A comparative analysis of firm valuation methods:Accuracy of firm valuation models; which gives moreaccurate results?
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 719817
- Danışmanlar: DR. NIGEL BROWN
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Maliye, Finance
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Accuracy of Firm Valuation Models, Alternative Valuation Models, Relative Valuation Models
- Yıl: 2014
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: University of South Wales
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 66
Özet
Özet yok.
Özet (Çeviri)
This research is based on the accuracy of the firm valuation models. In general, there are different type's valuation models. Investors, researchers, accounting practitioners and company shareholders tend to use these models in order to inquire about the company situation. Therefore, valuation models are substantial tools for the decision making about investment. However, the concern is about the accuracy of this valuation model. Do these models give the right value, or which models give much closer result to actual value? Therefore, this paper aimed to test the accuracy of the models. 9 firm valuation models are taken into consideration and examined. These examined models are divided in to two groups as an absolute valuation models, and relative valuation models. Discounted free cash flow (DCF), discounted dividend, and discounted residual income models are within the absolute valuation models. Price-earning (P/E), the price-earnings growth (P/EG), the price-book (P/B), price-sales (P/S), enterprise value-ebitda (EV/EBITDA), and enterprise value-sales (EV/S) valuation models are within the relative valuation models. These selected models are applied to 11 companies which are listed on the London Stock Exchange. In the process, when choosing the companies, some criteria are satisfied. For example, if a company did not pay dividend, or if a company market capitalization is lower than 5 billion £, these companies are deducted. After deduction based on the criteria, the companies is selected randomly in order to prevent from the bias such as similar results based on same industry, or same level of market size of a company. After that, 9 valuation models are applied to 11 final sample companies from 2010 to 2013 sample year. To examine the results accuracy, the estimated value and actual value are compared. In sum, the results suggest that relative valuation models could not be classified as a priority model among each other, because their valuation errors are closer to each other. In other words, there could not be found a certain evidence that one model has the highest error in all time when is from 2010 to 2013. For absolute valuation models, the results are obtained according to three assumptions which are no future growth of terminal value, future return of terminal value at constant level, future return of terminal value at growth level. According to findings, DCF valuation model has the highest valuation error on three assumptions. Moreover, if no future return is assumed, discounted dividend model is more accurate than cash flow and residual income based model; if future return at constant level and growth level is assumed, Residual income model is more accurate than discounted cash flow and discounted dividend based model. I also find that multiples valuations based on market expectation vary by one company to company because company peers are fundamental determiners to find the estimated value of a company. Therefore, Relative valuation models could be more beneficial for briefing the investors or researchers. On the other hand dividend and residual income models are more accurate than discounted cash flow due to free cash flow forecast. If 3 year discounting is compared with actual prices, valuation errors tend to show a decrease. So, maybe long term growth could give more reliable results for discounted cash flow.
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