Trakya alt bölgesinde bir ulaşım modeli uygulaması
An Application of a transport model in thrace sub region
- Tez No: 39342
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ.DR. GÜLDEN ERKUT
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Şehircilik ve Bölge Planlama, Urban and Regional Planning
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1993
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 83
Özet
ÖZET Şehircilik ve bölge planlamasında fiziksel mekanı oluşturan iki unsur; arazi kullanışı ve ulaşımdır. Bu iki unsur arasın da karmaşık bir ilişki vardır ve biri için alman herhangi bir karar aynı anda veya zaman içinde kaçınılmaz olarak diğer alanı da etkiler. Ulaşım ve arazi kullanışdaki değişimlerin etkisinin uzun vadede ortaya çıkması ve geri birikimdeki bilgilerin değerlendirilmesiyle fark edilemeyen önemli etkilere sahip olması nedeniyle gözlemlere dayanılarak tanımlanması çok zordur. Bu nedeni çalışmada izlenen yöntemli bu karmaşık "ilişkiye neden olan elemanlarla ilgili gözlenen değişimlerin' oluşum ve gelişimini izleyip bunun, gelecekte bütün üzerindeki etkisinin nasıl olacağını tahmin etmektir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, ulaşım-arazi kullanış arasındaki etkileşimi Trakya Alt Bölgesi verilerini kullanarak belirlemek ve gelecekte bölgede, bu etkileşim sonunda nasıl bir değişim olacağını kestirmektir. Bu amaçla oluşturulan modelin ilk aşaması, Trakya Alt Bölgesi'ndeki trafik hareketlerinin bölge içi ve dışındaki başlangıç ve bitiş noktalarını belirleyip bu noktaların ulaşım sis temini nasıl yüklediğini ortaya çıkarmak. ikinci aşaması da, bölge için üretilen farklı kararların etkisiyle değişen bu yüklemelerin olumsuz etkilerinin ulaşım sistemi üzerinde yapılacak hangi değişikliklerle giderilebileceğini belirlemektir. ıx
Özet (Çeviri)
SUMMARY AN APPLICATION OF A TRANSPORT MODEL ÎN THRACE SUB REGION Reference to any history of regional development will show the important role of transportation has played in forming regions. The mechanisation of transportation has undoubtedly been the single most important couse of a revolution in living which begin last century and is still continuing as the private car ancourages more dispersed patterns of activity. Transportation and land - use are sides of the same coin yet transportation policies are enacted with only a vague and unreliable knowledge of what the effects might be on land - use in the long term, and how they in turn might react back on the transportation itself. The interaction between land - use and transportation is a two - way process, but it is a great deal more complicated than the many other two - way processes which are frequently encountered in every day life, because the various interactions all take place over vastly different time scales and there are so many of them. To disentangle these interactions by observation is difficult in the extreme and yet without knowing what they are and at what strenghts they work, it is not possible to predict what the effects will be of changes in policy or in the underlying backround trends. One way of tackling this problem is to try to understand the basic mechanisms involved and to incorporate these in a general framework or model. xMuch effort and expense has been expended over the years in developling such models but because of the difficulty of testing their predictions little is known about how well that work in practice, even though several of them have already been used in the determination of policies affecting infrastructure. Town and regional planning and transportation planning often exist as seperate activities, subject to the control of different organisations, and yet the present appearance of towns, cities and regions is largely due to the complex interactions which exist between transportation and land -use pattern. This intricate connection between transportation and land -use means that any policy, whether relating specifically to land - use development or to the provision of transportation facilities, will inevitably affect the other dimension, though not necessarily on the same timescale. For example, the provision of a new road will initially speed up travel for people who use that route, and may encourage a change in mode or in the time at which they travel. it will also encourage some people to travel to a different destination. some of this adaptation will take place immediately, but it will take considerable time for the effect to be felt in full. over a still longer timescale the changes in travel speed will have an effect on where people choose to live and work, and ultimately on where new firms, homes, shops and other premises are built. These longer - term effects will then necessitate a reassesment of the transportation facilities provided, setting off the whole process of readjusment again. XIHow than is this desirable improvement in the planning process to be achieved ? The traditional scientific approach would be to observe the effects of applying particular policies and derive a technique based on the findings of such observations. in the case of transportation and land - use changes, however, many potentially important impacts are of such a long - term nature that they are liable to be masked by backround changes which are totally unrelated to the particular changes of interest, so that they cannot clearly identified by observations. consequently, researchers have attempted to understand the mechanisms which give rise to the observed changes by studying each of the individual links in the chain of events. once these relationships are understood sufficiently well it becomes possible to construct a mathematical model to represent the more important interactions which are taking place so that, gradually, the individual mechanisms are assembled into a more complex whole. over the past 30 years numerous attempts have been made to model land - use and transportation changes separately but few attempts were made to model the interactions between the two. on the tranportation side, the large -scale American transportation studies of the 1950s saw the beginnings of attempts to model transportation changes; familiar 4 - step transportation model, which is now in widespread use, is a direct outcome of this and other similar work. such models for forecasting travel between zones are based on aggregate cross - sectional data and operate in four distinct steps: xiitrip generation, trip distribution, modal split and route assignment. while progress was being made in this area, other researchers more interested in land - use development were attempting to model the changing urban scene. Lowry* s Model of Metropolis (Lowry 1964) is generally regarded as the foundation of integrated land - use and transportation models, since it provided a mechanism for the location of basic industry and the level of accessibility of the various residental zones in the area. Model of Metropolis contained no detailed representation of transportation, accessibility being measured purely in terms of crow - fly distances, but later modellers have expanded Lowry' s approach in various ways and coupled it to the standart 4 - step transportation models, capable of modelling not only the changes in travel patterns which result from changes in land - use and transportation provision, but also changes in land - use resulting from changes in the supply of transportation. with interest in the field growing, other researchers have developed fully - interactive models from quite different starting points. There have been several theoretical base of the relationships between transportation and land - use;. Microeconomy Theory. Entropy / information Theory. Random utilty Theory. Time Geography Theory. Economic Base Theory. walfare Economy Theory The techniques used in the modelling of transportation and land - use are; xiiispatial interaction Models Market Mechanisms Models Input - outpur Models Micro simulation Models and Lineer Regretion Models The thesis is divided into five main parts following the introduction, Part n describes and emphasize the theoretical base of models. Part in containes the presentation of land - use and transportation while part IV presents Thrace sub Region, part v provides the application of a transportation model in Thrace sub Region and Part vi include the results and evaluation. xiv
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