alternatives according to; - Crossing area characteristics, - Economical aspect, - Environmental suitability, and - Social impact. First of all relative priorities of these four criteria are calculated by Analytical Hierarchy Process and then by executing necessary sub-modules average probability values of alternatives according to each criterion are found. These values are multiplied by relative priorities of criteria giving the composite priorities of alternatives. Finally the ranking of alternatives is listed and each alternative' s supply capacity is evaluated at a table. Capacity evaluation is made due complex transportation engineering techniques. Traffic volume at the end of the project life (20 years later) are forecasted according to transported passengers or vehicles by the existing crossing alternatives. The difference between this forecasted traffic volume and supplies of existing crossing alternatives are found. Necessary numbers of each alternative to transport this difference are calculated. Finally these numbers are compared with upper limits of each alternative. The developed ES will help the decision makers in their choice of the best available alternative for any type“metropolitan or suburb”water crossing problem at a crossing area of lake, bay, river, strait, channel, sea between island and continent or two islands by using a multicriteria approach during the evaluations, through if-then rules. Some of these major water crossings in our country are the Straits (the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles), Golden Horn, Izmit Bay, and Izmir Bay. xivThe validity of the developed model is verified through two case studies: - Bosphorus crossing as a metropolitan crossing problem (ES2, ES4, and ES5 modules are used). - Izmit Bay crossing as an example of suburban crossing (ESI and ES3 modules are used). For the Bosphorus crossing, the best alternatives are: 1. Tunnel for railway vehicles (75.91%) 2. Boat (74.26%) 3. Sea Bus (67.54%) For Izmit Bay crossing on the other hand, the best alternatives are: 1. Ferryboat for wheeled vehicles (70.64%) 2. Ferryboat for railway vehicles (69.7%) 3. Bridge for wheeled vehicles (66.89%) Also a sensitivity analysis is applied to the alternatives proposed by the model. xvThe developed expert system is composed of five basic modules; each developed for different crossing possibilities that can be listed as: - ESI, evaluating four alternatives concerning wheeled vehicles - ES2, evaluating three alternatives concerning wheeled vehicles - ES3, evaluating four alternatives concerning railway vehicles - ES4, evaluating three alternatives concerning railway vehicles - ES5, evaluating three vessel alternatives In each module 4 sub-modules evaluate the alternatives according to; - Crossing area characteristics, - Economical aspect, - Environmental suitability, and - Social impact. First of all relative priorities of these four criteria are calculated by Analytical Hierarchy Process and then by executing necessary sub-modules average probability values of alternatives according to each criterion are found. These values are multiplied by relative priorities of criteria giving the composite priorities of alternatives. Finally the ranking of alternatives is listed and each alternative' s supply capacity is evaluated at a table. Capacity evaluation is made due complex transportation engineering techniques. Traffic volume at the end of the project life (20 years later) are forecasted according to transported passengers or vehicles by the existing crossing alternatives. The difference between this forecasted traffic volume and supplies of existing crossing alternatives are found. Necessary numbers of each alternative to transport this difference are calculated. Finally these numbers are compared with upper limits of each alternative. The developed ES will help the decision makers in their choice of the best available alternative for any type“metropolitan or suburb”water crossing problem at a crossing area of lake, bay, river, strait, channel, sea between island and continent or two islands by using a multicriteria approach during the evaluations, through if-then rules. Some of these major water crossings in our country are the Straits (the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles), Golden Horn, Izmit Bay, and Izmir Bay. xivThe validity of the developed model is verified through two case studies: - Bosphorus crossing as a metropolitan crossing problem (ES2, ES4, and ES5 modules are used). - Izmit Bay crossing as an example of suburban crossing (ESI and ES3 modules are used). For the Bosphorus crossing, the best alternatives are: 1. Tunnel for railway vehicles (75.91%) 2. Boat (74.26%) 3. Sea Bus (67.54%) For Izmit Bay crossing on the other hand, the best alternatives are: 1. Ferryboat for wheeled vehicles (70.64%) 2. Ferryboat for railway vehicles (69.7%) 3. Bridge for wheeled vehicles (66.89%) Also a sensitivity analysis is applied to the alternatives proposed by the model. xv
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