Türk limanlarında 2018 sonrasında ımo karbonsuzlaştırma düzenleyici çerçevesinin uygulanmasının ardından gemi büyüklüğü dağılımının zamansal analizi
Temporal analysis of ship size distribution in turkish ports after the implementation of imo decarbonisation regulatory framework after 2018
- Tez No: 955215
- Danışmanlar: DR. ÖĞR. ÜYESİ FIRAT BOLAT
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Deniz Bilimleri, Marine Science
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2025
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Denizcilik Çalışmaları Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Denizcilik Çalışmaları Bilim Dalı
- Sayfa Sayısı: 87
Özet
Bu tez, Uluslararası Denizcilik Örgütü (IMO) tarafından 2018'den sonra uygulamaya konulan karbonsuzlaştırma düzenleme çerçevesinin ardından, Türk limanlarında gemi boyutlarının dağılımının zaman içinde nasıl değiştiğini incelemektedir. Uluslararası deniz taşımacılığı sektörü, sera gazı emisyonlarını azaltmak için belirgin bir baskı altında bulunmaktadır. Uluslararası düzenleyici kurumlar ve ulusal hükümetler, deniz taşımacılığı sektörünü giderek karbondan daha fazla arındırmaya yönlendirmektedir. Bu düzenlemeler, Türkiye'nin liman bölgelerine uğrayan gemileri etkileyen karmaşık bir kural, düzenleme, hedef ve teşvikler ağı oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, Zaman serisi analiz teknikleri, önemli düzenleyici önlemlerin öncesinde ve sonrasında gemilerin boyutlarındaki dağılım değişikliklerini incelemek için kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Ulaştırma ve Altyapı Bakanlığı Denizcilik Genel Müdürlüğü tarafından aylık olarak sağlanan gemi boyutu istatistikleri kullanılmıştır. Bu istatistikler 2011 ile 2025 yıllarını kapsamaktadır. Gemilerden kaynaklanan sera gazı emisyonlarını azaltmaya yönelik ilk strateji 2018 yılında IMO tarafından geliştirilmiştir. Çalışmada, mevsimsel değişimlerin ve piyasa kaynaklı değişikliklerin gemi boyutu dağılımındaki etkilerini ortadan kaldırmak için zaman serisi ayrıştırması kullanılarak kırılma noktası analizi ve müdahale analizi ana metodolojiler olarak uygulanmıştır. Önemli düzenlemelerin uygulanmasıyla bağlantılı olarak meydana gelen önemli yapı değişiklik noktalarını belirlemek için Chow testi ve Bai-Perron testi olmak üzere iki ilgili test kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışma, uluslararası deniz taşımacılığının karbonsuzlaştırılmasına ilişkin artan anlayışa katkıda bulunmaktadır. Düzenleyici değişikliklerden yararlanarak, bu tür düzenleyici değişikliklerin uluslararası deniz taşımacılığı filosunda nasıl bir değişime yol açabileceğini bölgesel ölçekte ayrıntılı bir şekilde ortaya koymaktadır. Sonuçlar, liman altyapısı planlaması, düzenleyici politika değerlendirmesi ve deniz taşımacılığı sektöründe uyum stratejisi oluşturma ile ilgilenenler için önemli içgörüler içermektedir. Bu çerçeve, benzer bir düzenleyici değişiklikten geçen ve benzer bir veri setine sahip olan diğer denizcilik alanlarında da uygulanabilir. Genel olarak, bu çalışmada izlenen analitik yaklaşım, gelecekteki çalışmalar için bir prototip olarak görülebilir.
Özet (Çeviri)
In 2018, the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) announced a strategic framework with global carbon reduction targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from maritime transport. Within the scope of these regulations, ships are encouraged to increase their energy efficiency, reduce their carbon footprint and reduce their environmental impact. This regulatory structure of IMO has had direct impacts on ship management, port management and the transport chain. This thesis examines how the ship size distribution in Turkish ports has changed over time following the decarbonisation regulatory framework introduced by IMO after 2018. The international maritime transport sector is under significant pressure to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. International regulatory bodies and national governments are increasingly directing the maritime transport sector to become more decarbonised. These regulations constitute a complex web of rules, regulations, targets and incentives affecting vessels calling at Turkish ports. The main objective of this study is to analyse the impact of the decarbonisation policies introduced by the IMO in 2018 on the number and total tonnage of commercial vessels calling at Turkish ports. In this context, a time series analysis has been performed on international commercial vessel movements to Turkish ports based on the data for the period between 2011 and 2024 (including both years). The data used in the analysis are obtained from official statistical reports published by the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure, General Directorate of Maritime Affairs. The data set contains information on the number of ships and the number of tons (GT) and does not include any limiting criteria regarding the flag state of the ships. In this respect, the analysis has been carried out with a more general and flag-independent approach, thus providing a holistic assessment of all international commercial activities towards Turkish ports. In this study, statistical data on international commercial vessels operating in the port areas under the administrative jurisdiction of Aliağa, Ambarlı, Antalya, Bandırma, Bodrum, Ceyhan, Çanakkale, Gemlik, İskenderun, İstanbul, İzmir, Karadeniz Ereğli, Kocaeli, Marmaris, Mersin, Samsun, Tekirdağ, Trabzon, Tuzla, Yalova and Zonguldak Regional Port Authorities, which cover the major maritime trade centres of Turkey, are used. The data in question include the distribution of the ships calling at the ports in terms of the number and the grstonage, and provide an important data set in terms of analysing the change in Turkey's maritime transport structure over time. The scope of the study analyses the impact of IMO's post-2018 regulations, while also assessing Turkey's position in the maritime sector. In particular, the pressure of performance-based measures such as Energy Efficiency Existing Ship Index (EEXI) and Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) on the ship fleet has led ship owners and operators to move towards larger, more efficient and environmentally compatible ships. Whether this situation is observed in Turkish ports is the main problematic of the research. Time series analysis is a method used to statistically examine the behavioural pattern of data in order to understand how the data to be used in the analysis change over time. This method predicts future data by analysing past data and supports decision-making by revealing the trends and break points of the data. At this point, in cases where classical time series models are not sufficient, advanced analysis techniques including multiple break points are needed. This method increases the consistency of the model by shedding light on the changing dynamics of the series in different periods and provides more realistic results to decision makers. Especially in studies examining the impact of regulatory changes, this method is preferred due to its analytical accuracy and structural sensitivity. In this study, time series analysis techniques are used to examine the changes in the distribution of vessel size before and after major regulatory measures. The data covering the years 2011-2017 represent the pre-regulation period, while the data covering the years 2018-2024 represent the changes and developments in the post-regulation period. The raw data prepared for the analysis has been processed based on the IMO's regulations enacted in 2018, 2020 and 2023. These years are considered as breakpoints where regulatory interventions become evident and are treated as turning points in the analysis process. The first strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from ships was developed by IMO in 2018. In the study, breakpoint analysis and intervention analysis were applied as the main methodologies, using time series decomposition to eliminate the effects of seasonal variations and market-driven changes in the ship size distribution. Two related tests, the Chow test and the Bai-Perron test, were used to identify the points of significant structural change associated with the implementation of important regulations. In this study, the time evolution of the vessel traffic and vessel size distribution in Turkish ports following these regulations is analysed. In this thesis, the number of ships calling at the ports and their grostonilatos (GT) in the official records of the regional port authorities in Turkey are used as the basic data. This data set includes only the number and tonnage of ships and does not include technical and operational parameters such as fuel consumption levels, engine type, ship age, ship class or type. Therefore, detailed emission data that would allow the direct calculation of the carbon emission levels of the ships could not be accessed. This situation necessitated the study to make an indirect assessment based on ship sizes and the change in the fleet structure calling at ports instead of carbon emission analysis. Thus, the impact of IMO's decarbonisation policies is revealed through structural changes in fleet dynamics rather than direct emission measurements. According to the results, the port call rate of larger tonnage vessels has increased after 2018. This shows that ship operators have started to prefer fewer but larger and more efficient vessels in order to reduce carbon emissions per vessel. On the other hand, the number of port calls of smaller and older vessels has decreased. This development reveals the potential of IMO regulations to reshape the fleet structure. One of the important findings of the study is the question of whether port infrastructures are adequately adapting to this change. Physical infrastructure, handling capacity and environmental management systems need to be strengthened in order for larger vessels to call at ports regularly. In this context, it has been determined that some large ports in Turkey have adapted to this change rapidly, but small and medium-sized ports have been slower in the transformation process. The thesis also addresses not only the technical but also the economic and operational impacts of IMO regulations. It has been observed that the shift towards large ships has led to changes in port tariffs, waiting times and logistics costs. These changes are thought to affect the decision-making processes of transport and logistics companies operating in the sector. Overall, the study reveals that the post-2018 IMO regulations have led to a significant transformation in the size profiles of ships calling at Turkish ports. This analysis, supported by time series data, both identifies the current situation and contributes to forecasting future trends. It is concluded that Turkish ports should be supported by infrastructure investments, digitalisation efforts and environmental policies in line with sustainable maritime transport targets. This study is an important example to show the effects of the decarbonisation process initiated by IMO at the global level on local port systems. At the same time, it provides concrete recommendations to port managers and decision makers in terms of data-based policy making. It is envisaged to conduct more comprehensive analyses by taking into account the variables not included with additional data (fuel consumption, CII rating, port infrastructure indicators). Thus, more concrete recommendations can be developed between sustainable shipping and port-ecosystem governance. This study contributes to the growing understanding of the decarbonisation of international maritime transport. Drawing on regulatory changes, it provides a detailed regional-scale account of how such regulatory changes could lead to a shift in the international shipping fleet. The results have implications for port infrastructure planning, regulatory policy assessment.
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