是时候建造核电站了吗?核能消耗对经济增长的影响
Is it right time to build nuclear power plants? Effect of nuclear energy consumption on economic growth
- Tez No: 780975
- Danışmanlar: Belirtilmemiş.
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Enerji, Nükleer Mühendislik, Energy, Nuclear Engineering
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2023
- Dil: İngilizce
- Üniversite: Peking University
- Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.
Özet
The target of this study is to analyze the effect of nuclear energy consumption (NEC) on economic growth. Another target of this study is to help policymakers to decide on nuclear energy investment in their countries. This study also mentions the renewable energy consumption (REC) on economic growth to compare with NEC and Turkey's NEC on the Turkish GDP in the long run as a case study. This study separates conducted countries as developed and developing ones and examines them separately to extend previously conducted research on the effect of NEC on economic growth. Countries are separated as developed and developing by the classification of the United Nations, OECD, IMF and Worldbank. The study covers the period from 1993 to 2019, and the data includes 28 nuclear energy-consuming countries, which consists of both developing and developed countries. Parallel to classical economic growth theory, besides than variable of share of NEC in total energy, labor and fixed capital formation variables are used as a control variable. Panel Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) and the Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (Panel DOLS) models are applied to the study. Panel ARDL model is considered as main model and Panel DOLS model is applied for robustness check. The findings indicate that NEC has a significant and positive effect on economic growth in both developed and developing countries and has a more significant effect in developing countries than in developed ones. The findings also show a unilateral relationship between NEC to economic growth in developing countries and a bilateral relationship between NEC and economic growth in developed countries. To ensure the reliability of the work, in developing countries, China and India are removed, and the model is run again. Since China and India are big countries, their economic growth might be affected by something else. Also, these countries expected to account for the majority of the expected increase in nuclear energy in the developing ABSTRACT III world. They are prime markets for nuclear energy imports and their domestic nuclear projects have been qualified achievements at best. However, results of the model without China and India give similar results with China and India included. Moreover, the model is rerun with the variable of share of REC in the total energy to compare its effect on the economic growth with NEC. The result shows that NEC has a more significant effect on economic growth than REC in both developed and developing countries. Finally, a case study is held in this thesis about the future economic effect of a nuclear power plant (NPP) investment under construction in Akkuyu, Turkey. There were two approaches in this case study. The first one is that by using the coefficients of the Panel ARDL model, Turkish GDP increase is estimated in the long run. The second one is by using the cost and benefit of the project, the Net Present Value of the investment is calculated, and with that value, its effect on the future Turkish GDP is estimated. According to the Panel ARDL coefficient, Turkish GDP is expected to increase by 8,11% after the construction, and according to the Net Present Value, Turkish GDP is expected to increase by 7,65%, which is a very close estimation with the Panel ARDL approach. Shortly, the results of the case study show that Akkuyu Nuclear Energy Investment will increase the Turkish GDP by around 8% in the longrun.
Özet (Çeviri)
这项研究的目的是调查核能消耗对经济增长的影响。这项研究的另一个目标是 帮助决策者决定在他们国家的核能投资。这项研究还提及在经济增长中的可再生能源 消耗，并从长远来参考土耳其国内生产总值的情况下，将其与核能消耗以及土耳其的 核能消耗进行了比较。 这项研究将发达国家与发展中国家分开进行，以扩大先前进行的有关核能消耗 对经济增长影响的研究，并分别对其进行审查。根据联合国、经合组织、国际货币基 金组织和世界银行的分类，国家被分为发达国家和发展中国家。该研究涵盖 1993 年至 2019 年，包括 28 个核能消耗国的数据，包括发达国家和发展中国家。 在这项调查中 与经典经济增长理论相似，除了核能消耗在总能源中所占份额的变量外，还将劳动力 和固定资本形成变量用作控制变量。 这项调查将面板自动回归分布式滞后（Panel ARDL）和面板动态普通最小二乘 （Panel DOLS）模型应用于研究。这项调查将面板自动回归分布式滞后模型作为主要 模型，和面板动态普通最小二乘模型用于稳健性检验。研究结果表明，核能消耗对发 达国家和发展中国家的经济增长都具有重大而积极的影响，对发展中国家的影响要大 于发达国家。研究结果还表明，发展中国家核能消费与经济增长之间存在单边关系， 发达国家核能消费与经济增长之间存在双边关系。为了确保研究的可靠性，在发展中 国家，中国和印度均已删除，然后再次运行该模型。由于中国和印度是大国，它们的 经济增长可能会受到其他因素的影响。此外，这些国家预计将占发展中世界核能预期 增长的大部分。 它们是核能进口的主要市场，其国内核项目充其量是合格的成果。但 是，不包括中国和印度的模型结果与包含中国和印度的模型得出的结果相似。此外， 使用可再生能源消耗在总能源中所占份额的变量重新运行该模型，以比较其对经济增 长和核能消耗的影响。结果表明，无论是发达国家还是发展中国家，核能消耗对经济 增长的影响都大于可再生能源消耗对经济增长的影响。 最后，本文针对土耳其阿克库尤（Akkuyu）在建核电站投资的未来经济影响进 行了案例研究。 在此案例研究中，有两种方法。 第一个是，通过使用 Panel ARDL 模 型的系数，从长期来看土耳其的国内生产总值增长是可以估算的。 第二个是通过使用 项目的成本和收益，计算投资的净现值，并用该值估算其对未来土耳其国内生产总值 的影响。 根据 ARDL 系数，通过使用 Panel ARDL 模型方法 , 预计建造后土耳其的国内 生产总值将增长 8.11％，根据净现值，土耳其的国内生产总值预计将增长 7.65％。不 久，案例研究的结果表明，从长远来看，阿库尤核能投资将使土耳其的 国内生产总值 增长 8% 左右。 关键词：核能, 再生能源, 经济增长, 阿克库尤, 将面板自动回归分布式滞后, 面板动 态普通最小二乘
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KÜBRA DEMİR JIANG
Yüksek Lisans
Çince
2019
Karşılaştırmalı EdebiyatShanghai International Studies University {Shanghai Municipality 上海市}YRD. DOÇ. DR. ZHU QİNGXİANG
