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Essays on monetary economics

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  1. Tez No: 401614
  2. Yazar: TİMUR HÜLAGÜ
  3. Danışmanlar: DR. P. DEAN CORBAE
  4. Tez Türü: Doktora
  5. Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 2009
  8. Dil: İngilizce
  9. Üniversite: The University of Texas at Austin
  10. Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  12. Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: 110

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Özet (Çeviri)

In the first chapter, I examine an incomplete markets economy in a politico-economic general equilibrium setting in which the median voter chooses the inflation rate. I use an environment where individuals face an unin-surable idiosyncratic labor productivity shock, and money is the only asset. Being an effective tax on savings, inflation acts as a redistribution mechanism transferring resources from the rich to the poor. I show that the median voter chooses a positive inflation rate as the politico-economic equilibrium outcome. In the second chapter, I analyze how forming a monetary union affects consumption and earnings inequalities through monetary policy changes im-plied by adopting a common currency. I use a two country open-economy, overlapping-generations model with heterogenous individuals to investigate these effects. In the model, inflation tax is the only redistributive tool and con-sumption and earnings inequalities are decreasing functions of inflation. When forming a monetary union, countries face a trade-off between the undesirable distributional effects of loslng thelr monetary autonomy and benefits from the ellmlnatlon of trade frlctlons. Findings suggest that when countrles choose to do so, the country with hlgher inltlal inflatlon will definltely experlence a fall in its inflatlon, hence an increase in its inequalities. In the country with lower inltlal inflatlon, however, inflatlon and lnequalltles might go in elther dlrectlon depending on the degree of heterogeneity and the trade dependency between the countries. As the inflationary effect of uniting its monetary policy with a high inflatlon country can domlnate the reduclng effect of vanished trade frlctlons on inflatlon, this country might have an increase in its inflatlon, and a decrease in its inequalities. Finally, in the third chapter, I compare the indirect measure of inflation expectations derlved by Ireland (1996b) to the dlrect measures obtalned from expectations surveys in two case studies: the US and Turkey. Our results show that the inflatlon bounds calculated for US data are more volatlle than survey results, and are too narrow to contain them due to low standard errors in con-sumptlon growth serles stemmlng from high perslstence. For the Turkish case, on the other hand, out of three different surveys on inflatlon expectations in Turkey compared wlth the bounds computed uslng Turklsh data, expectatlons obtalned by the Consumer Tendency Survey fall within these bounds through-out the whole sample perlod. Moreover we show that, as Flsher's theory suggests, real interest rates are extremely volatile in Turkey and movements in nominal interest rates cannot be directly used as an indicator of changes in inflation expectations.

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