Essays on decision making intertemporal choice and uncertainty: Essays over besluitvorming: Tijdsvoorkeuren en Onzekerheid
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 403066
- Danışmanlar: PROF. PETER WAKKER, DR. HAN BLEICHRODT
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: Ekonomi, Sosyoloji, İşletme, Economics, Sociology, Business Administration
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2016
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 180
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
In this thesis we provided new results in two important branches of individual behavior in economics, namely choice under uncertainty and intertemporal choice. Specifically we focused on rationality in these two fields by means of four papers. First we developed a method to decompose beliefs and ambiguity attitudes. Through this separation, we were able to provide a theoretical analysis of the effect of receiving an uncertainty resolving piece of information on both parts in isolation. Then to test our model empirically, we set up a lab experiment to see how these components get affected by the arrival of new information separately. In our experimental framework, we elicited subjects' ask prices of options that are Initial Public Offerings for three different information conditions regarding the past returns of the relevant option. We found that pessimism component was relatively unaffected, whereas likelihood insensitivity diminished as more information about the historical performance of the stocks became available. We observed that the estimated beliefs, when corrected for ambiguity attitudes, converged to true frequencies. Subjects moved in the direction of subjective expected utility as more information was provided, however substantial deviations remained even in the maximum information condition. In our second paper, our focus was on an important aspect of decision under uncertainty: independence. We stated preference conditions capturing independence in a statistical sense, and examined independence in various models of decision making under uncertainty. Leaving aside the standard technical preference conditions, we showed that symmetry of independence is a necessary and sufficient condition for Bayesian decision rule. Although the symmetry of this basic notion appears to be natural, we showed that it is in fact quite restrictive in the sense that no other decision rule can accommodate it. Nonsymmetric independencies can be applied to non-Bayesian (ambiguity) models, where we derive their implications. In particular, these implications reveal a problem for the two stage Anscombe-Aumann framework, which is one of the most common frameworks in the ambiguity literature today. We show that this problem can be avoided if we simply reverse the order of stages in this framework. In the third paper of the thesis, we studied intertemporal choice. Existing characterizations of intertemporal choice models involve axioms that are not directed towards their empirical testability due to their theoretical nature. Considering the fact that models have to be tested for their appropriateness and accuracy, we presented new preference conditions based on a very natural and intuitive concept, the present value, which serve this purpose. Lies in the heart of our new characterizations is the independence this present value from other relevant factors and variables. We showed how similar types of preference conditions, imposing independence conditions between directly observable quantities, can be developed for other multi-criteria optimization problems and can simplify behavioral axiomatizations there. In our last paper, we provide an extension of our results from the third paper. Despite its prevalence, constant discounted utility has frequently been challenged on empirical grounds. As a result, many alternative models have been proposed to explain violations of this model. The fourth paper of the thesis studied two such models, namely variation aversion and decreasing impatience, that can accommodate common violations of constant discounted utility. It was shown that the functional forms in these models can easily be characterized by conditions based on present value.
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