Türkiye'de dış borç sorunu: Borçlanma stratejileri ve borç yönetimi
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 36424
- Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. UĞUR KORUM
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1994
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Ankara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 156
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
SUMMARY Parallel to the enlarging debt stock of developing countries, making uncontrolled an excessive debt was augmented and created risks economically and politically for developing countries and institutions providing international funds to the debtor countries. Therefore debt management policy especially gained importance for these countries in recent years. Rising risks of developing countries in international markets and unbearably rising domestic debt stock enforce developing countries to take care for managing borrowing policy. Developing countries and Turkey borrowing abroad since they are targeting to take place among industrialized countries. To achieve this goal they should improve and modify their macroeconomic indicators such as consistent and sufficient GDP growth rate, higher per capita income, capital stock and price stability. As widely acknowledge, all developing countries may need external borrowing to achieve these goals. However borrowing should be sustainable and not causes some instabilities on macroeconomic balances. Therefore countries having good prestige and high credibility ratios in international markets should learn and perform well-organized debt management. There are two main objectives in implementing debt management. First of them is to reduce current debt stock gradually and systematically and diminish the borrowing requirement. The second is to protect countries' debt stocks from risky environment created by fluctuating interest and foreign exchange rates. 128In this study, besides general view to debt management theory, more concentration has been adopted to reach on those objectives by using different debt management techniques on behalf of Turkey. In the fist section the recent developments related to Turkey's debt stock and borrowing policy are explained. Additionally a regression analysis covering the years among 1978-1993 and analysing debt stock structure historically is performed. In the second section, debt management techniques are analysed. Besides the analysis of debt management techniques, also structure and behaviors of financial markets are investigated. In addition to those, it is also pointed out some criteria determining creditworthiness on country and institutional base in this section. In the last section of this thesis, it is tried to explain not only borrowing strategy of Turkey but also the efficient factors on external debt management such as foreign exchange revenues, foreign exchange composition of debt stock and effects of foreign exchange rates fluctuating up to market conditions. As a consequence of thesis, it is defended that foreign borrowing is one of the most crucial ways of filling gaps occurring as a result of some macroeconomic instabilities. In order to achieve efficient and sophisticate debt management, there are three main conditions listed as follows; - To construct the most suitable borrowing strategy, - To disburse foreign funds parallel to their borrowing objectives, - To construct an efficient debt management policy. On the other hand those conditions mentioned above may not be implemented every time because of the borrowing capability of a country is directly related to her 129image and creditworthiness. In that context, the previous performance of a country in repaying principal and interest payments is the most essential criterion effecting the image of a country. In addition to this, creditworthiness of a country shaped according to growth rate of GDP, international reserves, exports, economic and political performance is second criterion while making borrowing in international markets. Restrictions in debt management and borrowing opportunities confronted by developing countries are mostly stemmed from their credibility. For this reason, developing countries could take very limited roles in the financial markets by using risk management techniques like swaps, futures, forwards and options. Therefore, Turkey had acquired her first swaps transaction in 1993. Unfortunately, there is not any transaction in the futures, forwards and options markets. Especially from the beginning of 1994 because of decreasing creditworthiness rating, there is no opportunity for Turkey in the financial markets as an investable borrower. This situation causes important fluctuations in domestic economy needs foreign resources permanently. As a result, Turkey could manage her external liabilities, only under the permission of international financial market conditions and domestic economic stability. 130
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