Comparative analysis of the crises of Argentina and Turkey in the 21st century
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- Tez No: 786646
- Danışmanlar: DR. SANDOR GYULA NAGY
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, Maliye, Economics, Finance
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2020
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: Corvinus University of Budapest
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 93
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
Perhaps the most remarkable two countries in terms of economic performance of recent years, were Argentina and Turkey but this was not the first economic crisis that they experienced in the 21st century. Both countries experienced a very severe crisis in 2001 at the same time. On the other hand, while the 2008-2009 economic crisis has devastated many countries, Argentina and Turkey received the impacts of the crisis relatively softer. Although these two countries are very far from each other and part of different blocks, their resemblance in economic conjunctures formed the background of this research. The primary purpose of this thesis is to reveal the factors behind the economic crises of Argentina and Turkey in the 21st century and to be able to identify the common patterns or tendencies in macroeconomic indicators before the crisis. In this way this thesis may assist the other developing countries which are in similar conjectures to consider which macroeconomic variance can be considered as a leading indicator for them. The thesis used descriptive statistics methodology based on secondary data collection, literature reviews and synthesis to reach its objectives. The literature review starts with theoretical description and classifications of the economic crises which helped us to classify the previous crises. Intensive literature review regarding to 2001 crisis in both countries was made as it was one of the most severe crises of the history of both countries. Chronology of the crises before 2001 and review of 2008-2009 crisis is also included the literature review. Finally, literature review covered the leading macroeconomic indicators of the crises. In this way, it was decided which macroeconomic data to use for comparison. Third and fourth chapters were a background research. In these chapters Argentina and Turkey were examined separately in terms of their economic and trade structures also formal and informal institutional backgrounds. Here, we learned the political economy and institutional transitions that have brought Argentina and Turkey to the point that they are today. Most importantly, we were able to extract the analysis of the economic crises of both countries in the previous century based on the cause and effect relation with a chronological order. In chapter 5, Available macroeconomic indicators were displayed with regional or equivalent benchmarks. As focus of thesis is 21st century, the time frame was limited from 2000 to 2019. Although the focus is economic and monetary indicators, statistics such as PISA results and Global Competitiveness records are also included, as human factor is very important in crisis management and economic development. Following that the comparative analysis of both countries for 2001, 2008-2009 and 2018-present time periods were conducted in the light of the data generated by theoretical, political economic, institutional background information and macroeconomic indicators that acquired in previous chapters. The study found that crises in Argentina and Turkey did not only happen at the same time in 21st century but in many times, they experienced economic crisis in the same period throughout 20th century too. The crises have turned into a vicious circle for reasons chronicled by political and economic mismanagement. The thesis showed that the most important reasons of the 2001 crisis were in common with both countries such as wrong exchange rate policies, growth based on external borrowing and fragility in banking sector. The effect of these on the real economy was seen in the same variances in both countries which are current account deficits, high inflation, and unemployment. Although Argentina and Turkey persuaded different paths after the 2001 crisis, prominent factors of the 2001 crisis that are external debt, current account deficits and exchange rate problems remained same for the current economic turmoil and this points a structural problem. Both countries fail to make balance between inflation, interest rates and exchange rates. Macroeconomic indicators showed us that unemployment and GINI index remained in high pattern in both countries throughout the century. Exchange rate and inflation showed rising tendencies before the current turmoil that started in 2018
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