Çok uluslu şirketler teorileri çerçevesinde doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının incelenerek Türkiye açısından değerlendirilmesi
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- Tez No: 97134
- Danışmanlar: Y.DOÇ.DR. SUNA OKSAY
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Bankacılık, İşletme, Banking, Business Administration
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2000
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Marmara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Bankacılık Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 209
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
Definition An important part of international capital movement takes a different form, that of direct foreign investment. By direct foreign investment we mean international capital flows in which a firm in one country creates or expands a subsidiary in another. These flows can be done by establishing their institutions in another country or by buying some production companies. In that way, multinational companies can be defined as the organisations which their activity is not only in their country but also other countries, under the supervision of an central organisation. There is a direct an close relation between Direct Foreign Capital Investments and multinational companies. Although in can be think that a person can set up a production establishment in another country or can buy one, in truth, this investment is done by multinational companies. The distinctive feature of direct foreign investment is that it involves not only a transfer of resources but also the acquisition of control. That is, the subsidiary does not simply have a financial obligation to the parent company; it is part of the same organisational structure. In 1970s and 1980s direct foreign investments were especially between developed countries which export capital but, by 1990s these investments gone towards developing countries in an increasing ratio. One of the main reasons of this investment shift from developed countries to developing countries is a dept crisis. In the following years the direct capital investment towards developing countries was encouraged and as a result of this encouragement, investment share of developing countries in the middle of 90s increased to 40 percent compering with the level of the beginning of 1990s which was 20 percent. With 1 billion dollar volume of direct foreign investment, Turkey has an important place among developing countries. However, she couldn't increased her level and by moving back, she became 52nd country in terms of volume of direct foreign investment.As a summary, it can be said that the main purpose of this thesis is to understand the condition of direct foreign investments, to research some solutions for improving it, and to define and discuss the needed legal and institutional arrangements. Current Situation Developing countries have to enhance their export power, create more employment possibilities and strengthen technological development, in order to keep their development. Liberalization and globalization of world economy makes pressure on the countries to achieve their goals. The most important factor in development of developing countries is their foreign financing. Foreign financing sources of developing countries can be classified as traditional and alternative foreign financings. While traditional foreign financings comprises intergovernmental financings and international commercial bank credits, alternative financings include direct foreign investments and international portfolio investments and other private sourced financings. Foreign capital movements in Turkey can be divided into three periods: pre-1980, 1980-1990, and post-1990. Prior to 1980, little foreign investment came to Turkey. In the 25 years from 1954 to 1980, the total value of the small number of investments made in the automotive, pharmaceutical, foodstuffs and petroleum sectors came to 228 million dollars. Almost all of this investment was made by three oil companies, two automobile companies, five bus-and-truck companies, eight pharmaceutical companies, three tire companies, three public partnerships and no more than fifteen foodstuffs, chemical, electrical appliances and machinery firms. Together with the liberalization that followed the 24 January economic package in 1980, investment gradually started to come into the country. The acceleration in this development coincided with the second half of the eighties. In 1987 for the first time the figure exceeded 200 million dollars in a singleyear, and later in 1988 and 1989 this figure was doubled, finally reaching 1 billion dollars annually at the end of 1990. Since 1990, however, annual foreign investments have not exceeded this figure. Until 1993, new investments coming to Turkey for the first time accounted for close to half of total foreign investments, which had accelerated in the second half of the eighties to reach the one billion dollar level in 1990. Following the 1994 economic crisis, however, the ratio of new investments to the total fell sharply, remaining at between 5% and 10% of the total since 1995. This annual 5-10% represents an around 50 to 100 million dollars of investments a year. Not only is this new investment figure extremely insignificant for a country like Turkey, but the fact that 50-100 million dollars worth of such investment is made by some 300-400 firms further reduces the significance of the figure. Almost all of these are very small investments by individually owned companies. During the course of 1990's, amount of international financings towards developing countries rapidly increased, and the financing underwent structural change. The most important feature of 1990's is the rapid increase in the private capital flow to developing countries and stagnation in formal development financings. Therefore, proportion of formal development financings in total international financings decreased and fell to 10.5 percent in 1996 while it was 56.5 percent in 1990. One of the important developments regarding direct foreign investments is that rapid developments and changes experienced with regard to the place of investment for foreign investors. Relative costs continue to play important role in selection of place for international investors that are effected from economic and political factors as domestic investors, however importance of certain factors such as cheap workmanship is decreased gradually. Proportion of workmanship takes a lower rate such as 10-15 percent.Various speculations have been made as to the amount of investment Turkey should attract in a year, but one could say that a minimum figure of 25- 30 billion dollars would be appropriate. In the U.S. government's“Ten Large Developing Markets”strategy developed for the 2000s, it is envisaged that the ten most important developing countries will reach the level of Europe or of Japan in their foreign economic relations with the U.S. in the year 2000, and by the year 2010 these ten countries' share will exceed the total volume of Europe and Japan combined. Among these countries, Turkey ranks second only to China. Developments since 1994 when the strategy was developed show that the actual levels attained may even exceed those forecast in the strategy. Turkey is the only country failing to show the development envisaged in the ten large developing markets strategy. According to Jeffrey Garten, former U.S. Undersecretary of Commerce for Foreign Trade and architect of the strategy, Turkey should be behind China, which attracted 50 billion dollars of investment in 1998, and ahead of Brazil, which attracted 20 billion dollars of investment in the same year. In other words, Turkey should be pulling in between 30 and 50 billion dollars of foreign investment annually. The figures given above for foreign investment coming into Turkey are at a level that does not even begin to compare with this. The figures envisaged as a potential for Turkey are not exaggerated. The fact that China attracted 50, Brazil 28, and Poland 10 billion dollars of investment in 1998 shows that if the right climate were created Turkey should easily exceed the figures cited. When Turkey passed the one billion dollar mark for the first time in 1990, she passed up all these countries, even China, in terms of per capita foreign investment. This alone is sufficient proof that Turkey could easily capture the same level again today. Despite this, fast increase in the cost of top managers in developed countries causes international investors to prefer developing countries that have good educated manpower. Multinational countries has been directed towards the countries having educated and highly skilled labor force in an environmentwhere global competition is rapidly increased and service quality comes forward in product development. Direct foreign investments and multinational companies plays important role for the countries in reaching their goals. Furthermore, aims of multinational companies and aims of host countries are different from each other. While multinational companies try to increase their power of competition, host countries observe their national interests. Such companies have to change their relations with suppliers, buyers and competitors in order to manage technologic developments better. In order to realize this, multinational companies believe that they must have close ties with science and technology. Such companies make investments in new regions encouraging foreign investments in order to expand technology, competition and labor force skills to different countries. Direct Foreign Investments In The World The direction of foreign investments has changed as a result of political changes in today's world. According to 1999 World Investment Report of United Nations Commerce and Development Conference (UNCTAD) direct foreign investment in the world was $464 billions in 1997. This was $644 billions in 1998. Financial crisis occurred in Asia and Russia in 1998 could not prevent this increase. In 1998, 55% of direct foreign investment in developing countries was concentrated on only 5 countries. Least developed 48 countries remained below 1%. Thus, the gap between developing countries regarding foreign investment inflows increased further. It is observed that the investments are focused in developed countries. Foreign investments entered into these countries was $460 billion in 1998 and this represent 71.5% of overall investments in the world.The countries mostly attracted investments in 1998 are USA, United Kingdom, China, Netherlands, Brazil, France, Belgium- Luxembourg, Germany, Sweden and Canada respectively. USA is the first among developed countries and world with $193 billions. If we make an approximate evaluation of 10 years; while share of direct foreign investments in developed countries was 37.5 and 35.4% in manufacturing industry and 42.9 and 53% in service industry between 1998 and 1997 respectively, it was 66.8 and 50.1% in manufacturing industry and 25 and 41.3% in service industry for developing countries. Foreign investments in members of European Union was at the level of 35.7% of global investments, and direct foreign investments in only in USA was 30% of global investments. Member countries of European Union except Italy, Portugal and Greece was among first 20 countries in 1998 with regard to foreign investment entry. Greece was behind Turkey in ranking and ranked 58 after 29% decrease in foreign investment entry compare to 1997. Direct Foreign Investments In Turkey Turkey that have been trying to cover its necessary capital accumulation by foreign borrowing and foreign capital entry due to insufficient domestic sources had no significant increases until 1980, however foreign capital permissions increased to $337 millions in 1981 from $97 of 1980 and achieved a big jump. Second jump realized in 1986 following amendment in legislation and foreign capital permissions that accounted for $364 in 1986 increased $655 millions in 1987. Upon amendment of legislation in 1992, $2billons limit was exceeded for the first time and the figure come to the limit of $ 3 billions in 1995. Amount of average permissions given was $1.7 billions between 1997-1999 "and total Yamount of permission given to foreign investments reached to $25.6 billions as of end of 1999. Foreign direct investment amount actively entered into Turkey in 1980 was $35 millions and this figure reached to $1 billion in 1990. Annual foreign capital entered in Turkey in 1990's was at an average of $1 billions annually. From total 4950 foreign capital companies active in Turkey as of end of 1999, total capital of which is TL 823.2 trillions; 46.1% is engaged in manufacturing industry, 52.5% in service industry, 0.3% in agriculture and 1% in mining industry. Problems The biggest factor that prevents to reach the target for foreign investments is political and economic instability. Not accepting inflation accounting method despite inflation is a preventive factor for the foreign investors. Not fully applying the economic decisions made, changing them often prevents foreign investors to see in front of them and to make long term plans. Insufficient privatization prevented entry of foreign investments. Lameness in legal and justice mechanism and absence of specialization courts are dissuasive factors for foreign investors. Additionally, bureaucratic transactions that foreign investors face in application that also tends to increase day by day brings negative effects on foreign investment. Like the U.S., England has also included Turkey in the category of the ten most important countries and has gone into action to develop economic relations with Turkey. This and similar overtures, while not strategic in nature, are also observed in the approaches of several other countries as a general policy. It is well known that Turkey's existing economic and political instability lie at the root of her failure to attract the desired level of foreign investmentdespite her potential. In Turkey, which has one of the high rates of inflation in the world, large budget deficits, high interest rates due to the public sector's large borrowing need, the failure to make any headway in privatization and similar factors all fuel economic instability. In addition to this, due to inadequate protection of intellectual property rights, in particular patents and trademarks, obstacles outside of customs, price controls, and delays in the dispensation of justice due to deficiencies in the justice system, and similar factors all make the investment climate less attractive. For the investor, however, political stability takes precedence even over economic stability. Turkey has somehow been unable to create a stable political climate ever since the economic crisis experienced in 1994. In 1995 following the 5-6 month political upheaval caused by the resignation of Prime Minister Tansu Çiller in September, the country was first without a government for ten months and then had the unfortunate experience of the RefahYol administration. And in 1997, from the formation of the ANAP-DSP coalition on, there was talk of early elections. This continued without interruption up to the period of the 57th government. Throughout this period, which was extremely unstable politically, even investors determined to invest in Turkey continually postponed their decisions to invest. And they are still continuing to put off those decisions today. Above everything else, Turkey is one of the 10-15 most important markets in the world. In several recent studies, estimates of the size of the Turkish economy have been in the neighborhood of 500 billion dollars. When we taken into account the per capita income estimate of 10,000-1 1,000 dollars given by the former Chairman of the State Institute of Standards, we are confronted with an economic magnitude of around 700 billion dollars. As for the official size of the Turkish economy, it is 210 billion dollars if GNP is taken into account. Consequently, there iş an unofficial economy in Turkey at least the size of GNP. This dual structure of the Turkish economy is basically what makes the country a major market. This reality is corroborated not only by studies undertaken in Turkey or the claims of officials but also in terms of purchasing power parity, forexample, in the estimates of the OECD. On the basis of official figures, the OECD estimates per capita purchasing power parity in Turkey to be at least 6500 dollars. According to estimates made by some foreign experts for Turkey's western region, where at least 25-30 million of her people live, the average purchasing power parity of residents of this region is around 15,000 dollars. These figures explain why Turkey is regarded as such an attractive market. The estimates cited do not include the neighboring markets, which are developing daily and further enhance Turkey's attractiveness to foreigners, in particular the market opportunities created by relations with the Turkic Republics and the countries of the Black Sea. Turkey's relations with these countries, which were slightly exaggerated at the beginning of the 1990s, are extremely well developed today. Many foreign investors with investments in Turkey are using Turkey as their headquarters for activities in those countries, which is an indicator of the advantage Turkey offers in terms of these countries. Besides her great market opportunities, Turkey's human resources are acknowledged to be comparable in quality with their counterparts in the developed nations. This together with good infrastructural possibilities, Turkey's participation in almost all existing multilateral agreements, and her signature on investment protection and prevention of double taxation agreements with around six countries constitute the other side of the Turkish coin. Underlying these realities is the fact that investors who made their investments in Turkey in more stable periods are continually expanding those investments and have chosen Turkey as a regional headquarters for their activities over a broad area reaching from Eastern Europe and across the Black Sea countries to Central Asia. Total transfers of foreign investment profits since 1954 are around 1.5 billion dollars. Profits are generally reinvested.General Evaluation and Conclusion Turkey's realities do not square with her potential. To underline it once again, what makes Turkey unable to attract foreign investment despite her great potential is instability and insufficient security. Under the conditions in which Turkey finds herself today, she is unable to give confidence to investors despite her potential. But Turkey has the power to change this situation. It would not be at all difficult for Turkey to change this picture in a very short time and to attract investments of 25-30 billion dollars a year. Many developing countries have succeeded in increasing their foreign investments eight- or ten fold within the short space of two or three years. Managing this would seem to be even easier for Turkey than for other countries. Investors also know that chronic instability like that in Turkey can be eliminated very quickly. What investors want to see is the intention and some permanent steps taken on the road to stability. We see today that some initial steps are being taken. Constitutional amendments have been realized for concessions and international arbitration; the retirement age, which is very important for the social security system, and the Banking Law have been revised; and care is being taken to adhere to budgetary discipline to a degree not seen for a long time. Parallel with this, in the letter of intent given to the IMF at the end of last year, the government pledged to launch a serious campaign to lower inflation for the first time in many years and, to support the fight against inflation, announced daily foreign exchange rates for the year. Such measures have long been awaited by investors. All these developments are paving the way to positive observations by international financial institutions and rating firms as well as creating some relief for Turkey as she borrows from international markets. Nevertheless, Turkey has proved herself to be a nation of contradictions on this score. Besides the favorable developments described above, and beyond the ongoing hitches in implementation and failure to solve existing problems, certain newly issued laws containing provisions that discriminate against foreign investors have now cast a shadow over these investors' positive views of Turkey. Such arrangements, which very probablystem from inadequate coordination among the various ministries of the coalition government, or from the approaches of isolated individuals, need to be eliminated immediately and care taken to prevent unfavorable clauses like this from being included in new legislation. This is extremely important. Turkey cannot afford to make any mistakes on this point. Consequently, the government needs to secure the necessary coordination and be firm when it comes to dispersing this positive approach throughout the government as a whole. In conclusion, foreign investors acknowledge Turkey to be one of the most attractive points of investment in the world today. Due to the unstable conditions in which she finds herself, Turkey is unable to realize this important potential and is able to attract only one thirtieth of the amount of investment that could potentially come into the country. By following up the positive steps taken in the recent period, successfully implementing the stabilization program, eliminating the deficiencies in the investment climate and making progress towards harmonizing legislation with the EU, Turkey can rapidly become a country that attracts investment at the desired level. Despite problems, Turkey caught extremely advantageous position to attract direct foreign investments. Under this context, recognition of Turkey as nominee of full member of European Union has been a positive development. Besides, as a result of positive relations with neighbor countries and economic stability measures the finance institutions such as World Bank, International Monetary Fund changed their evaluation towards positive and this caused international investors to look positive towards Turkey first time after years. These developments gave an important chance to Turkey in order to attract direct foreign investment at desired levels. It will be possible for Turkey to achieve increases in foreign capital entries after decreasing inflation and making necessary legal and structural arrangements. However, in order to realize these objectives encouragements given by other countries to direct foreign investments must beadopted by Turkey and effective promotion campaigns must be launched. Arrangements for direct foreign investments shall bring positive results only if they are notified to investor and investment environment is effectively promoted. Increases in direct foreign investments shall be achieved if the problems are determined correctly, and necessary legal and structural arrangements are done and are investment environment enhanced to international standards.
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