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The monetary transmission mechanism in emerging market economies: The Turkish case

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  1. Tez No: 402333
  2. Yazar: KORAY ALPER
  3. Danışmanlar: PROF. PIERRE-RICHARD AGENOR
  4. Tez Türü: Doktora
  5. Konular: Ekonomi, Maliye, Economics, Finance
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 2008
  8. Dil: İngilizce
  9. Üniversite: The University of Manchester
  10. Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  12. Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: 187

Özet

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Özet (Çeviri)

For emerging market countries, ‡exible exchange rate regimes have not been as successful as in advanced countries. Concerns on the feasibility of this regime for emerging countries stem from the distinctive features of these countries. Most emphasized features of these countries that are considered as being obstacles for the implementation of ‡exible exchange rate regimes are weak …scal and monetary credibility, liability dollarization, and vulnerability to capital ‡ows. This study analyses the transmission mechanism under a ‡exible exchange rate regime in a typical emerging market country, which recently shifted to ‡exible exchange rate regime, namely Turkey. First, a small static analytical model is built to analyze and show the implications of the aforementioned features of emerging market countries for the transmission of the monetary and external shocks in an intuitive way. In line with the relevant literature, the analyses showed that the conventional e¤ects of monetary and external shocks can even be reversed due to the mechanism peculiar to emerging countries. In the second part of the thesis a medium-scale macro model of Turkish economy was built. We ran the model with several shocks. In general, results showed that the economy is highly vulnerable to external shocks. Primary surplus plays a key role in the sustainability of the debt stock; however, composition of government expenditures should also be taken into account. Credibility of monetary policy a¤ects the cost of the monetary program, but alone can not change the long run results. Including exchange rate in the interest rate rule improves the in‡ation performance, however adversely a¤ects the public debt dynamics.

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