The Impact of political instability on gross capital flows:empirical evidence from developing countries
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 725408
- Danışmanlar: Belirtilmemiş.
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, Maliye, Siyasal Bilimler, Economics, Finance, Political Science
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2016
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: University of Oxford
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 28
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
Does higher political instability increase the risk of capital flight from the country? This paper seeks to establish a causal relation between political uncertainty and the extreme episodes of capital flow. By developing a unique composite variable of contested elections, and using the available data on coups d'état, incidence of political transitions and number of fatalities caused by terrorist attacks, the paper assesses the political instability for a given country. The data on the quarterly capital flows covers 60 countries, of which 19 are non-high income countries, from 1980 (at the earliest) through 2009. The baseline non-linear (logit) fixed effects model shows that the incidence of contested elections leads to sharp decreases of gross outflows (retrenchment) for both samples of high-income and low-income countries. This paper provides a number of important stylized facts on the dynamic behaviour of gross capital flows by domestic and foreign agents: (i) gross capital flows are pro-cyclical, (ii) total gross capital flows by residents retrench significantly during crises, (iii) crises affect foreign and domestic agents differently. In particular, I find no evidence of fire sales of domestic assets to foreign investors, or domestic capital flight. The evidence also runs contrary to the view that foreign investors would shy away due to domestic political instabilities. Instead, the evidence suggests that crises affect foreigners and domestic agents asymmetrically. These results advance the previous literature in two ways; firstly by distinguishing the behaviours of foreign and domestic agents and secondly by focusing on the political instability factors, rather than purely economic considerations. The results provide insights for the studies on the political economy of developing countries.
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