Üretim sistemlerinin maliyet analizi
Generation systems cost analysis
- Tez No: 39802
- Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. NESRİN TARKAN
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Elektrik ve Elektronik Mühendisliği, Electrical and Electronics Engineering
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1994
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 128
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
SUMMARY GENERATION SYSTEM COST ANALYSIS Due to growth of population and developing technology life styles have changed, thereby increasing the consumption of electrical energy. As a result of this, new techniques have been required to be developed for generation expansion planning in order to provide cheap, reliable and opposite electrical energy. Ali studies in this area are defined as generation capacity planning in power systems. Due to the energy crisis which arouse at the begining of 1970's, the problem has become of majör importance and starting in the same decade, the solution to the problem is dealt with, by more developed models. For capacity planners with interest in obtaining precise detail concerning system operation and behavior, the simulation approach provides an intuitively appealing methodology. it has been applied since the initial development of computers. Based on daily, weekly, ör other periodic aggregations of the actions of the generation network, the detailed simulation can model the complex and probabilistic nature of the situation. in ali of the models that are used reliability along with economical optimization have been the main goals. Among ali the topics in the generation expansion planning, the main issue is the estimation of the possible changes in energy and/or power demand throughout the planning period. Constructional changes that may arise in energy and/or consumption, out to be considered in parallel with the expected economical changes. With the aid of demand levels for different time intervals are estimated. The closer this estimation is to the actual values, the closer öne gets to the optimal values. Generation expansion planning problem involves system reliability along with economical optimization as öne of its main goals. Reliability involves stability of the systems, its continuation and adequency. Evaluation of system reliability and its application to planning decisions are important issues. Reliability evaluation is made, based on probable estimation of power demand and system capacity. There are many methods that are used in reliability evaluation. Among these, the öne that is used the most for constant load values is the Loss of Probability (LOLP). Besides this, there are many techniques which xhave been classified into probability, duration and expectation approaches. in electrical power system planning, as the accomplishment of optimal stability from the point of view of being economical and reliable, the planner considers choices which have high technical reliability. The choices are made based on basic concepts of engineering economy. Engineering economy studies are mainly comparative, therefore decisions are always in terms of alternatives. The primary condition for a healthy comparison and the choice of the best alternative is the closeness and even congruency of the technical properties of the compared alternatives. The methods of engineering economy can only be applied to a situation that has been brought up this point. With the aid of this methods many-time relation may be found. The different economical values of investment materials can be calculated and protection by allowing an amortization can be planned. Through the use of plant cost analysis including capacity cost, production cost, and operations and maintenance (O&M) cost, the basic philosophy of choosing the most economical expansion plan that also satisfied the desired reliability criteria was presented. it was shown that the capacity cost depends on the unit capacity cost, the fixed charge rate, and the expected value of energy to be produced by each generating unit as well as the production costs, a detailed production analysis technique was proposed, in which forecast uncertainty, random unit outages, economic commitment ete. can be simulated to model the system realistically. Special emphasis was placed on developing the economic commitment schedules (ECS) and corresponding production cost for expansion plans containing fossil, nuclear and conventional and pumped hydro units. A brief discussion of corporate models was included to illustrate how and where generation system costs impact on the financial structure of a modern utility. Energy transactions and off-peak energy sales were also discussed. it was found that both concepts can be easily included in the simulation of an expansion plan. Off-peak energy sales, perhaps stimulated by lower rates, can easily improve the overall operation of a modern electric utility by improving capacity factors and by making more efficient use of installed capacity. The discussions pertaining to system costs and corporate modeling have clearly indicated the role production analysis plays in generation system planning. in system cost analysis it is necessary to know the expected value of the annual costs. Similarly, in corporate model studies performed on a monthly basis, a detailed account of monthly production costs including energy purchases ör sales is necessary. Further, because of sometimes lengthy delays in fuel procurement, it is essential for an electric utility to have the capability of determining anticipated fuel inventories. in the case of both nuclear xiand hydro generation, fuel management is quite complex. Since these two sources of energy must be utilized in accordance with rigid refueling and hydrological constraints, production analysis of mixed generation systems is quite involved. it is obvious that timing the investment associated with adding a new unit is important. Further, the effect of new unit additions on total system production coat is a factor that should be reflected in the total present worth of a particular expansion plan. Although this may not be obvious, the addition of a new unit can drastically change the operation of existing units and hence production cost. For instance, if a based-load fossil unit were added prematurely to a system containing base-load nuclear, the tendency to off-load the nuclear units could result in substantially higher production costs. Even though nuclear generation is increasing rapidly, many countries will continue for some years to rely on fossil-fueled generators to supply the bulk of their electric energy needs. in fact, with the apparently tight oil situation, a return to the use of coal is being under taken by many utilities. The point here is that fossil-fueled plants vvill be around a good while, continuing to threaten the quality of the air we breathe, until workable and economically feasible methods are found to clean up fossil fuels. Because of the amount of concern for maintaining a desirable level of ambient air quality, a detailed method for assessing the ambient air quality for a given generation system expansion plan, with particular emphasis given to ground level SO2 and particulate concentrations were discussed. The cost of reducing SO2 and particulate emissions, using precipitators and scrubbers as well as system design parameters such as stack heights, fuel sülfür contents, ete. were also discussed. There is no doubt that thermally polluting rivers and lakes is having some effect on ecosystems, but the effects have not yet been effectively quantified. What is clear is that the water supply available for power plants is reaching a critical state in some areas. This critical situation can be resolved only through the use of so-called dry cooling methods that do not require make up water and do not involve injecting thermally polluted condenser water into natural bodies of water. For environmental cost analysis, the effects of generation systems on physical, biological and social environment which are discussed very much today were presented. Also a few comments about the cost of complying with air and water pollution standards were given. Of the two, air pollution compliance appears to be more difficult because of dirty fuels and the lack of commercially and economically feasible sülfür removal ör desulfurization equipment. Until such equipment is xiideveloped, some control over ambient air quality can be affected by judiciously using low-sulfur fuels, stack heights, etc. Finally, a model, developed for generation expansion planning, which contains an objective function that will simultaneously minimize the capital and operational costs consist of some constraint inequalities, as follows: Minimize Z = £cjXj + £ £ £fjt yjti Wj j i J t Subject to Vajt Xj U; SPtj(l +m) for every t, i j Şyjti^ti for every t, i j 0
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