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Gayrimenkul yatırım kararlarında fizibilite analizi

Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.

  1. Tez No: 75319
  2. Yazar: NALAN SEÇKİN
  3. Danışmanlar: PROF. DR. MEHMET HALUK ERKUT
  4. Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
  5. Konular: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği, Industrial and Industrial Engineering
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 1998
  8. Dil: Türkçe
  9. Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
  10. Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Endüstri Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
  12. Bilim Dalı: Endüstri Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: 160

Özet

ÖZET Yaşam standartlarının bütün dünyada genel olarak yükselmesine paralel olarak, insanlar daha iyi yaşama, çalışma ve dinlenme ortamları talep etmeye başlamıştır. Ülkemizde konut için çok daha önceleri başlamış olan bu beklentiler günümüzde yaygınlaşarak çalışma ve dinlenme ortamları için de geçerliliğini güçlü bir şekilde hissettirmeye başlamıştır. Yatırımcının beklentilerinin çok hızlı şekilde değişmesi ile oluşan daha karmaşık ve ayrıntılı çalışma zorunluluğu, bunlara bağlı olarak risklerin ve rantların sürekli değişkenliği gibi nedenlerden dolayı, yatırımcının ve/veya geliştirmecinin ön çalışmalara çok daha fazla önem vermesi gereğine inanılmaktadır. Gayrimenkul yatırımları konusunda ise bu yaklaşım, yatırımın ekonomik değerinin çok yüksek olması nedeniyle daha çok gereklilik hissettirmektedir. Gayrimenkul yatırımlarında fizibilite analizi konulu bu çalışmada izlenen yöntem, öncelikle büyük ölçekli gayrimenkul yatı rım kararlarının kuramsal ve uygulama süreci olmak üzere iki ana başlık altında ele alınması şeklinde olmuştur. Gayrimenkul yatırım kararları için ekonomik fizibilite analizi süreci çalışmada kuramsal süreç olarak verilmiştir. Bu bölümde, sürecin ana aşamalarının kapsamları ile bu aşamalar ı uygulanması sırasında dikkat edilmesi önerilen hususlar üzerinde durulmuştur. Çalışmanın uygulama sürecini ele alan bölümünde ise; kuramsal süreçte tanımlanan aşamaların büyük ölçekli ve çok işlevli bir yapı grubu için örneklemesi yapılmıştır. Çalışma altı bölümden oluşmaktadır; birinci bölüm olan giriş bölümünde çalışmanın konusu, amacı ve yöntemi açıklanmıştır. Çalışmada kavramsal bir bütünlük sağlayabilmek amacıyla gayrimenkul yatırım kararları ile ilgili genel kavramların tanımı ikinci bölümde verilmiştir. Üçüncü bölümde, gayrimenkul pazarının gelişimi konusunda bilgi verilerek bu pazarın karakteristik özellikleri ve sınıflandırılması ele alınmıştır. Dördüncü bölümde, gayrimenkul yatırım kararlarında fizibilite analizinin önemi vurgulanmış ve bu analiz sekiz aşamalı bir süreç olarak ele alınmıştır. Bu sürecin aşamalarının değerlendirilmesi ve uygulama esnasında önem kazanan faktörler bu bölümde incelenmiştir. Beşinci bölümde ise, dördüncü bölümde kuramsal açıklaması yapılan gayrimenkul yatırımlarında fizibilite analizi sürecinin İç Anadolu Bölgesi'nde yer alan çok işlevli bir dağ oteli yatırımı için uygulaması örneklenmiştir. Altıncı ve son bölümde ise çalışmanın sonuçları ve öneriler yer almaktadır. XII

Özet (Çeviri)

SUMMARY FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS FOR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT DECISIONS In today's conditions, it is not easy to decide about making an investment; because there are lots of investment areas and different risk levels according to those investment areas. People began to desire better living, working and resting standards, as the results of increasing on life standards in ail over the world and the developing information transfer through media channels. In this case“better standards”means the capacity of chances to reach everything in an easy and quick way, facing more little daily problems etc. In our country, these expectations had began with living areas, after these people began to demand these standards for their working and resting areas. Until the beginning of last decade, real estate developers were not interested in the standards of the real estates. Because of the increasing expectations of the people, developers begin to consider these expectations. They had“built and sell”logic, but now they begin to think developing environments. These environments include some other social facilities, in addition to the main objective. As an example, the living environments begin to have shopping, entertainment, sports, green areas and schools etc. These kinds of the investments need huge budgets. In the last decade, state and the responsible branches of the state began to support these kind of the projects. At the same time, the corporation between the state and the private organizations is increasing. These kinds of the supports have given the opportunities to the state to control and organize the city planning. Ataköy and Bahçeşehir can be counted as good examples to these studies. The real estate market is a market where costs and market risks are too high. None of the investors doesn't want to finance it alone. Most of the investors want to sharerisks and financial requirements with a finance organization. These financial organizations behave as a sole financier, but sometimes behave as an entrepreneur as well. Real estate is a very popular investment tool in Turkey. The reasons underlying such a preference are:. Obsolescence of the social security systems.. High birth rate leading to superior growth in demand with respect to growth in supply.. High inflation rates implying search for hedging opportunities.. Illiteracy of the population in understanding the benefits of alternative financial tools.. Difficulty in estimating tax on capital gains related to real estate transactions.. Utilization of real estate as an investment pool for laundering illegal gains. Popularity of real estate as a collateral for securitizing credit facilities In general, real estate market is risky and less flexible market. Especially, this kind of the big investments have big risk and high profitability. Because of these, preliminary studies become more and more important. The real estate investigation consultancy companies took on the preliminary studies according to the increase in the comprehension and expectation, which became more difficult system. The preliminary studies, which are prepared by these companies, are the highest and best use, appraisal and feasibility studies. The feasibility analysis from the above-mentioned studies has been chosen as a subject for this thesis. The main reasons, which determine this subject to be chosen, are as follows:. In our country especially in our big cities, it's importance is increasing,. The real estate potential market is big enough,. It is necessary for bigger scale real estate projects,. The concept of investment analysis and phases of it from industrial engineering subjects are easily adaptable,. The academic researches are not enough on that subject in our country. The path, which is followed in this study, is to compile the greater scale real estate investments under two main parts as theoretical and practical parts. Economical feasibility analysis part for a real estate investment decision has been defined in the theoretical part. The details of main phases of this part and the comments for applications have been emphasized. Whereas in the application, the application of the phases which are described in theoretical part has been applied to the big tourism complex investment. It has been taken into consideration that the chosen example is reflecting the feasibility analyses process in a broader aspect as a tourism complex which offers rest, accommodation and entertainment, outdoor and indoor sport facilities and especially winter sports throughout the year The study consists of 6 chapters. In the first chapter, which is Introduction, subject, objective and method of study have been explained. In the second chapter, concepts and definitions related to the real estate investment decisions have been given with a purpose of proving a conceptual totality. Real estate investors are categorized in two ways: by the nature of their claims (debt or equity) and according to their degree of involvement in operations (passive or active). Active investors key distinguishing characteristic is that they make decisions that directly affect operating results. Passive investors make no operating decisions. Their decisions have little direct impact on the outcome of real estate operations. Only descriptions of the demand and supply have been given in this chapter, because they will be described in detail in chapter four. Real estate market nature has been defined in the third chapter. Firstly, information about the development of real estate market in Turkey has been given. Characteristics of real estate market have been defined and compared with characteristics of the other efficient consumer goods markets. The real estate markets are not an efficient market It is difficult to estimate the market's behavior in xvan exact way because of the weakness of product standardization and lots of time required for producing a new supply. Moreover, a classification of real estate markets in terms of qualifications of property has been examined. In the fourth chapter, description of feasibility is explained as: A real estate project is“feasible”when the real estate analyst determines that there is a reasonable likelihood of satisfying explicit objectives when a selected action is tested to fit a context of specific constraints and limited sources. The feasibility analyses has been described by the targets, evaluation, front-door and back-door approaches and the phases of the feasibility analyses process in real estate market The phases are as following: Description of the real estate, Market specifications and demand analyses, Competitive supply analysis and supply-demand equilibrium, Cost estimations, Financial costs estimations For rent or for sale decision Cash flow projections, Evaluations. In the fifth chapter, these phases of the feasibility analyses process have been applied to the big scale tourism complex investment. Main objective is being winter sport center and secondary objective is being 12 months sport and leisure center. To describe bigness of the investment some information should be given. This project is combined with 7 hotels, apart hotels and totally 1955 beds. Bigness of this project has given detailed and full-scale feasibility analysis opportunity. At the last part of this application, evaluation of the results and the sensitivity analysis have been done. A one way computerized deterministic sensitivity analysis has been XVIundertaken to test the feasibility outcomes with relation to the variables and to identify the variables to which the outcome is most sensitive too. Tornado diagrams have been used to communicate the results of the testing process and to assess key success factors of the development project In the sixth chapter, general evaluations about the real estate market and importance of the feasibility studies in this market have been explained. In general, at end of the real estate feasibility studies, cash flows in the future, discount rates, sales speed/occupancy rates should be evaluated as well after completing these evaluations, the investor will have some important information in order to be able to reach to the sensitive decision parameters. XVII

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