Türk gemi inşa sektörünün durumu ve yük gemilerinin üretim analizi
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 46206
- Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. REŞAT BAYKAL
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Gemi Mühendisliği, Marine Engineering
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1995
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 93
Özet
ÖZET Bu tez çalışmasında, Türk Gemi İnşa Sektörü'nün, Türk Deniz Ticaret Filosu'na katkısı incelenmiş ve yük gemlerinin üretim analizi yapılmıştır. İkinci bölümde genel olarak Dünya Deniz Ticareti ve Deniz Ticaret filosunun durumu incelenmiştir. Dünya deniz ticaretinin mevcut durumu, yıllar itibariyle gerişimi ve beklentiler ele alınarak, deniz ticaret filosunun gelişimiyle birlikte incelenmiştir. Üçüncü bölümde, Türk deniz ticareti ve deniz ticaret filosunun durumu incelenmiştir. Türkiye'nin deniz taşımacılığı yıllar itibariyle ele alınmış, bu taşımalardaki Türk bayraklı gemilerin paylan incelenmiştir. Türk Deniz Ticaret Filosu'nun genel sayısal, DWT ve yaş analizleri yapılarak, dünya ve komşu ülke filoları ile karşılaştırılmış genel değerlendirmeler yapılmıştır. Dördüncü bölümde Türk Gemi İnşa sektörünün durumu ele alınmış, gemi inşa sektöründeki gelişmeler ve sektörün mevcut durumu incelenmiştir. Oldukça yaşlı olan ve kapasitesinin artırılması gereken Türk Deniz Ticaret Filosu'nun, 7. beş yıllık kalkınma planı dahilinde, 2000 yılma kadar hedeflenen kapasiteye ve yaş durumuna ulaştırılması için, filodan çıkarılması gereken yaşlı gemi miktarları, eklenmesi gereken, çeşitli yaş gruplarında, çeşitli tip ve büyüklüklerdeki gemi miktarları tespit edilmiş, bu ihtiyacın yurt içinde inşa yoluyla karşılanabilme olasılığı araştırılmış ve ithal yoluyla karşılanacak miktarlar için maliyet analizleri yapılmıştır. Beşinci ve son bölümde ise genel durum ve sonuçlar ortaya konmuş, alınması gerekli tedbirler ve öneriler belirtilmiştir. xı
Özet (Çeviri)
THE STATE OF TURKISH SHIPBUILDING INDUSTRY AND PRODUCTION ANALYSIS OF CARGO SHIPS SUMMARY As the Turkish trade volume grows, the shipping and transportation capacity steadily increases in accordance with the demand created in the marine transport market. As a natural result of this development, the number of ships in the Turkish fleet must also increase by addition to the fleet of new and functional ships which comply with the rules and regulations of the International Maritime Organisation (IMO' ). The planned macro projects under development, such as the South- Eastern Anatolian Project (GAP), the establishment of free trade zones, new thermal power generation plants and expansion to new markets are expected to lead to significant levels of trade volume growth, which in turn is expected to bring about higher rates of growth in Turkish shipping in the next several years. As a consequence, a new climate of maritime activity is likely to arise in which Turkish merchant fleet should take its position with various new types of vessels serving the requirements of the new marine transport scene. The statistics of the Chamber of Shipping in Istanbul show that the Turkish merchant fleet totalled some 1038 ships of 8.4 million DWT or 5 million GRT. In terms of deadweight, almost half of this capacity is comprised of bulk carriers, although in terms of the number of vessels, the largest category is still the general cargo ships. The capacity of oil tankers appear to increase in comparison to other types of ships, but there are no Turkish owned fully cellular container ship yet, while some multi-purpose vessels are utilised as container carriers. The second hand vessel purchases widely practised by the Turkish shipowners are reflected in the age profile of the Turkish merchant fleet. * MO (International Maritime Organisation) is the specialized agency of the United Nations which has responsibility for two major concerns; the safety of shipping and the prevention of pollution from ships. XllAccording to figures of the Chamber of Shipping, over half of the fleet about 5.4 million DWT, are aged 15 to 24 years. The average age of the Turkish merchant fleet is 18. However, the average age rises to 21 if the calculation is based on the number of vessels in the fleet and it is likely to even go older in the next few years. In the 7th Five Year Development Plan (1994-1999), the Turkish merchant fleet capacity is projected as 15 million DWT by the end of the decade. Faced with the state of affairs described by the statistic given above, the target for the Turkish merchant fleet capacity appears to be 15 million DWT while reducing the average age of the vessels down to a level which is closer to the average age of the world merchant fleet. The key to the realisation of this target is the capacity and the productivity performance of the Turkish shipbuilding industry in the near future. The statistics of the state owned Turkish Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and the Association of Private Shipbuilding Industries show that the total Turkish shipbuilding capacity is 488,000 DWT per year. The state owned shipyards contribute to this total by 178,000 DWT per year while the capacity of the privately owned shipyards is 310,000 DWT per year. In spite of the 488,000 DWT per year total production capacity available in the shipbuilding industry, the average production per year is approximately 100,000 DWT. This suggests that the utilisation is only 20% per year. This ratio is insufficient for any claim to competition in the international shipbuilding markets. In order to achieve the goal of improving the carrying capacity of the merchant fleet and modernising its components, the production capacity and productivity of the shipbuilding industry has to be increased to levels which are necessary to compete in global shipbuilding market. The production capacity of the Turkish shipbuilding industry is planned to reach 1,000,000 DWT per year by the end of the decade in the 7th Five Year Development Plan (1994-1999). The improvement of the performance of the Turkish shipbuilding industry is likely to benefit the Turkish merchant fleet. A strong shipbuilding industry is necessary for the growth of the fleet capacity as well as the development of side industry and subcontractor activities and the reduction of unemployment in the heavy industry sector. To obtain these not so xminsignificant contributions to the economy, some governmental support towards the shipbuilding sector is required for modernising and increasing productivity. Although the average Turkish building costs are very competitive in comparison with the world shipbuilding market, the fundamental shortcoming is the delivery times which tend to be uncompetitively long and unpredictable. This is partly related to poor productivity but also to problems involved in importing components into the country. The reason of low productivity is lack of suitable design projects, low technology, insufficient work planning and work practices, wrong choice of equipment, lack of qualified employees and management. A common misconception is that workers are the main determinant of productivity. Technological improvement have resulted in the largest productivity gains in recent decades. Mechanised equipment, contemporary tooling and computers have made jobs safer and more productive. However, productivity gains are the result of a number of factors. Productivity stems from the efficiency of labor, the effectiveness of management and the state of technology. Technology includes new ideas, inventions, techniques, methods and materials. Management integrates labor with technology to produce outputs. The long run gains in productivity tend to come from the efficiency of labor. Productivity can be increased by more efficient production, without any additional cost. Better work methods and scheduling can yield immediate productivity gains. However; there is a point beyond which additional productivity increases can only be achieved by increased capital investment and technological advances: mechanised equipment, better tools and computers. Productivity problems tend to have an operational focus. They may be the effect rather than the cause, or just the tip of an iceberg. Beneath the surface may be strategic or structural problems in the organisation. If problems are strategic, they need strategic changes, not merely operational ones. From a strategic point of view, many plants may be too big, attempting to make too many products, based on too many technologies, or directed to the needs of too many markets. Attempts to increase productivity by decreasing the unit cost should be based on a strong strategic plan. xivIn the 90's, the Turkish shipping trades internationally far more than in the past In 1994 Turkish shipping contributes some $3000 Million annually to the national economy. The earnings are expected to increase steadily for the next several years. For this reason, Government support for enlarging and modernising Turkish merchant fleet and Turkish Shipbuilding Industry, is expected. In the second Chapter of this thesis; world marine trade is examined. The world marine trade increased %3.1 in 1993. This ratio is not as good as expected in 1993, but the Chinese economic growth, which effected shipping was the best development for world shipping in 1993. the progress of world marine trade and shipping are examined in detail for the years 1984-1993 based on the total cargo capacity realised in that period. World merchant fleet is also examined in detail such as the capacity, ship types, average ages and vessel capacities. The relation between shipping and the world merchant fleet are pointed out. The demand for various ship types and capacities is traced. The world shipbuilding industry examined on the country basis, scrapping and new orders are presented for the 10 years up to 1993. After examining the present state of the world marine trade, world shipping and world merchant fleet, the world shipbuilding demand predictions are made for the future (1995-2005). In the third Chapter, Turkish marine trade is examined under the titles of international, domestic (Cabotage), cross trade and transit transportation. While charting the progress of the marine transport capacity within the 10 years up to 1993, the ratio of the shipping under the Turkish flag to those of the foreign flag is presented. The bulk transportation, oil transportation, general cargo transportation and container transportation are classified separately when examining the development of the Turkish shipping. The total cargo capacity increased from 39.6 million tons in 1984 to 83 million tons in 1993, but the ratio of the Turkish flag remained of approximately 40%. This ratio should be increased in the future. Turkey has 8333 km. marine cost, so from the cabotage transport demand, the Turkish shipping should benefit at a higher level then it does at present. While the transport capacity increased 110% within the period 1984- 1993, the fleet capacity increased only 37%. the Turkish fleet has 1.3% of the world fleet capacity and it is the 19th largest flag. Among the neighbour countries, Greece has the largest fleet with capacity of 52 million DWT, second is Southern Cyprus with 38.2 million DWT capacity, third is Russia xvwith 14. 1 million DWT and Turkey has the fourth largest fleet with 8.4 million DWT capacity. Turkish merchant fleet consists of a total at 1038 vessels at the end of 1994. 649 (63%) out of 1038 are newly built in the domestic shipyards, 388 (37%) out of 1038 are imported. According to figures from the Chamber of Shipping in Istanbul, Turkish merchant fleet's capacity was 8.4 million DWT at the end of 1994. 1.2 million DWT (14.4%) out of 8.4 million DWT is built in domestic shipyards and 7.2 million DWT (85.6%) out of 8.4 are imported. 98% of Turkish merchant fleet's capacity consists of bulk carriers, tankers, OBO and general cargo vessels. After examining the age of Turkish fleet based on DWT and the number of vessels, it is seen that, the imported second hand vessels constitute a large portion of the Turkish fleet It is well known fact that the imported second hand vessels are too old and they cannot compete in the international market. The rational and realistic solution of above mentioned problems is reorganising, modernising and increasing capacity of Turkish shipbuilding industry to support the Turkish merchant fleet. The government must support Turkish shipbuilding industry for this reason alone. In the fourth Chapter, the Turkish shipbuilding industry is examined in general as mentioned before. State owned Turkish Shipbuilding Industry corporation and the private shipbuilding industries are examined according their capacities, technology and productivity. The technological progress of the shipyards and their problems are examined, expectations for the future are explained in this Chapter. Finally, for the production analysis of cargo ships, a plan with regard to the 7th. Five Year Development Plan of Turkey is proposed. The purpose of the plan is enlarging end renewing the fleet The target is to increase the fleet capacity up to 15 million DWT, reduce the average age to the world merchant fleet's age averages and increase the Turkish shipbuilding capacity up to 1,000,000 DWT per year by the end of the decade. Each year is considered to be a step for reaching this target In the mentioned plan, the required fleet capacity is calculated for each year within the period 1995-1999. The capacity distributions are estimated according to xvithe Turkish trade and the progress of the fleet capacity. Furthermore, the new building capacity is calculated and compared to the total capacity with regard to type and capacity of ships required. Finally, the portion of the new building and the portion of the second hand capacities and types are determined. A financial analysis is carried out for the required second hand vessels with respect to the international new building and second hand markets. For the first step of the plan, 730,000 DWT capacity is needed for the fleet, the portion of the new building capacity is 260,000 DWT, the portion of the second hand capacity is 470,000 DWT. The finance required for the second hand capacity increase is determined as $250 million. xvn
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