En uygun hayat sigortası poliçesi seçimini sağlayan bir karar modeli
A Decision model for selecting the optimum insurance policy
- Tez No: 46360
- Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. RAMAZAN EVREN
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Endüstri ve Endüstri Mühendisliği, Sigortacılık, Industrial and Industrial Engineering, Insurance
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1995
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 147
Özet
ÖZET Birinci bölümde sigortanın genel tanımı ve önemi kısaca anlatılmıştır. Çalışmanın ikinci bölümünde sigortacılık kavranılan üzerinde durulmuş ve temel ilkelerden bahsedilmiştir. Sigortanın devreye girmesi için gerekler anlatılmış ve bir sistem yaklaşımı içinde konu ortaya konmuştur. Bu alandaki sayısal yöntemler ve temel sigortacılık konulan kavramsal anlamda verilmiştir. Sigortaların genel sınıflandırması yapılmıştır. Hayat sigortacılığı tanımı, türleri, işlevleri olarak üçüncü bölümde anlatılmıştır. Hayat sigortasının bireysel ve toplumsal anlamdaki önemi vurgulanmış ve getirilen tanımlanmıştır. Sektörün dünyada ve ülkemizdeki sorunlan literatürde yapılan çalışmalarla derlenmiş, örneklerle anlatılmaya çalışılmıştır. Yüksek ve değişken enflasyon, tahsilat, poliçe iptal oranlan, risk sınıflandırması, ürün türleri ve eksiklikleri, acente uygulamalarındaki yanlışlıklar gibi sorunların sektör gelişimindeki olumsuz etkileri ortaya konmuş ve bu konudaki sayısal çözüm teknikleri anlatılmıştır. Aynca 20001i yıllarda hayat sigortacılığının Türkiye'deki görüntüsü gözönüne alınmıştır. Dördüncü bölümde açıklanan sorunların poliçe seçimi ve alımı kararına etkileri ve en iyi hayat sigortası poliçesinin seçim problemi beşinci bölümde anlatılmıştır. Bu konuda yapılmış çalışmalar derlenmiştir. Ve karar destek sisteminin hayat sigortası poliçesinin seçim ve alım kararını çözebileceği görüşüne vanlmıştır. Altıncı bölüm, belirlenen karar problemine uygulanacak olan karar destek sisteminin açıklaması ile başlamaktadır. Bunun için genel olarak karar verme analizinden ve karar verme yöntemlerinden bahsedilmiştir. Kullanılacak olan Analitik Hiyerarşi Yöntemi ise ayrıntılı olarak anlatılmıştır. Geliştirilen modele ait ikili karşılaştırma matrislerini doldurmak için 1045 kişilik bir anket çalışması yapılmış ve sonuçlan grafiklerle gösterilmiştir. İkili karşılaştırma matrisleri“Export Choice”yazılımı kullanılarak çözülmüş ve yorumlanmıştır. Daha sonra ihmal edilebilecek bazı kriterler modelden çıkanlmış ve yeni bir model geliştirilmiştir. Aynı yazılım ile ikinci modelde çözülmüş ve en sonunda modelin duyarlılık analizi yapılmıştır. xu
Özet (Çeviri)
A DECISION MODEL FOR SELECTING THE OPTIMUM LIFE INSURANCE POLICY SUMMARY All development indicators are highly tied to the implementation of communal division concept. This concept is constituted of; distribution of income, sharing of economic troubles and opportunities, human rights and freedom and taking communal risks as well. Risks are threating human life and his environment. This threat is directed to; movables and real estates, lifeless and alive existence in various proportions at different times. To avoid all these risks to some extent and compensation of losses are the topics of insurance. We call as insurance; buying or selling determined risks. This thesis is contains 6 chapters and it starts with the presentation of insurance sector under the division of life and non-life. First chapter exposes the aim of the thesis. Occurrence of risks and their negative effects and collapses in both social and economic in individual meaning, and utilization of funds accumulated by premiums and its economic benefits showing the importance of insurance sector are also explained in this chapter. General definitions and concepts of insurance topic are handled in the second chapter. Requisites of insurance becoming are clearly narrated, those are the following; - Random emergence of losses, - Becoming together of determined risk owner units, - Measurability of loses, - Measurability of loses in terms of money. Besides the headings explained above, private insurance and social insurance concept are clarified and a comparison between them is also provided. Division of insurance is firstly segmented as private and social then further divided to subgroups. Private insurances could be handled as life insurances and non-life insurances. Insurance can be accepted as service explained in a contract made between insurer and insured. This contact determines possible risks and defines rules. Quantitative methods developed in insurance, modeling of system risk process, correlation between modification number and loss amounts distribution and its validation to real data, testing of insurance company responsibility performance, evaluation of new knowledge, setting up a new bonus- malus system and its behavioral investigation are handled in the same chapter. Risks is a natural event where persons and organizations encounter. However competing with risks is handled in risk management concept general tendency is turned to handle risk with in insurance topic and utilize operational research techniques in solving risk problems. There are two methods; individual risk model and collective risk model, to determine risk processes. In the first model, from first insurer point of view; insured existence, from re insured point of view, first insurer are the risk makers. In the second model all risks set in other word portfolio are handling. In risk calculation, variable numbers of occurred events, frequency and loss amounts are forming the first components. xuiFrequency dimension of risk calculation is necessary and very critical components for pricing in any insurance relationship. The latest probability distribution of losses is a composite distribution and forms the basis of management risk from insurer point of view. Risk calculation generally, covers the current period's cash flow values. Thinking risk calculation according to components that make contributions to the risk is found beneficiary since it serves to risk diminishing and even eliminating. The basic rule in premium determination is the co-value rule. According to that insurers are detennining a“pure”premium which is equal to the sum of expected average loss and safety amount in order to compensate production, marketing expenditures and finally profit share. In life insurences pure premium are found from both mortality tables and estimated interest rates. Bonus-malus systems are particularly using in vehicle insurances and are based to the old years damage amounts. Reassurance is the partial risk transfer from insurer to another insurer. Transferring risk in such a way give the main insurer company to the possibility of accepting higher risks and share them with other companies. Thus its market share will be increased. Reassurance diminishes damage variances and enhance the efficiency of company and protect it against possible big hazards. When transferring risks a portion of the premiums is also transferred, thus portfolio management becomes important. Therefore the type and the level of reassurance should be well determined. In chapter three, life insurance systems are described. Dealing with human life and serving to take precautions for possible risks; life insurance is also useful in making profit for personal savings. Thus long terms funds are supplied to the general economy and by filling the lack of social security institutions great contributions are made. As it can be understood from the definition life insurance is contributing to the economy via creating funds ready to use. Basic functions of the life insurance can be grouped under six headings: 1- Life insurance as a significant saving source, 2- Life insurance as a preventor of socio-economic collapses and losses, 3- Life insurance as a social-life level raiser, 4- Life insurance as a provider of credit possibilities to entrepreneur, 5- Life insurance as a tax source, 6- Life insurance as a different sector in the economy. Those functions either individually or generally handled, show the great importance of life insurance. According to finance planners insurance should be viewed as an investment tool. As for the specialist they say that life insurance industry makes better and higher quality investments than banks. Since life insurance endeavors could be expanded to wide populations they may collect a great portion of the income either from inside or outside of the country. These amounts when invested properly are increasing gross national product When national income are augmented people can save higher amounts. From satisfying long term needs life insurance became a good and adopted alternative. Economic losses preventor role of life insurance is particularly emerging in paying damages. Social life high level mean sufficient income, satisfactory personnel maintenance, appropriate product and service mixture and finally having some kind of legal easiness. From financial point of view in order to increase life quality life insurers could make several advises concerning production and planning topics. Besides credibility in every insurance branches life insurances are the most important need of business world. xivLife insurances are highly contributing to tax incomes which have great importance from general economy point of view. Making income or company taxes in balance sheets, they pay taxes via investments and force to be paid transfer taxes via indemnities. We can do general classification of the life insurance in this way: *) Traditional whole life insurances; Covering a determined period not less than one year. They can be grouped under two categories. 1) Fixed duration insurance, 2) Adjustable insurance. *) Interest sensitive whole life insurance; A kind of insurance which pay accumulated amount or annual retired income to insurer. When they are transitory they only contain addition component, otherwise they propose retirement programs. *) Whole life insurance; A kind of insurance giving total accumulated money or retirement salary to alive insured or dead indemnify to the family of insured or incapability indemnify to handicapped insured. In fourth chapter, problems and suggested related solutions of life insurance are investigated. When we consider preparation types of life insurances we notice that some of them have only handled indemnities, some of them have only handled additional proportions. However for the sake of economy additional proportion's aimed for long runs are more important. Reasons of that are the following; - Life insurance additions are for the long terms and based on a contract. So it can be said that they are more consistent. - The pushing force of that alternative appears in the timeless deads and provide a protection factor to the family. - Generally up to the dead of the insured people do not touch the additions and only use it for offsetting some expenditures. Factor influencing the development of life insurances could be grouped under the below headings; - Money collection problem, - Policy canceling ratios, - Deficiencies in risk classification and pricing, - Policy types and their deficiencies, - Errors caused by the agencies. Life insurances saving tools as well as they are protection tools. In unstable economics: in other words in fluctuating inflationary situation insurance prices should be leveled according to these conditions since in the new product planning phase pricing decision are made under the assumptions of fixed premium and fixed inflation. The competitive environment of the sector has provided high flexibility in the payments of insureds. Unfortunately those have the negative effects on the insureds in the sense of lagged payments in high rates. In determined period lasting insurance policies canceling before the end of the duration might seem to the favor of the company, however since it prevent the utilization of long terms funds. It is not a wanted situation. When this action of canceling become to early even the xvcost of the insurance are not off set. That is why it is tried to collect annual premiums as early as possible. Life insurance premiums, in the world are calculated due to purchasing age of the insured and due to the total insurance duration. However in our country premiums are calculated not according to the age but according to the portfolio's average age. This behavior might threat the future of the company. The appropriateness of the policy can be calculated according to the below criterions: - Appropriateness to the assurance amount, - Insensitive to inflation, - Appropriate payment type, - Correct pricing, Those factors considered in the new product planning phase can fill market, demand. Defects caused by the wide authorization given agencies could be adjusted by directing customers and well describing topics to them. First operational research tool was used in the life insurance area is the simulation. The point that we have come today is the life insurance industry is maintaining its role of savings getting weaker then the past. * In the fifth chapter appropriate selection methods and related problems are investigated. By the end of 1980's insurance companies have directed their sales with the help of their agencies, purchasers customs and social values. All diversifications and products designs are based to the insurers opinions. However at the end of 1980's insurers have realized the importance of customers views and the need of new product introducing based on these views. From insured point of view the main interest are focused on insurance buying and indemnity paying. From insurer point of view problems are focused on risk science, premium calculation and marketing. For the insurer one of the targets is the calculation of premiums to be paid according to the proposed conditions. The key components of that calculation is the net premium which assume the continuity of contracts in the long run. All the top of the decision support system users seller of life insurances are present. Those systems are very useful and propose several alternatives to purchasers in order to find the optimum. These are no argument what proof the usefulness of the decision support systems. However general view the easiness of the potential buyers has enhanced via decision support systems. Decision making is the selection of one or more choice among the alternatives that is the most suitable to adjectives. Decision analysis approach is constituted by steps and stages which are precisely determined. These stages are the following; 1- Structuring of problems, 2- Determination of results, 3- Determination of probabilities and alternatives, 4- Assessment of alternatives, 5- Sensitivity analysis, xvi6- Selection. To reach a solution that satisfy restrictions occurred by environment, process and resources, decision maker, has to consider several critters. In classic mathematical optimization discipline decision making problem is potentially modeled by single objective function to be either maximized or minimized and plural restrictive equations. Solutions that satisfy restrictions and optimize objective function is the best solution. Single objective decision making is the simple type of decision making problem. It is probable to find out best solution for that single objective. As for the multiple criteria decision making it generally appears when various objectives exist and conflict. It can be defined as determination of a choice from a set of choice, suitable to an objective or criterion. That is why clear definition of choices, objectives or criteria increase the efficiency of solution. In that context the elements of multiple criteria decision making problem could be summarized as the following. a) Set of alternatives, b) Set of criteria, c) Set of solution, d) Preferences of decision maker. In the classification of multiple criteria decision making solution methods plural factors could be considered. The number of decision makers, the structure of problem such as deterministic or probabilistic, the number of choices, in other words finite or infinite number of choices, the existence or non-existence of interactivity among the decision maker and solution method, linearity or non-linearity of restrictive equations or objective functions are the essential factor to be considered in the classification of multiple criteria decision making methods: - Decision oriented approaches, - Decision process oriented approaches. Another approach takes into account two important dimensions of multiple criteria decision making problem: - The nature of results, - The nature of productive system. Consequently multiple criteria decision making problem is basically divided by two main sections: - Multiple attribute decision making, - Multiple criteria decision making. Most methods used in decision making problems are based on acute rules. Consequently decision maker takes more healthy decision in the light of these rules. Since the attributes of environment and decision maker differ according to problems, the situations and methods of decision making differ. These methods vary according to; - The prefence of decision maker concerning objectives, - Beneficiary relation among objectives and qualities. xviiIt can be seen in the literature several papers concerning classification of multiple criteria decision making methods. Methods considering the preference of decision maker concerning objectives are summarized in four groups: 1- Methods in which no clear knowledge is asked from the decision maker, 2- Methods in which preference knowledge is asked from the decision maker at the very beginning, 3- Methods in which preference knowledge is given in the progressive stages, 4- Methods in which preference knowledge is added to system lately. Analytic Hierarchy Process instead to urge people using a precise method, provides them the possibility of recognize their own system and in such a way support them to reach to better decision levels. Decision applications of AHP are carried out in two sections; hierarchical design and assessment. AHP is the tool used in such a field that begins from simple personal decisions and goes up to complex and high density decisions. The success of the method is the result of its simplicity and robustness. Axioms of the method are the following; - Mutual comparisons, - Homogenuosity, - Independence, - Expectancies. AHP is a method that gives successful results in the solution of socio-economical problems, moreover it guides decision makers to choice the best alternatives. Decision making method described in the last chapter of this dissertation is applied to the handled problem. At the very beginning an AHP model constituted by six levels is built up and pairwise comparison matrix are fulfilled. To do that a wide questionnaire set is used. Benefiting from a broad portfolio or dabase of a private assurance company 1045 questionnaire are evaluated. Then the matrix are solved by using a expert choice software package and solutions are assessed. Negligible critters are throwed away, a second model is built up and solved likewise. Finally related sensitivity analysis are made and probable effects of changes on the results are assessed. Inferences obtained from this dissertation could be summarized as follows; - Developed model offers potential life insurance buyers to make the best choice among the alternatives. Model considers both policy attributes and buyers' characteristics. Thus it can be argue that the model is multilayer and very comprehensive since it serves to various professions' groups and support their decisions. - This dissertation also direct life insurance marketers and sellers, since the model shows how to reach various subgroups of population. Consequently life insurance policy should be presented how and when would be determined and selling contract would be signed. - When we consider dynamic dimension of the model, particularly results of questionnaire, we realize focus points of people thus we notice the needs of new type of policies. In other words model urges insurance companies to make researches on new topics. The development xviiiof policy attributes is very important from target people point of view, consequently only demanded policies and articles are offered to buyers. - In the proposed AHP model various alternatives concerning payment terms of policies and their options are developed. These alternatives are highly important in the investment decision of insurance companies. In securities investments duration cash flow, premium type are the important factors that stresses model meaning fullness. - Life insurance products should be developed and renewed contiguously. This is very important when we consider presentation of policies. Model being developed in the light of customer views would be more complete and would satisfy customer requirements, moreover such a model will direct actuers and marketing people. - It will be easier to approach various professions1 subgroups by using such a model, since our decision model enlighten the way to reaching target people. Consequently it is highly recommended to use our proposed model, particularly profession mentioned in this dissertation. Potentially our proposed model has such a flexibility that it can be used by any life insurance company and suits to any customer profile. Thus life insurance sales would be increased, and personal and social expectancies would be satisfied at the maximum levels. xix
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