Altın, altın borsası ve Türkiye'de uygulanabilirliği
Gold, gold exchange and its applicability in Turkey
- Tez No: 41353
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ.DR. ALİ OSMAN GÜRBÜZ
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: İşletme, Business Administration
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1995
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Marmara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 115
Özet
Özet yok.
Özet (Çeviri)
ABSTRACT Turkey is the second largest gold fabricator in Europe and thesecond largest in the Middle East. The popular esteem for the metal is reflected in private hoarding estimated at between 3500-4000 tonnes. Such holdings represent between 2.9 and 3.3% of the 120,000 tonnes of stocks in the hands of man. In this study, I tried to define what gold is and consequently tried to describe demand and supply for gold. Furthermore, I tried to discuss derivative markets and gold-linked instruments. As a matter of fact, I tried to study the gold demand and supply in Turkey and the newly established gold exchange in Istanbul. Gold is a commodity and its demand is classified as; (l)non-monetary demand for industrial fabrication, (2)monetary demand for reserves by commercial or central banks, and (3)investment demand by the private sector. On the other hand, supply of gold is mine output and supply from above ground stocks. Central bank demand and private sector demand should be taken into consideration in analyzing the prospects for gold in the developed countries. In addition, in underdeveloped economies, a moderate gold price and no regulatory restraints on gold purchases result in demand for gold accumulating in the form of bars and jewelry. The breakdown of Former Soviet bloc countries made it possible to estimate net sales of gold to the west. USSR used to be the second largestt producer after South Africa, however since the breakup, it has moved to the fourth place. IVThe arguments in favour of liberalization apply even more clearly to gold than to most goods and services. However, in most countries it lags behind other fields of liberalisation. Gold markets operates from three major locations. (l)London market determines spot gold price, (2)New York futures market speculates on the movements in spot prices and (3) physical gold is generally shipped largely through Zurich. Gold provides an anchor for money supply. Such as; when a country chooses to make a credible commitment in order to stabilise rapid inflation, it uses an exchange rate peg gold peg. As gold is traded freely in an unrestricted market, then its price is useful as a sensitive leading indicator because it reflects day-to-day basis investors' expectations as to the degree of menatary ease or tightness. High tax rates on capital gains on gold would discriminate against gold in favour of other investment tools such as equities and bonds. Free trade of gold should not be prohibited, such as, if gold is produced more cheaply abroad than at home, or if demand is greater at home, then it is more efficient to import the commodity than to discourage imports. The size of the market for gold loans has increased more than three folds in the past in ten years. It is estimated that 2000 tonnes were on loans in the market, almost equivalent to one year's output of world gold mines. Gold is mainly borrowed for three reasons; (1) gold producers and dealing banks borrow gold to support hedging operations and to finance exploration and extraction activities, (2) refineries and manufacturers of small bars,coins and jewelry borrow gold in order to avoid price risk, (3) commercial banks and dealers borrow gold to finance arbitrage transactions, the requirement for funding in gold has grown steadily over the past decade and the pace accelerated during 1990-93 period as physical demand rose strongly in response to lower prices. Supply of gold loans; private holdings of gold increased, thus reinforced its appeal as an investment tool. Commercial institutions, on the other hand, directed their cash towards gold market in an increasing amount. During the second half of 1980s, investors interest in gold began to diminish. This was partly the consequence of a somewhat disappointing price performance, but also a result of competition from new financial products offering attractive returns. During the last ten years, gold lending by central banks has emerged as the dominant source of market liquidity, funding as estimated 75%of the worldwide demand for borrowing. Besides, mining companies increasingly recognized the potential benefits of hedging future output. There are two basic indicators which measure the cost of borrowing gold- lease rate and the implied gold interest rate derived from swap transactions. The issue of whether the existence of gold derivatives (such as futures, options and forward contracts) subtarct or add to, world demand for physical gold is discussed. Investing in derivatives dimmish the price risk of holding physical gold. The demand for physical gold expands as a result of derivatives. Investors in derivatives are able to; (1) economize the cost of holding physical gold, (2) obtain increased opportunities for portfolio VIdiversification, (3) earn cashflow. Besides, derivatives trading allow the market for spot gold to operate more efficiently. In addition to affecting the liqudity and price level in the spot market, trading in derivative assets could also affect the volatility of the spot price. Among major gold-linked instruments, gold bonds, gold mining equities and other gold linked instruments (futures and options) could be named. Gold in Turkey; there are three sources of gold supply in Turkey, (1) domestic gold supply, (2) legal imports and (3) illegal imports. Until 1960s, establishing substantial gold reserve had been the major aim of Central Bank and gold trade had never been an issue of discussion. Between 1960-80, the government aimed to control the illegal gold imports to the country. In 1989, Central Bank has established a market called“gold in exchange of FX”where it protected its monopolistic position as an unprocessed gold importer. In 1989, further modifications were made in law no:32 in order to totally liberate gold trade which was actually the legal framework of estabtishing the gold exchange. The modifications included totally liberalization gold prices, gold imports and exports. Thus, TL price of gold was no more due to restrictions of Central Bank, but started to be done totally by the market. Liberalisation of goldmarket has decreased the price gap between the world and local prices of gold. The declining spreads, would increase the competitiveness of the Turkish gold sector and would increase demand for gold as an investment tool. The amount of gold in the hands of Turkish public reaches 3500-4000 tonnes, USD 60 bn, thus with the introduction of new investment instruments linked to gold would activate this passive gold holdings. VllAccordingly, modifications in the Capital Markets Law introduced gold, gold-linked instruments and gold derivatives. Turket gold reform includes the following six principals;. gold jewelry sector. gold savings and publics intention for saving in gold. Istanbul Gold Exchange. Gold linked and gold derivative financial instruments. gold refinery. gold mining In parallel with these developments and establishment of Gold exchange preparations have begun for launching a series of financial products designed to take advantage of the particular role of gold in Turkey and of the large stocks of gold in private hands. The past 18 months' amendments to the capital Markets Law have opened the way for new financial products backed by gold. This way part of people's fresh savings should be diverted to gold-backed financial instruments: a research by the World Gold Council found that half of those surveyed were interested in new financial tools and about 5 % would consider using their current gold holdings to buy these new instruments. While many in the industry welcome this initiative, others argue that instruments such as gold deposit accounts and gold certificates should be issued by existing banks with an established credibility, sophisticated financial management skills and a broad branch network allowing them to access gold savings throughout the country. Vlll
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