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Three essays on natural rates

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  1. Tez No: 717130
  2. Yazar: HUSEYİN UTKU DEMIR
  3. Danışmanlar: PROF. CHRİSTOS GİANNİKOS, DOÇ. MERİH UCTUM
  4. Tez Türü: Doktora
  5. Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 2020
  8. Dil: İngilizce
  9. Üniversite: CUNY The Graduate School and University Center of the City University of New York
  10. Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  12. Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: 101

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Özet (Çeviri)

Chapter 1. Non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment and Non-accelerating inflation rate of output We followed Ball and Mankiw (2002) to estimate the natural rates of output and unemployment. The primary purposes of this paper are to provide more accurate estimates of a varying non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) than currently exist and to find a new measure for the nonaccelerating inflation rate of output so we can estimate the output gap more accurately. Our contributions are adding time-varying coefficients estimated with a break test and finding more accurate measurements for the natural rate of unemployment. We also estimated the time-varying natural rate of output and the output gap because of Okun's law, which shows proportionality and a negative relationship between the output gap and unemployment. We showed that our measure of the output gap predicts all the loss criteria and all periods better than the CBO output gap and the Mankiw output gap. We also showed that our measure of the unemployment gap predicted all the loss criteria and all periods better than the CBO unemployment gap and the Mankiw unemployment gap. Chapter 2. Inflation Dynamics Unemployment, output, labor share (and other measures of slack) and inflation have been disconnected in recent years, especially after the global crisis. Some argued that the Phillips curve had disappeared. Estimating the output gap and the unemployment gap might not give accurate results because they are unobservable natural

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