China's economic rebalancing and its sources of unsustainable growth through a historical perspective
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 770243
- Danışmanlar: Belirtilmemiş.
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, Siyasal Bilimler, Economics, Political Science
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2017
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: Peking University
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 68
Özet
This thesis carries the main aim of defining the viable paths for macroeconomic rebalancing for the Chinese economy. The long-lasting political economy model that was erected on an investment driven model, which is a personal preference to favor naming the concept as 'the Developmental State' model, has been unproductive for an extensive period. Hence, China lagged in mobilizing the necessary instruments to make a timely change in these policies that once benefited individual parts and even more to say, certain cliques or class in the society. Alexander Gerschenkron was the architect of the initial attempt at building a theory around this investment-driven growth model. Precisely, this model relies on the intervention of the state to help their infant industries scale their businesses concurrent to a catching-up process in technology with developed countries. China might be the last major nation to rely on this model, but it certainly is not the first one. The East Asian Developmental State Model, which Chalmers Johnson initiated by thoroughly analyzing the Japanese developmental model. This model is already extensively observed on the productivity, industrial systems, and income level frontiers, but I believe that the number of observations that follow along with the line of industrial policies and connect the outcome to macroeconomic monetary issues are scant. The biggest problem of the economies that implement the investment-driven developmental model is that it relies on suppressing consumption to bolster its export industries, as well as realizing the necessary productive investments, which the private sector is too infant or too involuntary to undertake. Hence a national economy that can apply this equation for a certain period can without a doubt become a success story, but certainly not forever. China has been the last significant example of this model, as unproductive investment has been mounting in Chinese balance sheets, and leaving economists in wonder how Beijing is planning to overcome the issue of making a paradigm shift in its political economy model to reroute the Chinese economy on value and wealth creating track once again. The first goal must be identifying the problem itself, and thus, this brings us to the watershed of the framework of this research, which specifies the surging debt as what Peking University Master Dissertation IV generates the remarkable growth figures in China through unproductive investment. This study will identify China's surging debt as becoming a chronic issue for the national economy and see its association to the savings and investment glut. For providing a more analytic and holistic approach, the work looks into the roots of the problem via the historical precedents of similar magnitude that ended up becoming alternative paths to rebalancing from heavily distorted balance sheets and mounting debt on their national accounts. I have picked two major examples for Chinese case for the reason of their resemblance on the debt problem of their national economies that failed to evade a dramatic downturn of events after long years of investment driven high growth economies. The first one is the Great Depression of the United States that ended up with arguably the biggest economic crisis of the 20th century, and led to the infliction of collateral damage that reverberated far beyond where its boundaries were believed to lie. The second example is the notorious rebalancing process of Japan in the 1990s, following the major property and equity bubbles in the latter half of the 1980s. The resulting aftermath that is called the 'lost decades' of Japan, is still continuing as the country has experienced with some of the most radical monetary policies yet failed to generate sustainable growth in their national economy. The principal contradiction of the two precedents happens to lie in their aftermath rather than the processes that led to such paramount failures. While the rebalancing of the United States has been very painful in the short term, the country managed to rebound with a strong recovery in its borders, during a simultaneous disastrous mayhem taking stage in Europe. Meanwhile, Japan has not had anything that we can regard as a dramatic and acute rebalancing which has the definition as a state of crisis in this dissertation. Japan has arguably lost its privileged position in the global economy as a superpower. After observing both of these antecedents firmly, this study hopes to bring about an optimal framework for Chinese national political economy model for the imminent future. Emphasis is made on the macroeconomic attributes of the readjustment act as industrial policies are believed to align with wherever the money may reside to create optimal value. The contemporary conditions of the current global political economy are reflected upon to distinguish the position of Chinese economy vis-à-vis the former cases. KEY WORDS: Rebalancing, macroeconomics, investment, debt, balance sheet.
Özet (Çeviri)
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