Essays on dynamic macroeconomics
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 400334
- Danışmanlar: VARADARAJAN V. CHARI, LARRY JONES
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2010
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: University of Minnesota
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: İktisat Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 157
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
This dissertation, titled ?Essays on Dynamic Macroeconomics? is comprisedof three papers which share the common ground of employing toolsof modern dynamic macroeconomics. All the three papers apply moderntechnical tools of macroeconomics in dynamic environments to differentmacroeconomic problems and observations, develop mechanisms and modelsto account for these observations and finally test explanatory powers of theprovided mechanisms.The first paper, titled ?Political Turnover, Taxes, and the Shadow Economy?is motivated from several cross-section empirical studies which arguethat a higher tax burden or different indicators of statutory tax rates areassociated with a smaller informal economy. In the paper I show that theturnover of governments provides the key to understanding this relation. Tothis end, I present evidence that once political turnover is controlled for,the data shows no association between the tax burden and the size of theinformal economy. This result is empirically robust in a panel data consistingof 80 countries and 5 years. To account for this observation, I developa dynamic political economy model with two political parties alternating inoffice. In equilibrium, if the incumbent party faces a higher probability ofstaying in office, it sets a higher tax rate to invest more in productive publiccapital, while spending less for current office rent. I argue that public capitalis mainly utilized by the formal sector and this implies that countries inwhich incumbent parties are more likely to stay in power, have a higher taxburden but a smaller informal sector. Finally, I compare the model againstthe data and present evidence that my theory is consistent with empiricalobservations.In the second paper, titled ?A Theory of Economic Development withEndogenous Fertility?, I integrate two existing theories of economic developmentto account for the time-series evolution of output, fertility and populationin transition through the industrialization of an economy. Specifically,I extend a standard two-sector overlapping generations model with endogenousfertility and human capital decisions. Initially, the aggregate humancapital and return to education are low and parents invest in quantity ofchildren. Once sufficient human capital is accumulated, with the activationof the modern human capital intensive sector, parents start to investin quality of their children. The simulation of the model economy successfullycaptures the evolution of fertility, population and GDP of the Britisheconomy between 1750 and 2000.Finally, in the third chapter, titled ?Not-Quite-Great Depressions ofTurkey?, which is based on a paper written together with my coauthorDeniz C¸ i¸cek, following the great depressions methodology we use growth accountingand perfect foresight dynamic general equilibrium models to studygrowth performance of Turkey from 1968 to 2004. We calculate the totalfactor productivity from the growth accounting exercise and obtain the consumptiontax rate and the effective marginal tax rates on labor and capitalincome from the data and feed them into our model. Our benchmark modelwithout any frictions and taxes accounts for 86% of the observed change inthe growth rate of GDP per-working age person from 1968 to 2004 and oncewe extend the model with taxes and capital adjustment costs it accountsfor 60% of the observed reduction in hours worked per-working age personand 35% of the change in the growth rate of capital-output ratio from 1968to 2004. Also, we identify that the Turkish economy experienced a depressionfrom 1976 to 1984 and the extended model performs remarkably wellto account for the observed change in GDP per-working age person, capitaloutputratio and hours worked during this depression period. Our findingsgenerally suggest that rigidities affecting capital accumulation and governmentpolicies using distortionary taxes have a crucial role in explaining theevolution of the selected variables of the Turkish economy.
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