Avrupa Para Birliği, Avrupa para biriminin hayata geçişi ve işleyişi, Türkiye üzerine etkileri
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 94819
- Danışmanlar: PROF. DR. NAZIM EKREN
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Bankacılık, Ekonomi, Banking, Economics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2000
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Marmara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Bankacılık Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 189
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
Economical Analysis of Monetary Union: Monetary union might be defined as establishing a system - depending on the realization of conditions - that constitutes of single currency and single Central Bank, after connecting the currencies of the countries, which have intensive economical relations, with fixed exchange rates. The important point here is the difference between concepts of monetary union and monetary zone. In the monetary zone, relations among the currencies have been established with fixed exchange rates. National currencies perform the classic functions of money. And the objective of monetary union is deploying single currency. There are two approaches in the economical analysis of monetary union: traditional approach and modern approach. In traditional approach, mainly fundamental macroeconomic balances have been examined. Besides, conditions such as factor mobility, availability of economy to foreign relations, domestic financial and monetary integrity are required. In modern approach, the advantages and costs of monetary union have been analysed. With monetary union, the conversion costs of currencies disappear. Monetary union removes speculative capital movements and accelerates financial integration. The inability of member countries in deploying independent monetary policy takes place among the costs of monetary union. There is not a consensus regarding the conditions that will bring advantages of monetary union to maximum level and disadvantages to minimum level. Since 1870's different money systems have been deployed. From 1870 to 1930 the golden age, 1930 - 1944 depression age, 1944 - 1973 Bretton Woods system were valid. 170The gold standard is a system that national currencies are defined with a unit of gold in certain quality and weight. This system was deployed successfully till the beginning of World War I. Due to World War I, the system interrupted and after the war system was back in force. However with the Great World Crisis in 1929 the system collapsed again. From 1930 to 1944 a complete disorganization was effective. With 1929 World Economic Crisis the demand for gold increased. The countries limited imports, encouraged national production and exports, and increased employment. Furthermore, they decreased the external values of their currencies and made devaluation. Such policies negatively affected the world trade. In order to straighten the economies ruined after World War II, Bretton Woods Conference was made. After this conference two big institutions were formed: International Money Fund (IMF) and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD - World Bank). The authority to regulate international money issues was given to IMF. For this reason the system is also called IMF System. IMF System depends on adjustable fixed exchange rate system. All members of IMF defined their currencies in dollar. And the value of US dollar was regulated through gold not by other currencies. In line with the system, national currencies will be able to fluctuate +1% or -1% against dollar. The central banks of the member countries will intervene to foreign exchange market and maintain the value of national currencies within these limits. The money that will be used for intervention is US dollar. The countries that experience external deficit in the system would first use their foreign exchange reserves. Exchange rate variations such as devaluation or revaluation were the last remedies to be deployed. 171Dollar has gained an international currency status with this system. And American Central Bank has become the central bank of world. Countries could save dollars; in other words the international liquidity would increase if only USA faces foreign deficit. Furthermore, dollar has taken a function as intervention currency. This significance of dollar in the system was also increasing the importance of American economy in the world. America has gained the privilege of financing its import through the dollar printed by central bank. Till the beginning of 1950's Japan and Western European countries had to transfer the most of their gold reserves to USA in order to straighten their collapsed economies. Hence a dollar scarcity was experienced. In the beginning of 1950's for the first time USA foreign payment balance sheet gave deficit. After this time, the foreign deficits of America became a continuous situation. In 1958 a dollar abundance issue occurred. During this period, dollar has gained an extraordinary value. However it was impossible to devaluate dollar due to its key money role. In 1960 an attack to dollar was experienced. In 1967 demand for gold increased due to Vietnam War. At that date Germany, for the first time let its currency to free fluctuation for a while. In this period USA demanded countries such as Germany and Japan to make devaluation; however these countries did not incline to this intention. Finally on December 1 8, 1971 dollar was devaluated as 8,6% against other currencies. The fluctuation limits of national currencies over dollar parity that were accepted at Bretton Woods were increased from +1% -1% to +2,5% -2,5%. The fluctuation limit of currencies other than dollar among each other was defined as 9%. After the dollar devaluation in 1971, it was not possible to provide stability among international money markets. In 1973, USA current account items experienced deficit and Japan and Western generated current account surplus. This situation caused speculative movements against dollar; but on behalf of mark and yen. On February 12th, 1973 dollar was devaluated second time in 11%. The value of 1 US 172dollar was decreased from 0,92 SDR to 0,828948 SDR. In spite of the second devaluation in dollar, it was not possible to prevent desertion from dollar, and the orientation towards gold and powerful currencies continued. The second devaluation of dollar staggered the trust for fixed exchange rate system and Bretton Woods System was abolished. In consequence of the breakdown of Bretton Woods System, IMF main contract was changed. After that date, fluctuating exchange rates - a system that requires minimum state intervention in world economy - and fixed exchange rates, in which national currencies depend on a foreign currency or a basket of currencies became valid. One of the reasons that caused collapse of Bretton Woods System is the absence of devaluation and revaluation authority for exchange rate adjustment policies that will enable a country having foreign deficit to provide foreign balances. Another important problem of the system was speculative capital trends. The main foundation of the idea of constituting a monetary union in Europe is the report prepared by French Economist Prof. Raymond Barre on February 12, 1969. In view of this report, on March 6th, 1970 a committee was established governed by Luxemburg Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Pierre Werner and Werner Report was prepared. In line with this report, step-by-step realization of economical and monetary integration till 1980 was anticipated. In the report, establishment of single currency throughout the community was also foreseen. However, the oil shock started in 1970s and the inflationist environment occurred as a consequence of this crisis inclined the Community to new researches. In line with these developments on March 13, 1979 European Monetary System (EMS) was accepted. T.C YÜKSEKÖ?RETBI kurulu DOKÜMANTASYON MERKEZİ 173The main target of EMS is realization of monetary stability throughout the community and constituting a stabilized European Monetary Region. In order to reach this target three mechanisms were established: European Currency Unit (ECU), exchange rate mechanism and credit mechanism. ECU is a basket currency constituted from European currencies. ECU was accepted both as a payment instrument and an account unit. ECU is a basket currency like SDR. However the different point from SDR is that in this basket the national currencies take place in fixed amounts. Before 1981, SDR was calculated as weighted average of 16 countries' currencies. After 1981, it was calculated as weighted average of the five most important countries' currencies. In SDR, weights were defined according to the importance of countries' in the exports of world. The shares of member countries in ECU are in proportion with their economic powers. ECU was established by transferring the 20% of gold reserves and 20% of brut dollar reserves of the member countries to European Monetary Agreement fund. England gave 20% of its reserves for the use of Fund voluntarily. ECU was used in two different fields: Official ECU and Private ECU. Official ECU was used among central banks and in budget and taxes. Private ECU was used in operations among the institutions and treasury bills and treasury bonds exported in ECU. ECU has taken an important place in the operations among the banks of member countries. Furthermore, banks deposited and gave credits in ECU. 174Member countries of ERM followed a free-fluctuation policy against US dollar for their currencies. To find the cost of one ECU in dollar, the values of the currencies of member countries in dollar should be summed. For this operation exchange rates of the member currencies against dollar are used. Exchange rate mechanism is one of the fundamentals of European Monetary System. This system is composed of two types of fluctuation margins. Bilateral central rates and spread of divergence. In bilateral central rates; each currency included in EMS has a return in ECU. With these exchange rates cross exchange rate is determined between every member country's currency and other countries currencies. In bilateral central rates, each of the ceiling and floor limits available for divergence is +/-2,5%. The fluctuation margin for English Sterling, Spanish Peseta and Portuguese Escudo is +/-6%. 75% of the fluctuation margin that is determined as +/-2,5%, in other words +/-1,7% of fluctuation limit is called Spread of Divergence. To calculate spread of divergence: SD= 0,75* Fluctuation margin* (100 - the weight of related country's in the basket)/100 The first significant crisis in ERM region occurred within 1992-93. The crisis happened in 92-93 also affected the foreign countries like Sweden and Finland. The high amounted capital flow in 1992 caused England, Italy and Spain to go beyond the fluctuation margin anticipated by ERM. In 1993, in order to leave French Franc within the 175variation band exchange rate band was expanded. It was increased from +/-2,5% to +/-15%. In the meeting of European Council, which was held in Madrid in 1995, it was determined that some countries will not be able to join euro system and some would like to join in the future. For this reason ERM2 was founded. There is an integration idea in Europe since the foundation of national states. The first economic union among European countries was formed between Belgium and Luxemburg in 1922. Following that date Holland joined this union and Benelux was established. In 1951 after World War II European Coal and Steel Community was formed. Jean Monet expressed the foundation idea of this union. The aim is to create a union in the production and use of these goods - which are used as war materials - in order prevent a new war. th On March 25, 1957 European Economic Community and European Atomic Energy Community were formed. The success of European Community took attention of the countries outside the union and they applied for entering the union. Establishing a domestic market in Europe came into force with Single Act in 1987. Through the report prepared by European Commission President Jacques Delors in the summit held on June 26-27, 1989 in Madrid, establishing an economic and monetary union decision was taken. A three-phased transition was anticipated. The first phase; started on July 1st, 1990 and ended on December 31st, 1993. The second phase; started on January 1st, 1994 and ended on December 31st, 1998. European Monetary Institution (EMI) was founded in this period. V * > V1, ? v --*?&?>? '?-., *: '.“'V > '< ”;..'.: «176Third phase; started on January 1st, 1999 and will end on January 1st, 2002 with the introduction of Euro as banknote. The criteria related with transition to third phase were determined in Maastricht Agreement as so: - Inflation average of the member countries realized in 12 months might be 1.5 point more than the inflation average of the three countries that have the lowest inflation rate. - State debts of the member countries will not exceed 60% of Gross Domestic Product. - Budget deficit should not be more than 3% of Gross Domestic Product. - Long-term interest rates might not be more than 2% of the interest rates of 3 member countries that have the best performance in the 12-month period. In the Dublin Summit held in 1996 after the Maastricht Summit legal status of Euro was determined. It was declared that ECU would be converted to euro in 1:1 rate after January 1st, 1999. In the summit held by EU State Presidents in Brussels on May 2-3, 1998, transition to last phase of economic and monetary union and deployment of single currency as of January 1st, 1999 with participation of 1 1 member countries were decided. Since January 1st, 1999 euro is being used as calculation unit. On January 1st, 2002 euro will be introduced to circulation and both euro and also national currencies will be maintained in circulation. In the meeting held on March 25th, 1998 it was determined that 11 member countries completed the necessary conditions for transition to euro on January 1st, 1999. These countries are 11 European Union member countries: Federal Germany, Italy, Luxemburg, Spain, Portugal, Austria, Ireland, Holland and Finland. Since January 1st, 1999 countries joining to EMU were defined as Insiders. The countries that could not complete adhesion conditions and the countries that did not join by their own wills are defined as Outsiders. 177The fluctuation intervals of these countries involved in ERM2 are determined as +/- 15%. Euro will be in the market as banknote in 5, 10, 20, 200 and 500; coins as 1,2, 5, 10, 20 and 50 cent, 1 and 2 euro.l Euro has been regulated in such equity 1 Euro = 100 cent. EMI was founded in Frankfurt on June 1st, 1994. The roles of EMI are to strengthen the currency policy coordination among EU member countries and make the necessary preparations for the third phase of EMU. On June 1st, 1998 EMI transferred its roles to ECB and the institution was liquidated. ECB started working officially as of July 1st, 1998. European Central Bank (ECB) System constitutes of National Central Banks (NCBs) of the countries adopted euro and NCBs of the countries that did not adopt euro in third phase. The central banks of the countries adopted Euro are as follows: Bangue Nationale de Belgique, Deutsche Bundesbank, Banco de Espana, Banque de France, Central Bank of Ireland, Banca d'ltalia, Bangue Centrale du Luxembourg, De Nederlandsche Bank, Oesterreichische Nationalbank, Banco de Portugal, Suomen Pankki Finlands Bank. The central banks of the countries that did not adopt Euro are as follows: Danmarks Nationalbank, Sveriges Riksbank, Bank of England, and Bank of Greece. There are three bodies of ECB: Management council, execution assembly and general council. Management council constitutes of Presidents of NCBs of member countries and members of the execution council of ECB. The role of the council is to determine the monetary policy. This is the most important and highest decision making body of the system. Execution assembly constitutes of a president, vice president and four members selected by prime ministers or state presidents of countries that are members of EMU. General council constitutes :, '.'V 178of ECB president, vice president and four members. The role of this council is to coordinate the monetary policy among the countries that are members of EMU and are not member of EMU. General council meetings are made quarterly during the third phase of EMU on the same day with management council meeting. The president and vice president are assigned for 8 years and might not be selected for the same position again. ESCB is an independent system. None of the decision-making bodies receive instructions from the institutions outside the system. EU or any member of it might not intervene to decision-making bodies of ECB in no way. Monetary policy strategy of euro region is determined by ECB. However, implementation is made by national central banks. The main target of ECB is providing price stability. In line with this target, price stability is defined as to be below 2% yearly in euro base according to harmonized consumer price index (HCPI) in mid term. In the framework of monetary policy strategy, M3 money supply that shows the monetary weight in general means as a reference value for monetary expansion. M3 consists of the currency in circulation, liabilities of the financial institutions in euro region and deposits of some institutions included in central government. In the implementation of monetary policy monetary policy instruments such as open market operations, credit facilities and reserve requirements are used. IT was aimed that ECB will benefit mostly from open market operations (OPO). Realization of five different OPO is anticipated: direct purchases, direct sales, purchase with condition of resale (repo), sale with condition of repurchase (reverse repo), and exporting promising bond. Other than its monetary policy there are two other policies of ECB: reserve policy and 179foreign exchange policy. ECB did not determine any exchange rate target against Japanese yen. The foreign exchange reserves of ECB are composed of its gold (15%) and foreign exchange (85%) entities. The foreign exchange rate policy of ECB is based on Bundesbank model. In other words it was adopted that ECB will rarely intervene to markets. On January 1st, 1999 a new payment system that will be implemented for all payments was established. TARGET is the fund transfer system among banks involved in ECB and effective only for the operations made in euro. TARGET is composed of RTGS of 15 countries and RTGS system of ECB. In the TARGET system, the time that passes from sender institution to receiver institution is at most 30 minutes. In order to be considered as an international reserve currency, euro should perform the saving function - one of the three functions - of money. At the present, dollar has the status of international reserve currency. USA is more advantageous than euro region with regard to liquidity and depth of financial markets. The shares of foreign exchanges in the world reserves are as follows: nearly 60% US dollar, 1 5% DM and 8% Japanese yen. Euro will replace DM and yen. The condition for euro to become a reserve currency will play an important role in the size of operation costs related to this currency. Currently, it is impossible to express that euro might be an international reserve currency. ECB made its first intervention to foreign exchange markets on June 18th, 1999. ECB is deploying tight monetary policy since November.1999. The Effects of Euro On European Union: The most significant effects of euro will be 180realized on finance sector. It will create double-sided effects especially for banks. They will be affected both for their own jobs and also for their customers. Traditional banking structure within the European banking system will disappear. Mergers among the existing banks and tendency towards professional banking may be experienced. Common currency eliminates the risk of exchange rate. With single currency, conversion costs of currencies will disappear. Elimination of the costs that occur during exchanging currency will increase the domestic market depth. Deploying single currency in banks will ease the management of funds. Monetary policy will be executed by ECB, and governments of member countries will manage budget and finance policies. In the last 15 years security market has developed rapidly in Europe. By eliminating the risk of exchange rate, fixed income will be dependent on credit risk, liquidity, coupon payments, tax advantages and operation facilities. Private sector bonds will develop rapidly. Existing benchmark portfolios will replace with integrated portfolios. Since compliance with the Maastricht criteria will decrease public sector borrowing, public bonds market will decrease. Risk of exchange rate and interest will disappear among member countries. Thus, European market will have more homogenous and centralized currency and capital markets. EUROBOR is constituted instead of FIBOR, PIBOR. Deploying a single currency will also eliminate the risk of foreign exchange. As a consequence of this situation, offshore investments and operations among stock exchanges will 181increase significantly. The monetary policy in the region is executed by ECB. Therefore, it is not possible for member countries to deploy monetary policy as an instrument of economy policy. With Euro, devaluation that is made by countries in order to gain competitive power disappeared, prices became transparent and pricing comparison within the union became possible. Euro, eliminated fluctuations of interest rates and foreign exchange rates among member countries. Thus it facilitated taking trade and investment decisions. The Effects of Euro on Turkey: As a consequence of many reasons, Turkey will be affected much more than other third countries. One of the main reasons of this situation is, the intensity of commercial relations of Turkey with Europe. Nearly 43% of the import and 39% of the export of Turkey are made with euro region countries. In addition to this, we have an intense relation with European Union in terms of foreign capital, tourism and labour foreign exchanges.. One of the most important effects of euro is that our central bank will consider euro while determining its foreign exchange rate policy. In the long term when considered in view of Turkey, the most important point is the effect of euro on Turkey's long-term debts. If we examine the mid- and long-term debt distribution of Turkey, we will see that American dollar and Japanese yen have a high proportion in the whole. The general expectation to realize with euro is the change of this distribution. The reason of this expectation might be explained as so: Since operation and borrowing costs will decrease with euro, Turkey and similar countries will be able to find debt in European financial market reasonably and easily. 182Consequently, when considering the effects of euro on finance sector, its effects on macroeconomics such as effects on short and mid-term debts, and effects on reserve are mentioned. The import of Turkey to European Union has increased since 1980's. If we examine the foreign exchange composition of Turkey's foreign trade, we will notice that 56% of payments made in foreign trade and 57.2% of total foreign trade incomes are realized in dollar. When we consider the fact that USA's share in Turkey's total foreign trade is 8%, it comes out that Turkey deals in with small countries in EU and other countries, which are not member of EU, in US dollar. The currencies of countries in Euro region have a nearly 35% weight in Turkey's foreign trade. A significant portion of our trade with EU is realized in DM. With the introduction of euro into circulation, it is expected that the trade made with relatively smaller European countries in dollar will be realized in euro. As a result of this, the weight of euro in our foreign trade will increase. Due to the constant value loss of euro against dollar during 2000, ECB interfered to this situation. The ineffectiveness of euro is seriously important for Turkey's foreign trade and foreign debt service. The ineffectiveness of euro is decreasing the export incomes of Turkey. DM is being used for value preserving in our country. It is possible that after introduction into circulation, euro will replace DM. However, the continuation of ineffective situation of euro against dollar and uncertainty regarding the adoption of euro in international markets prevents us from talking definitely. DM is being used widely as cash in Turkey. A cost that will emerge from introduction of euro into circulation and withdrawal of DM from market is inevitable. These costs are holding, saving, clearing and similar costs. 183In this situation, the cost of both the banks and also the finance institutions will increase. With the operation of euro in the market, income-providing activities such as buying and selling operations, foreign exchange transfers will disappear. After its adoption, euro has started to be used in reports such as central bank reports, account exchange rate risk reports and all computing programs related to foreign exchanges. Foreign exchange rate basket is constituted of 1 US dollar and 0,77 euro. Before mentioning the effects of euro on banking sector, 1 want to compare Turkish Banking sector with European banking sector. If we examine the world's top 1000 bank ranking we will see such a distribution as of 31.12.1998: 264 banks from EU11 countries, 49 banks from Sweden, Denmark, England and Greece that are member of EU15, 86 banks from Germany and 9 banks from Turkey. When we consider commercial banks, as of the end of 1997 France takes the first place with its assets size of 1,9 trillion dollar. As of the same year, total assets size that the commercial banks in Turkey constitute is 89,6 billion dollars. And as of 31.12.1998 this value reached 1 12,2 billion dollars. As of 31,12,1997, it is noticed that the account value of Turkish banking sector is slightly bigger than Greece and nearly at the same level with Finland. However, when considered for the number of banks, Turkish Banking sector has more banks compared to both countries. Turkish banking sector has a deposit weighted operating structure compared to European banking sector. As of September 30, 1998, the share of dollar in the total assets and liabilities of ^“f'r J- 184ON ON ON 9 WD in -a e o CO 185Turkish banking sector is 62,1% and 61,2%, respectively. The share of DM in total assets and liabilities of Turkish banking sector is 28,7% and 29,1%, respectively. The shares of other foreign exchanges in total assets and liabilities of Turkish banking sector are 9,2% and 9,8%, respectively. As of June 30, 1999 these values changed as following: The share of dollar in the total assets and liabilities of Turkish banking sector is 64,4% and 66,5%, respectively. The share of DM in the total assets and liabilities of Turkish banking sector is 20,3% and 22,3%, respectively. The share of euro in the total assets and liabilities of Turkish banking sector is 2,9% and 1,3%, respectively. With euro, in addition our public institutions, banks and other financial institutions that have strong financial situation and operate in finance sector will have the opportunity to provide resource from European markets - which became deeper and more liquid - in more suitable conditions. It is noticed that as of June 30, 1999, euro could not reach the expected value within the assets and liabilities of Turkish banking sector. Now, with euro there are three basic currencies to be managed for Turkey: Dollar, yen and euro. Since 1999, borrowings in euro have started. Argentine and Brazil have also borrowed intensively in euro market. The macroeconomic policies that will be deployed in euro area will affect other countries due to the size of region. Greece was not able to join euro since the beginning due to its incompliance with Maastricht criteria. Just like Greece, Sweden could not join currency union as a result of its deficiency to comply with Maastricht criteria. Euro region is making nearly more than half of its foreign trade among its member countries. Due to the significant position of euro region in the foreign trade of Denmark, 186' ';;*.'?' ??”:>?"Greece, Sweden and England - countries that are member of European Union, but not monetary union - these countries should improve their relations with euro. Norway and Switzerland are members of neither European Union nor Monetary Union. However, due to both geographical and economical proximity they will be affected directly from euro. England is among the leading members of European Union with Germany and France. However, in spite of its compliance with Maastricht criteria England did not join to monetary union. At the present, euro has an utmost significance also for the Middle and Eastern European countries that are not member of European Union but locate in the continent. Hungary, The Republic of Czech and Poland are the countries to join European Union in the first phase. The main reason of integration with Middle and Eastern European countries is political. Stabilizing the region economically and politically by including these countries into market economy is the fundamental idea of this policy. Union is both warning these countries to comply with the Maastricht criteria and also supporting them in technical level. Especially the close relation of these countries with Germany is increasing the importance of euro for them. The currencies of nearly all of these counties depend on DM. Therefore, it is expected that these countries will adopt euro more easily. The main partner of the Latin American countries in trade is United States of America. However, in the last twenty years the trade between Latin American countries and European Union increasingly continued. With euro, the opportunity of using invoice in euro in the trade with Latin American countries will increase. The most important characteristics of these countries are: they are subject to dollarization at a great extent and other than their national currencies dollar is also in circulation. For this reason, dollar will be used both as an instrument and also a reserve currency in this region for a long time. 187There are official contacts such as association agreement or economical cooperation agreement. The official relations of Turkey with the following countries are mentioned respectively: with EU customs union; with Cyprus and Malta association agreement; with Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia (Maghreb countries), Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria (Mashreq countries) cooperation agreement. Due to both these official contacts and also the historical and geographical contacts euro region has turned out to be the leading commercial and financial partner for Mediterranean countries. 188
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