Endüstri mühendisliğinde uzman sistemler ve proje yönetim yazılımı seçimine bir uzman sistem yaklaşımı
Expert systems in industrial engineering and an expert system approach to selecting project management software
- Tez No: 39883
- Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. RAMAZAN EVREN
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği, Industrial and Industrial Engineering
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1994
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 328
Özet
ÖZET Uzman sistemler yenidir. Fakat, diğer geleneksel yazılım sistemleri açı sından da bilgisayar biliminin öncü ülkelerinin bir hayli gerisinde kalan Türkiye için bu teknoloji çok daha yenidir. Bugünün dünyasında giderek önemi artan uzman sistemleri ve bu yeni teknolojinin endüstri mühendisliği disiplinine po tansiyel katkısı ile, Türkiye'deki durumunu ele alan bu çalışma on bölümden oluşmaktadır: ilk altı bölüm uzman sistemlerin tanıtımına ayrılmıştır. Uzman sistem yaklaşımına yabancı olanlar için oldukça faydalı olacağına inandığımız bu bö lümlerde, uzman sistem teknolojisi farklı özellikleriyle ayrıntılı biçimde ele alı nır. Uzman sistemler teknolojik olarak ve uygulama alanında büyük gelişme ler göstermiştir ve gelecek için büyük şeyler vaat etmektedir. Yedinci bölüm de, uzman sistem teknolojisinin geleceğine ilişkin bu beklentiler verilir. Sekizinci bölümün konusu, çalışmanın temel konularından biri olan uz man sistemler ve endüstri mühendisliği arasındaki ilişkilerdir. Bu bölümde endüstri mühendisliğinin farklı alanlarındaki uzman sistem uygulamaları tanı tılarak, uzman sistem yaklaşımının endüstri mühendisliği disiplini üzerindeki etkileri tartışılır. Dokuzuncu bölümde çalışmamız sırasında geliştirilen bir uzman sistem tanıtılır. Uzman sistemlerin gözde dili PROLOG'un bir çeşidi olan TURBO PROLOG ile geliştirilen bu sistemin amacı, proje yönetim yazılımı seçiminde karar vericilere yardımcı olmaktır. Onuncu bölümün konusu, uzman sistem teknolojisinin Türkiye'deki duru mu ve mümkün kullanım alanlarıdır. Bu bölümde ülkemizin 500 büyük sanayi kuruluşu, yazılım evleri ve üniversitelerimizde yapılan araştırmanın sonuçları ve bu sonuçlar ışığında öneri ve beklentiler verilir. XI
Özet (Çeviri)
EXPERT SYSTEMS IN INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND AN EXPERT SYSTEM APPROACH TO SELECTING PROJECT MANAGEMENT SOFTWARE Expert (or knowledge-based) systems represent a relatively new prog ramming approach and methodology, one that evolved and is still evolving as an important subarea of artificial intelligence research. This study has the three main goals: First, to show what expert systems are, how they are structured, and how their key elements are designed and operated; second, to examine the relationship and usefulness of expert systems to the industrial engineering profession, and the applications of ex pert systems in industrial engineering and finally to investigate the current si tuation and potential application areas of expert systems in Turkey. The study is composed of ten chapters. The first six chapters discuss some of the principles of expert systems: Chapter 1 presents an overview of expert systems and introduces fundamental concepts. In Chapter 2 it is add resses the question of how to develop and maintain these systems. Chapter 4 deals with the inference engine. Main topics of this chapter are search techniques, control strategies and blackboard model. In Chapter 5 it is desc ribed several methods for handling uncertainty. Chapter 3 presents the basic issues of knowledge representation and describes several schemes that are used to represent knowledge. Chapter 4 deals with the inference engine. Main topics of this chapter are search techniques, control strategies and blackboard model. In Chapter 5 it is described several methods for handling uncertainty. Chapter 6 discusses the existing tools for developing expert systems. The chapter concludes with an evaluation of the hardware of expert systems software. Chapter 7 presents future trends for expert systems technology. Chapter 8 discusses the potential contribution of expert systems to in dustrial engineering and mutual benefits. In addition, recent applications of expert systems in industrial engineering are surveyed. Chapter 9 describes an expert system for selecting PC-based project management software. Xllbest-first and exhaustive. Each of the four strategies uses a slightly different approach to search for the target solution A different and extremely powerful problem-solving technique is called blackboarding. In blackboarding, the knowledge required to solve a problem is segmented into separate and independent knowledge bases. CHAPTER 5 Rules obtained from human experts are sometimes uncertain; they desc ribe some rules as“maybe”,“sometimes”,“often”, or“not quite certain about the conclusion”. You need some methods to handle these types of state ments; moreover, like human experts, expert systems may have to draw infe rences based on incomplete information, such as unavailable, unknown, or uncertain information. Even though the reliability of knowledge that is inserted into the knowled ge base is questionable, the ability to represent facts that are not guaranteed to be 100 % accurate is important to expert systems. The likehood that a fact is true is called the fact's certainty factor (CF). In most expert systems, this number is between 0 and 1, where 0 represents no confidence in the fact, and 1 represents complete trust in the validity of the fact. Besides certainty factors, there are several methods for handling uncer tainty. But expert systems using current technology are not capable of dea ling with uncertainty as effectively as their human counterparts, and this sub ject remains an important research topic. However, although these methods will not completely duplicate human capabilities, each has proved to be useful in the development of actual systems. CHAPTER 6 One of the main reasons for the rapid growth in the rate of expert system development is the support of a rich set of powerful development tools. Se lecting the correct tool, or set of tools, is a key decision in the development of an expert system. There are many different types of expert system development tools with a wide variety of levels and types of functionality and hardware support requi rements. In general, expert system tools can be thought of as comprising a spectrum. Because artificial intelligence languages, such as LISP and PRO LOG, can sometimes be considered development tools this spectrum moves from the lowest-level general-purpose languages to the highest-level large hybrid development environments. Tools for expert system development offer many facilities to knowledge engineers. The two major expert system programming languages are LISP and PROLOG, which are used to create tools. A majority of tools are written in LISP; however, a few of them are in PROLOG. These tools provide many conveniences that are not available in conventional programming packages. With greater effort, LISP or PROLOG (or even one of conventional XVThe objective of Chapter 10 is to investigate the situation of expert systems technology in Turkey and how we can utilize this technology for Tur key. In the following, the main points of every chapter are presented briefly CHAPTER 1 An expert system is an intelligent computer program that uses knowled ge and inference procedures to solve problems that are difficult enough to re quire significant human expertise for their solution. Their application is usu ally performed in a specific knowledge of a limited scope. Early expert systems indeed achieved remarkable success at solving practical problems of significant scientific and socio-economic implications, mainly in chemistry (DENDRAL), geology (PROSPECTOR), mathematics (MACSYMA) and medicine (MYCIN). This had excited widespread interest among workers in other areas in applying expert systems to their particular domains. The relatively recent availability of low-cost mini and microcompu ters has facilitated a rapid expansion of expert systems development activiti es in these areas. There are numerous benefits that can be derived from ex pert system applications. The point to remember is that an expert system application can be developed for most cases where an expert uses his know ledge to make intelligent decisions. An expert system generally consists of the following components: i) A knowledge base containing knowledge (basic facts, procedural rules, and heuristics) about a problem domain; ii) A working memory (also called temporary data store or assertions) for keeping track of inputs, intermediate conclusions, and outputs; iii) An inference engine (also known as control structure, reasoning mec hanism, or rule interpreter) for manipulating the stored knowledge to produce solutions to problems; iv) An explanation facility to explain to the user what line of reasoning was used to reach its conclusion; v) A knowledge acquisition module to assist with the development of the knowledge base; vi) A user interface to handle communication with the user in natural lan guage. CHAPTER 2 The phase of expert system building is time consuming and non-trivial. The construction of an expert system consists of the following six phases: i) Problem selection and definition; ii) Conceptualization and prototype construction; iii) Formalization; xmtechnology results from the interest on this technology. However, the use of expert systems in industry doesn't exceed several individual efforts. Also, there are no expert system or development tool in the product lists of softwa re houses because the demand for expert systems doesn't come into existen ce yet. The major problems for the development of expert systems technology in Turkey are as follows: i) high cost (software, hardware and labor); ii) being unknown of this technology and the knowledge engineering con cept; iii) high development time; iv) insufficiencies in the software sector of Turkey. Over time, these problems will be exceeded, but necessary steps must be taken before it is too late. xvnThe objective of Chapter 10 is to investigate the situation of expert systems technology in Turkey and how we can utilize this technology for Tur key. In the following, the main points of every chapter are presented briefly CHAPTER 1 An expert system is an intelligent computer program that uses knowled ge and inference procedures to solve problems that are difficult enough to re quire significant human expertise for their solution. Their application is usu ally performed in a specific knowledge of a limited scope. Early expert systems indeed achieved remarkable success at solving practical problems of significant scientific and socio-economic implications, mainly in chemistry (DENDRAL), geology (PROSPECTOR), mathematics (MACSYMA) and medicine (MYCIN). This had excited widespread interest among workers in other areas in applying expert systems to their particular domains. The relatively recent availability of low-cost mini and microcompu ters has facilitated a rapid expansion of expert systems development activiti es in these areas. There are numerous benefits that can be derived from ex pert system applications. The point to remember is that an expert system application can be developed for most cases where an expert uses his know ledge to make intelligent decisions. An expert system generally consists of the following components: i) A knowledge base containing knowledge (basic facts, procedural rules, and heuristics) about a problem domain; ii) A working memory (also called temporary data store or assertions) for keeping track of inputs, intermediate conclusions, and outputs; iii) An inference engine (also known as control structure, reasoning mec hanism, or rule interpreter) for manipulating the stored knowledge to produce solutions to problems; iv) An explanation facility to explain to the user what line of reasoning was used to reach its conclusion; v) A knowledge acquisition module to assist with the development of the knowledge base; vi) A user interface to handle communication with the user in natural lan guage. CHAPTER 2 The phase of expert system building is time consuming and non-trivial. The construction of an expert system consists of the following six phases: i) Problem selection and definition; ii) Conceptualization and prototype construction; iii) Formalization; xmThe objective of Chapter 10 is to investigate the situation of expert systems technology in Turkey and how we can utilize this technology for Tur key. In the following, the main points of every chapter are presented briefly CHAPTER 1 An expert system is an intelligent computer program that uses knowled ge and inference procedures to solve problems that are difficult enough to re quire significant human expertise for their solution. Their application is usu ally performed in a specific knowledge of a limited scope. Early expert systems indeed achieved remarkable success at solving practical problems of significant scientific and socio-economic implications, mainly in chemistry (DENDRAL), geology (PROSPECTOR), mathematics (MACSYMA) and medicine (MYCIN). This had excited widespread interest among workers in other areas in applying expert systems to their particular domains. The relatively recent availability of low-cost mini and microcompu ters has facilitated a rapid expansion of expert systems development activiti es in these areas. There are numerous benefits that can be derived from ex pert system applications. The point to remember is that an expert system application can be developed for most cases where an expert uses his know ledge to make intelligent decisions. An expert system generally consists of the following components: i) A knowledge base containing knowledge (basic facts, procedural rules, and heuristics) about a problem domain; ii) A working memory (also called temporary data store or assertions) for keeping track of inputs, intermediate conclusions, and outputs; iii) An inference engine (also known as control structure, reasoning mec hanism, or rule interpreter) for manipulating the stored knowledge to produce solutions to problems; iv) An explanation facility to explain to the user what line of reasoning was used to reach its conclusion; v) A knowledge acquisition module to assist with the development of the knowledge base; vi) A user interface to handle communication with the user in natural lan guage. CHAPTER 2 The phase of expert system building is time consuming and non-trivial. The construction of an expert system consists of the following six phases: i) Problem selection and definition; ii) Conceptualization and prototype construction; iii) Formalization; xm
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