Analyzing transition dynamics the actor-option framework for modelling socio-technical systems
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 400033
- Danışmanlar: PROF. C. E. VAN DAALEN
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği, Endüstri Ürünleri Tasarımı, Industrial and Industrial Engineering, Industrial Design
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2010
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: Technische Universiteit Delft (Delft University of Technology)
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 306
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
This study belongs to the cluster of analytical transition studies, and focuses on the dynamics of transitions, specifically in the context of socio-technical systems, and on the means of studying these dynamics. Mainly driven by the insufficiency of qualitative approaches in explaining transition dynamics, our main research objectives are set to be;Investigation of simulation-supported analysis in order to identify potential contribution ? and limitations of the approach in studying transition dynamics.Development of a general conceptual framework, which is compatible with simulation- ? supported analysis, for analyzing transition dynamics in socio-technical systems.The first part of the research is a methodological investigation and discussion, which focuses on simulation-supported analysis by taking into account different approaches, techniques and applications. The second part of the research is about the actor-option framework, which is developed as a general basis for simulation-supported analyses of transition dynamics. In the third part of the research, we explore the usability of the actor-option framework in simulation-supported analyses through conducting three modelling studies.Part I: Simulation-supported analysis in transition studiesIt is the transition path taken and the way this path is shaped that is of interest in analytical transition studies, more than the final state of the studied system, or any other static concept. However, the systems that are studied in the transition field are typically complex adaptive systems, and they demonstrate dynamic complexity, which is almost impossible to analyze through qualitative approaches. This study advocates computational approaches in general, and computer simulation in specific, as promising ones for analyzing the complexity of transition dynamics. While we provide a comprehensive methodological discussion in Part I, we mainly focus on three issues; the different ways in which simulation models can be used in transition studies, the major limitations of using simulation models in analyzing transition dynamics, and different approaches through which such models can be developed.Model-use in transition studiesa.As a consequence of simulation-supported analyses? ongoing evolution following its introduction to social sciences, it is possible to identify different uses of models in studying social phenomena. Three of these uses, which are highly relevant for transition studies, are discussed in Chapter 2. Briefly, these three model-uses are as follows;Case-specific insight development: ? Exploration of plausible transition trajectories for a particular socio-technical systemGeneric insight development: ? Studying behavioural consequences of a set of interacting processes under various circumstances using generic modelsTheory development and refinement: ? Evaluation and refinement of a proposed theory that claims to explain transition dynamics using models that are developed based on the premises of the theoryWe also discuss that simulation-supported analysis is traditionally associated only with the first type of model-use, such an association undermines the potential of the approach by overlooking the other two uses.Modelling approaches for transition studiesb.In Chapter 3, we review a set of established modelling paradigms used for analyzing socio-economical phenomena, i.e. econometrics, micro-simulation, system dynamics (SD), and agent-based (AB) modelling. Considering the dominant perspectives, and the overall objectives in transition studies, we recognize the latter two approaches, as promising ones for transition studies, and further investigate them, especially with regard to the conceptual frames they impose.We discuss that it would be misleading to assume a single approach as the magic bullet, considering the multi-dimensional nature of the transition problem, and the variety of potential uses of models within this context. Similarly, it is hard to speak about a single comprehensive model to study all aspects of transitions. We conclude that it is misleading to make a general statement about which approach works better in transition studies, since SD, AB, and hybrid models (i.e. models that combine SD and ABM components) have different merits that fit to different challenges within transition studies field.Challenges for simulation-supported analyses of transition dynamicsc.In Chapter 2, we discuss a set of shortcomings, and related methodological challenges for simulation-supported analysis when it is considered in the context of analyzing transitional change. The main shortcomings and related challenges regarding the approach stem from three major issues; modelling the social, capturing the novelty, and role of contingencies. Major implications of these issues for simulation-supported analyses, in general, and for the three modelling uses discussed in Chapter 2, in specific, are discussed in Section 2.4 in detail.Part II: The actor-option frameworkPart II introduces the actor-option framework for modelling socio-technical systems. Detailed case studies of various transitions, and transition-related change processes constituted the empirical basis for the actor-option framework, which briefly provides a set of basic building blocks and a set of change mechanisms related to these for developing explanatory models.Basic building blocks of the a. actor-option frameworkTransitional change dynamics in socio-technical systems are a result of conjoint changes in social and techno-physical aspects of the system. These aspects have their own internal dynamics, and they differ significantly in their nature. As a result, we concluded that in order to explain transition dynamics properly, dynamics on social and techno-physical aspects should be considered simultaneously, but separately. One of the building blocks of the framework (i.e. actor) is considered for representing the social elements of the system. The state of the techno-physical world is very important in shaping the behaviour of the actors? in the context of a societal function. Especially, the techno-physical elements that constitute alternatives for the actors regarding the fulfilment of the societal function are of primary importance in this sense. The second building block of the framework, i.e. option, corresponds to such alternatives.The actor heterogeneity plays an important role in shaping transition. We suggest, firstly, explicit representation of the key aspects that may differentiate actors in terms of their behaviour, and especially choices, within a transition context; preferences, references, commitments. Secondly, we propose categorizing actors into four different role types, which differ in the impact on the system of the choices made by an actor. These four actor roles, i.e. regulators, providers, practitioners, opinion groups, are discussed in detail in Chapter 4. An option in the actor-option framework is a broader concept than a stand-alone technology or an artefact, and it is characterized by, so called, embodied and disembodied properties. Embodied properties are related to the techno-physical nature of an option, and they can be observed even when the option is isolated from its socio-economical context. Disembodied properties are related to the context in which the option functions.Mechanisms of changeb.The general conceptual representation aimed with the actor-option framework is primarily to explain transitional change in terms of endogenous processes of change; i.e. mechanisms. These mechanisms are primarily related to changes of options in relation to actors? choices, changes of actors? information about their environment and available options, and changes in the identity of the actors that condition their choices. In our analyses, we identified 10 general mechanisms under three different groups (i.e. mechanisms on option change, on actors? knowledge, on actors? identity), and these mechanisms are discussed in detail in Chapter 5.Our inductive analysis of case studies from the literature resulted in a conceptual framework, which identifies building blocks, and a set of mechanisms. These mechanisms explain how these blocks interact and change, and consequently shape system?s transition dynamics. In that respect, the actor-option framework is not a general transition model, but it is a compilation of modular concepts (i.e. actors, options, and mechanisms) for developing models that are case-specific, or generic at some level.Part III: The actor-option framework in useIn the third part of the study, we apply the actor-option framework in three modelling studies. Additionally, we also discuss the extent to which the framework can serve as a general conceptual basis, and its conceptual and practical limitations. Furthermore, the analyses conducted with the models provide evidence regarding the basic premises of the framework.284 SummaryTwo of the studied cases are historical transitions; transition in the Dutch waste management system, and transition in the British naval transportation system. The third case focuses on the current state of the Dutch electricity system, and its plausible change dynamics. As we discuss in Section 11.2, the framework can successfully be applied to these different contexts without difficulty. This provides us important evidence about the contextual generality of the framework. Besides, we also show that the framework can be used to support analyses at differing aggregation levels by developing models that differ in aggregation. Among these the WasteTrans model is the most aggregate example, whereas the ElectTrans model has the least aggregation in terms of both the options and the actors. In these three studies, we demonstrate that the models developed using the framework can be used to explore social (e.g. norms, preferences), regulatory (e.g. market regulations, subsidy schemes), and techno-physical aspects (e.g. new technologies). As we discuss in Section 11.4, the models presented in Chapters 8 through 10 constitute examples for the different models-uses discussed in Chapter 2. This way we further clarify the differences between these three uses and their potential contributions by examples.The actor-option framework builds on three fundamental premises briefly about the importance of explicitly addressing the social actors, avoiding the aggregation of system elements of different natures, and staying at a policy-relevant abstraction level. During the analyses with the three models, we identify a set of circumstances that support the importance of these premises in explaining the observed transition dynamics. These circumstances, on which we reflect in Chapter 11, support the design choices made in developing the actor-option framework.The three modelling applications of the framework provided us the opportunity to investigate the limitations of the framework. The most important limitation is related to the endogenous representation of the institutional change processes. Although it is possible to include institutional changes into the analyses in the form of scenarios as in the case of ElectTrans, or very abstract endogenous indicators as in the case of WasteTrans, the framework is evaluated to be limited in terms of institutional change mechanisms. Moreover, the quantification of the mechanisms related to the behavioural identities of the actors is observed to be one of the most challenging processes. As it is demonstrated in the WasteTrans case, such a limitation can be overcome to an extent by supporting the conclusions with extensive sensitivity analyses. A second practical problem is related with analyses using models rich in detail and low in the aggregation (e.g. ElectTrans). A proper analysis of transitional dynamics requires considering a vast number of scenarios, as well as social and technological uncertainties. Therefore, novel experimental analysis approaches that rely on more extensive sets of simulations are needed to supplement the use of the framework in such detailed modelling cases.
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