Gemi değerleme sürecinde kullanılan faktörlerin Aralık Tip-2 Bulanık AHP yöntemi ile ağırlıklandırılması
Evaluation of the factors used in the ship valuation process with Interval Type-2 Fuzzy AHP method
- Tez No: 854305
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ. DR. KADİR ÇİÇEK
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Denizcilik, Marine
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2024
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Deniz Ulaştırma Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Deniz Ulaştırma İşletme Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
- Sayfa Sayısı: 63
Özet
Dünyamızda siyasi, ekonomik ve ticari gelişmelere paralel olarak küresel yük taşımacılığında deniz yolu taşımacılığının önemi her geçen gün daha da artmaktadır. Öyle ki deniz yolu taşımacılığında dünya ticaret filosunun büyüklüğü 2.166.510 milyar DWT'a ulaşmış bulunmaktadır. Küresel yük taşımacılığını etkileyen dinamiklerin yanı sıra, teknolojik gelişmeler, değişen ekonomik koşullar ve çevresel duyarlılık talebi de denizyolu taşımacılığını yapısal değişikliklere zorlamaktadır. Bu durum gemi tasarımlarında ve gemi üzerine donatılan makine ve sistemlerde tasarımsal ve teknolojik değişimler beraberinde getirmektedir. Dolayısı ile, farklı tip, tasarım, makine ve sisteme sahip gemilerin satın alım süreçlerinde ortaya çıkan gemi değerleme probleminin sağlıklı bir şekilde yapılabilmesi gemi sahipleri açısından önem arz eden bir konu haline gelmiş bulunmaktadır. Gemi değerleme, denizcilik endüstrisinin önemli bir unsuru olan gemi varlıklarının ekonomik değerlerini belirleme ve anlama amacı taşıyan kritik bir süreçtir. Denizcilik endüstrisinin karmaşıklığı ve sürekli değişen doğası nedeniyle, gemi değerleme süreci birçok faktörün dikkate alınmasını gerektirir. Bu faktörler gemilerin teknik özelliklerinden ekonomik koşullara kadar uzanmakta olup, değerlemeyi etkileyen önemli değişkenleri kapsamaktadır. Bu endüstri içerisinde talebe dayalı olarak çeşitli gemi türleri ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu tez , gemi değerleme sürecindeki belirsizlikleri azaltmak ve değerlendirme sürecini daha sağlam ve ölçülebilir hale getirmek amacıyla bu yöntemin kullanılabilirliğini göstermeyi amaçlamaktadır. Özetle, gemi değerleme sürecinde faktörlerin değerlendirilmesinde Aralık Tip-2 Bulanık AHP yönteminin pratik uygulanabilirliğini ve etkinliğini araştırmakla kalmayıp gemi değerlemesi alanındaki uzmanlara, denizcilik endüstrisindeki karar alıcılarına ve araştırmacılara, daha etkili ve güvenilir gemi değerleme süreçleri geliştirmelerine yardımcı olacak önemli bir araç sunmayı amaçlamaktadır.Bu çalışma kapsamında gemi değerleme probleminin çözümüne katkı sağlamak amacı ile gemi değerleme faktörleri aralık tip-2 bulanık AHP yöntemi ile incelenerek, ağırlıklandırılmış ve önceliklendirilmiştir. Uzman görüşlerini entegre ederek ve değerlendirmelerdeki belirsizlikleri ele alarak, bu yöntem gemi değerleme sürecinin karmaşık ve çok yönlü doğasını daha kapsamlı bir şekilde anlamamızı sağlar. Yapılan analiz ve değerlendirme neticesinde, gemi değerleme sürecinde etkin rol oynayan faktörler belirlenmiş ve ilgili problemin çözümüne katkı sağlayabilecek sonuçlar elde edilmiştir.
Özet (Çeviri)
In parallel with the political, economic and commercial developments in our world, the importance of maritime transportation in global freight transportation is increasing day by day. So much so that the size of the world trade fleet in maritime transport has reached 2,199,107 billion DWT. In addition to the dynamics affecting global freight transportation, technological developments, changing economic conditions and the demand for environmental sensitivity are forcing structural changes in maritime transport. This situation brings about design and technological changes in ship designs and the machines and systems equipped on the ship. Therefore, it has become an important issue for ship owners to make the ship valuation problem that arises in the purchase processes of ships with different types, designs, machinery and systems in a healthy way. Ship valuation is a critical process aimed at determining and understanding the economic values of ship assets, which are a significant element of the maritime industry. Due to the complexity and constantly changing nature of the maritime industry, the ship valuation process requires consideration of numerous factors. These factors range from the technical specifications of ships to economic conditions and encompass important variables that affect valuation. Within this industry, various types of ships have emerged based on demand. Second-hand ship valuation is a significant subject within the maritime industry. The second-hand ship market holds great importance for shipowners, investors, and maritime sector experts. However, there are certain deficiencies in the literature regarding second-hand ship valuation. Firstly, there is limited detailed examination in the literature regarding the methods and techniques used in the process of second-hand ship valuation. Given various valuation approaches, market trends, factors such as ship type, age, and operational conditions, there is a need for more studies in this field. Secondly, there are deficiencies in identifying and evaluating the parameters that need to be considered in the process of second-hand ship valuation. Among these parameters are factors such as the impact of the ship's age, its technical specifications, market demand, and economic fluctuations in the maritime industry. However, there is insufficient detailed analysis in the literature regarding the effects of these factors on second-hand ship valuation and how these factors should be assessed. Thirdly, there are shortcomings in the accuracy and reliability of the data used in the process of second-hand ship valuation. Limited accessibility to real-time ship market data can affect the accuracy of the valuation process. Further research and identification of reliable data sources in this regard are essential. In conclusion, the deficiencies in the literature on second-hand ship valuation necessitate more comprehensive and in-depth research in this field. The ship valuation process requires an analysis of a series of factors, and weighting these factors is a critical step to obtain accurate results. Among these factors, there are numerous variables based on the ship's age, size, technical condition, market conditions, and many other features. Weighting the factors is important to accurately calculate the impact of each factor on the evaluation. Once the factors in ship valuation are identified, weighting methods are employed to determine the order of importance of these factors. Weighting is the process of assigning weights to the factors while determining their impact on the ship's value. These weights signify the contribution of each factor to the ship's value. The complexity of the second-hand ship market and the multitude of variables that need consideration in the valuation process highlight the xx significance of research in this area. More extensive studies conducted in this domain could contribute to the development of more accurate and reliable valuation methods for stakeholders in the maritime industry. AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process), complex multi-criteria decision-making method used in decision-making processes. Interval Type-2 Fuzzy AHP expands this process by allowing the handling of fuzzy sets in a more complex and flexible structure. The steps to be applied in this approach begin with the selection of the method to be applied in ship valuation. The second step continues with the determination of criteria, and these criteria are numerically ranked according to the comparison scale. Comparison matrices are created, and the Interval Type-2 Fuzzy AHP method is utilized. Following this step, the determination of the most effective criteria is completed with the calculated fuzzy weights. The limited research in the literature related to second-hand ship valuation necessitates more in-depth and comprehensive studies in this field. The complexity of the secondhand ship market and the numerous variables to be considered in the valuation process emphasize the importance of research in this area. More extensive studies in this field could contribute to the development of more accurate and reliable valuation methods for stakeholders in the maritime industry. The ship valuation process should be carefully managed, especially when considering such challenges. It is a field that requires expertise, and the participation of experienced professionals is important to ensure accurate and reliable valuation. Determining an expert team in ship valuation studies is a critical step for an accurate and reliable valuation process. Selecting an expert team for ship valuation involves identifying professionals specialized in maritime matters, competent in their field, holding relevant certifications, having experience in independent valuation processes, staying up-to-date with current market conditions, regulations, and technological developments, and having sufficient references. The correct identification of an expert team is considered to contribute to the completion of the ship valuation process reliably and objectively. The ship valuation process requires the analysis of a series of factors, and the weighting of these factors is a critical step to obtain accurate results. Among these factors, there are numerous variables based on the ship's age, size, technical condition, market conditions, and many other features. Weighting these factors is important to accurately calculate the impact of each factor on the valuation. Once the factors in ship valuation are identified, weighting methods are employed to determine the order of importance of these factors. This process involves assigning weights to the factors, thereby delineating their respective contributions to the overall value of the ship. After identifying the factors in ship valuation, weighting methods are used to determine the order of importance of these factors. This process involves assigning weights to the factors, representing the contribution of each factor to the ship's value. The Interval Type-2 Fuzzy AHP method will be used as the weighting method in ship valuation. This method allows for the subjective evaluation of different factors' importance and determines their weights while evaluating the significance of various factors. This thesis aims to provide a significant tool by applying the Interval Type-2 Fuzzy AHP method to make the ship valuation process more precise and yield more accurate results. It aims to assist experts in the field of ship valuation, decision-makers in the maritime industry, and researchers in developing more effective and reliable ship valuation processes. Within the scope of this study, in order to contribute to the solution of the ship valuation problem, ship valuation factors were examined, weighted and prioritized by the interval type-2 fuzzy AHP method. the Interval Type-2 Fuzzy AHP method offers a structured and systematic approach to evaluate ship valuation factors while accounting for uncertainties and imprecise information. By integrating expert xxi judgments and handling vagueness in assessments, this method provides a more comprehensive understanding of the complex and multifaceted nature of ship valuation. As a result of the analysis and evaluation, the factors that play an active role in the ship valuation process were determined and results that could contribute to the solution of the relevant problem were obtained.
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