Yatırım projelerinin hazırlanması ve değerlendirilmesi
Industrial fesability studies
- Tez No: 39882
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ.DR. MEHMET TANYAŞ
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği, Industrial and Industrial Engineering
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1994
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 219
Özet
ÖZET Bu çalışma, yatırım projelerinin düzenlenmesi ve değerlendirilmesi olarak iki ana kısımdan oluşmaktadır. Üçüncü kısımda ise hazırlanan fizibilite etüd örneğinin değerlendirilmesi yer almaktadır. Birinci kısım, fizibilite etüdünün ana hatlarını kapsamaktadır. Her bölümde fizibilite etüdünün hazırlanması sırasında yapılması gereken çalışmalar anlatılmıştır. Fizibilite etüdlerinin başlangıcında yatırım projesinin tanımlanması gereklidir ve yatırımların avantajlı yönlerini belirleyen anahtar faaliyet olan pazar analizi yapılmalıdır. Daha sonra yatırım süresince gerekli olacak hammadde ve girdiler, yatırım projesinin yeri ve çevresi, yatırım projesinde yer alan mühendislik ve teknoloji bölümleri gelmektedir. Fizibilite etüdünde ayrıca insan kaynakları ve organizasyon bölümü de yer almalıdır. En son olarak yatırım projesinin finansal analizi ve yatırım tahmini yapılmalıdır. İkinci kısım ise yatırım projelerinin değerlendirilmesi sırasında yapılması gerekenleri kapsamaktadır. Proje değerlendirme kuruluştan kuruluşa farklılık gösterebilir. Proje değerlendirmenin amacı, tasarlanan bir yatırımın fayda ve maliyetlerini ileriye dönük bir zaman dilimi içinde tahmini değerler ile hesaplamak yoluyla girişimci, ekonomi ve yatırımı finanse eden kuruluş açısından riskini belirlemektir. Proje değerlendirilmesi çalışmasında, yatırım projesi iktisadi, teknik ve mali açılardan ele alınır. Üçüncü kısımda uygulama yer almaktadır. Uygulamada Türk Sınai Kalkınma Bankası A.Ş.'nin proje değerlendirme formatı temel olarak alınmıştır. Uygulamanın konusu; penye pamuk ipliği üreten bir tekstil firması kapasitesini artırmak istemektedir. Bu firmanın hazırladığı proje iktisadi, teknik ve mali yönden analiz edilmiştir. IX
Özet (Çeviri)
SUMMARY INDUSTRIAL FEASIBILITY STUDIES Investment is the transfer of the unconsumed and unexported part of the produced and imported goods in a country in a period to the subsequent periods. Investment is also observed to be additions to the production capacity of the country. Investment at company base is defined as capacity increase or preserve of continuity. A feasibility should provide all data necessary for an investment decision. The commercial, technical, financial, economic and environmental prerequisites for an investment project should therefore be defined and critically examined on the basis of alternative solutions already reviewed in the pre-feasibility study. The result of these efforts is then a project whose background conditions and aims have been clearly defined in terms of its central objective and possible marketing strategies, the possible market shares that can be achieved, the corresponding production capacities, the plant location, existing raw materials, appropriate technology and mechanical equpment and, if required, an environmental impact assessment. The financial part of the study covers the scope of the investment, including the net working capital, the production and marketing costs, sales revenues and the return on capital invested. The term“feasibility study”is often misunderstood and deliberately misused by suppliers of equipment or technology. Frequently, an outline of a project primarily oriented to supply of equpment or the choice of a particular technology is called a feasibility study, although it is rather a technical or support study, not covering all feasibility aspects, as required for an unbiased project appraisal. Sometimes production or sales estimates are based on conditions observed in a developed country and bear little relation to those in a developing country. As these studies are unrelated or ill-adapted to the local business environment, they can be misleading and result in themisallocation of resources, as has often occured in developing countries. A feasibility study must be related to available production factors and local market and production conditions, and this requires an analysis that has to be translated into costs, income and net gains. A feasibility study should be carried out only if the necessary financing facilities, as determined by the studies, can be identified with a fair degree of accuracy. There would be little sense in a feasibility study without the reliable assurance that, in the event of positive study findings, funds could be made available. For that reason, possible project financing must be considered as early as the feasibility study stage, because financing conditions have a direct effect on total costs and thus on the financial feasibility of the project. This study consists of two main parts; planning and appraisals of investment projects. In the third part, a feasibility study of an investment case is presented. The first main part includes the major parts of feasibility study. In every chapter, the required studies need to be done for the feasibility study are explained. In chapter 1- Project Concept And Definition of Investment Project-, definition of investment project and main parameters that are going to be used through the study are described. In chapter 2- Market Analysis and Marketing Concept-, the key points that are used to determine whether the investments are of advantage or not, are given. It is conceived in a much broader way and presents marketing research as a basic tool for defining the marketing concept to be adopted by the project. It concludes with the determination of the sales programme and the forecast of the sales revenues. Also, this chapter gives the idea of deciding on possible production programmes and selection of technology and location. Chapter 3- Raw Materials and Supplies-, studies the properties of inputs, the possibility of getting them, a time plan of purchasing and the costs of them. In chapter 4- Location Site and Environment-, The conditions that should be considered for selection of the region which the investment project XIwould facilitate. Also this part deals with the environmental impact of industrial investment projects on the choice of location and site. Chapter 5- Engineering and Technology-, starts with the identification of factory capacity, a production programme and continues with technology selection and ways of purchasing the technology. It is the task of the engineering team to design the functional and physical layout required for the industrial plant to meet production goals. This chapter is concerned not only with engineering design, the computation of investment expenditures and the determination, for the operational phase, of human and material inputs, including their costs, but also with a wide range of interrelated activities such as the choice, acquisition and transfer of technology, which have to be carefully planned, assessed and coordinated. Chapter 6- Human Resources and Organization-, contains the necessary labor categories and lobor neccessities in the project. Also, the organization structure and labor training programmes for feasibility study exist in this chapter. Chapter 7- Financial Analysis and Investment Appraisal- after a discussion of the objectives and scope of financial analysis, the basic criteria for investment and financing decisions are introduced. Those criteria conncem the role of private and public interests, the impact of pricing of project inputs and outputs, the planning horizon and the problems relating to risks and decisions in conditions of uncertainty. The structure of investment, production and marketing costs is analysed, taking into account the realibility of data and the need to identify critical variables as a precondition for the appraisal of investment projects by inventors and financing institutions. Basic investment appraisal methods, including the computation of the discounted cash flow (internal rate of return, net present value) and conventional ratios, as well as the interpretation of figures, are discussed in detail, with investment being defined as a long term commitment of economic resources with the objective of producing and obtaining net gains in the future, and with the transformation of financial resources (that is liquidity) into productive assets being viewed as the main aspect of that commitment. After consideration of project financing and various aspects of risk and uncertainly (sensitivity, break-even and probability analysis), this chapter closes with a brief review of the objectives of economic analysis. XIIPart two describes the investment appraisal steps. Investment appraisal may change according to the firm. Since this study is in full detail, some projects may not include some of the steps mentioned here. The aim of project appraisal is to determine the risk for financer, for economy and for enterpriser through calculation of the expected utility and cost values of a planned investment. The project appraisal is concentrated on economical, technical and financial analysis. Economical investigation and appraisal must be done in two seperate parts; investigation through the view of enterpriser and the determination for the addition to national economy. Technical appraisal concentrates on the goods, production programmes, capacity calculations, appropriateness of machinery and tecnology selection and effects to the environment. Also, it includes calculation of investment cost and production costs. In financial anaysis and appraisal selection, conditions of credit lines are determined by calculating investment costs, finance requirements and profitability in according to economical and technological data. Appraisal of investment project concentrates on comparison between outputs and inputs of investment, because of usage of scarce materials. It also investigates whether necessary utility will be obtained and investigates the probability of using those scarce materials in another project in more usefull method. At the end of this investigation, attractiveness of the project is determined. In part 3, case study is presented. A feasibility study for a building investment is prepared for a firm which produces cotton threadsince 1987 and plannes to increase its capacity by 4.130 tones/year from 3.360 tones/year to 7.490 tones/year. In this part, the appraisal of this case study is given. XIIIAt the end of the appraisal: - The value added at tha maximum capacity usage ratio is found as 69.660 million TL. - By the effect of the investment on labor is 1 53 people. - Value added per labor increase is 455 million TL. - Fixed investment is 282.500 million TL. - Total investment / labor is 1,876 million TL. - The break-even point at the end of investment project is 55 %. - Financial internal profitability ratio is calculated as 18 %. At the end of appraisal, it is concluded that credit lines can be opened for the firm considering the obtained data. The terms of the credit will be determined by the financer firm. xiv
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