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Natech kazalarının risk yönetimi açısından incelenmesi

Investigation of Natech accidents in terms of riskmanagement

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  1. Tez No: 913988
  2. Yazar: TOLGA UÇ
  3. Danışmanlar: PROF. DR. DİDEM SALOĞLU DERTLİ
  4. Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
  5. Konular: Kazalar, Accidents
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 2025
  8. Dil: Türkçe
  9. Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
  10. Enstitü: Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Afet ve Acil Durum Yönetimi Ana Bilim Dalı
  12. Bilim Dalı: Afet Yönetimi Bilim Dalı
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: 142

Özet

Afetlerin meydana geldiği konum ve etkilenen çevre bölgeler için uzun süre etkisi gözlenebilecek ikincil tehditler ve riskler meydana gelebilmektedir. Bu tehditler ve riskler özellikle endüstriyel alanda yapılaşmanın yoğun olduğu bölgelerde olası bir yıkıcı deprem senaryonun yaşanması halinde ikincil afetlerin oluşma ihtimalini kuvvetlendirmektedir. Büyük şehirlerin barındırmış olduğu endüstriyel tesisler ve bu tesislerin merkezi yerleşim alanlarının yoğunlaşmış olduğu bölgelerde faaliyet göstermesi, olası bir yıkıcı deprem senaryosu ile birlikte yangın ve patlama gibi ikincil afetleri de beraberinde getireceği açıktır. Endüstriyel tesislerde farklı alanlara çok sayıda hammadde, yarı mamul ve mamul kullanılmakta olup bu maddelerin olası bir depremin domino etkisi ile ikincil bir afet olarak yangın ve patlama riski oluşturması ve bu riskin yaşanması literatürde son yıllarda Natech kavramı olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Bu tez çalışmasının amacı, Natech kazalarının meydana gelme potansiyelini değerlendirerek bu konudaki risk analiz metotları ve konu ile alakalı yapılmış olan detaylı araştırmaları sunmaktır. Sunulan çalışmada, geçmişte yaşanmış Natech kazaları ve bu kazaların sonucunda oluşturulmuş raporlar incelenmiş, bu kazaların çevre üzerindeki etkileri ve Natech kazaları üzerinde kullanılabilecek risk analizi metotları derlenmiştir. Bu bağlamda, Natech kazalarını tetikleyecek öncül afetler meydana gelmeden önce kentsel bölgelerdeki tesislerin Natech risk analizlerinin yapılması önerilmektedir. Doğa kaynaklı afetlerin tetikleyebileceği Natech kazaları sonucunda hayati riskler ve çevre sorunları ile karşılaşılmaması, afet sonrası sürdürülebilir bir müdahale ve iyileştirme sürecinin oluşturulması ve diğer ekonomik ve sosyolojik kayıpların minimize edilmesi için Natech risk analizi ve Natech risk yönetimi çalışmalarının yapılması ve sonuçların değerlendirilmesi önem arz etmektedir. Sunulan tez çalışması kapsamında derlenen bilgiler ışığında Natech risk analizi ve risk yönetimi kavramları hakkında gelişmiş bir bilgi sunulmaktadır.

Özet (Çeviri)

Secondary threats and risks may occur for the location where the disasters occur and for the affected neighbourhoods, which may have long-lasting effects. These threats and risks strengthen the possibility of occurrence of secondary disasters in case of a possible destructive earthquake scenario especially in the regions where industrial construction is dense. It is clear that the industrial facilities located in big cities and the fact that these facilities operate in areas where central settlements are concentrated will bring secondary disasters such as fire and explosion together with a possible destructive earthquake scenario. Industrial facilities, such as refining, oil and gas transport and distribution or the production of rare speciality chemicals, are critical to human well-being and the proper functioning of society. In industrial facilities, a large number of raw materials, intermediate products, and products are used in different areas, and the risk of fire and explosion of these materials as a secondary disaster with the domino effect of a possible earthquake and the occurrence of this risk is defined as the Natech concept in the literature in recent years. A Natech accident (short for Natural-Technological Accident) refers to an event where natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, or other natural disasters, trigger technological accidents, such as chemical spills, industrial explosions, or the release of hazardous substances from infrastructure like power plants, refineries, or factories. These accidents often involve the combination of environmental factors and human-made systems, and they can cause significant harm to both people and the environment. The raw materials, intermediate products, products, hazardous chemicals, and explosive components in the mentioned industrial facilities have the potential to turn into secondary disasters, especially during production/synthesis and storage stages. Especially after disasters such as earthquakes, the risk of disaster increases with the damage to the reactors and tanks where they are located. A powerful earthquake may cause a refinery's storage tanks to rupture, spilling hazardous chemicals into the surrounding area. In addition, a flood could overwhelm a chemical plant, leading to the leakage of toxic substances or the breach of safety protocols, such as the release of gas or other dangerous materials and a hurricane might damage pipelines, leading to gas or oil leaks, or it might disrupt power to safety systems in industrial facilities, causing a disaster. As it is known that industrial activities provide important and necessary goods and services to society. When the past Natech accidents presented in this thesis are analysed, Natech accidents have highlighted the vulnerability of these industrial facilities to natural hazard effects, with consequences ranging from health effects and environmental degradation to economic losses. For major accidents, the impacts on the economy can reach global dimensions, causing shortages of raw materials or intermediate products in manufacturing industries. In addition, Natech risk is bound to increase in the future. On the one hand, worldwide industrialization is increasing the number of technological hazards, while climate change is affecting the intensity and frequency of hydrometeorological hazards such as floods, heavy rainfall or storms. On the other hand, earthquake, which is the subject of this thesis, appears as the natural disasters that trigger Natech accidents the most. In some countries and for some industrial activities, existing legal frameworks explicitly address the risk of natural hazard impacts on hazardous facilities and in principle make an important contribution to industrial safety. However, it is vital that authorities ensure that these regulations are implemented and that they are effective in reducing Natech risks. Natech risk analysis helps to identify safety gaps on site and the relevant risk reduction priorities. But, there are no consolidated methodologies for Natech risk assessment. The accident scenarios identified in the risk assessment support land use and emergency planning decisions. The assessment and analysis of Natech risks should take into account the impact of natural disaster severity and frequency, and appropriate actions should be taken when additional vulnerabilities are identified. The adequacy of the design basis of facilities and equipment against the impact of natural disasters should be examined, particularly in light of natural disasters like earthquake. A major limitation of Natech risk reduction studies is the limited availability of data. Besides, there is a tendency among operators of hazardous facilities not to disclose information about accidents for fear of negative consequences for their operations. The aim of this thesis is to evaluate risk for the potential occurrence of possible Natech accidents and to present the risk analysis methods and detailed researches on this subject. In the present study, past Natech accidents and reports generated as a result of these accidents were analysed, the effects of these accidents on the environment and risk analysis methods that can be used on Natech accidents were compiled. Natech risk assessment and analysis refer to the process of evaluating and managing risks associated with technological accidents triggered by natural hazards. These types of accidents pose a unique challenge because they involve both environmental and industrial factors. Conducting a thorough risk assessment can help minimize the potential for disaster and reduce the impacts of such events. There are several methods and approaches used for Natech risk assessment and analysis, and they often draw from both traditional natural hazard risk assessment and industrial hazard risk assessment frameworks. In this context, it is suggested that Natech risk analyses of facilities in urban areas should be performed before the occurrence of precursor disasters that may trigger Natech accidents. It is important to carry out Natech risk analysis and Natech risk management studies and evaluate the results in order to avoid life risks and environmental problems as a result of Natech accidents that may be triggered by natural disasters, to create a sustainable response and recovery process after the disaster and to minimise other economic and sociological losses. In the light of the information compiled within the scope of this thesis, an advanced information about Natech risk analysis and risk management concepts is presented. In the first part of the presented thesis, an introduction is made by mentioning the literature research and the hypothesis created, then the definition of disaster, the effects of disaster and disaster management concepts and general risk analysis methods are examined. In the third part of the study, examples of natech accidents that have occurred in the history of the world and Turkey are mentioned and the triggering disaster situation is examined for each natech accident case type. The thesis continues with the regulatory frameworks on natech risk management, the examination of risk reduction practices in natech cases on a regional basis and the projects and programs implemented internationally in natech risk management and is completed with the compilation of information including risk analysis studies and approaches applied in natech cases and qualitative and quantitative risk analysis methods. The aim of the presented thesis is to increase the level of knowledge on the subject by addressing Natech risk assessment and analysis methods in order to support the reduction of Natech risks. Although nuclear and radiological accidents triggered by natural hazards are also considered as Natech events in principle, the thesis focuses on Natech risk management in the chemical industry. The thesis is also intended to serve as a reference repository and support tool for industry users, government officials, disaster risk reduction practitioners and academics. As a result, the basic threats that industrial facilities pose to environmental safety under normal living conditions, regardless of whether they are located far or close to central living areas, are known. However, if a natural disaster impacts outside normal living conditions occur in these facilities, secondary industrial accidents triggered by this disaster are currently among the possibilities. The impact volume of this situation depends on the size of the possible accident, the type and impact level of the disaster, and the accident will cause material and social losses that cannot be recovered in the long term. Therefore, before such an accident scenario occurs, risk reduction studies such as land planning, landscaping, ensuring the safety of critical equipment, conducting industrial facility area risk assessment, and implementing additional measures and regulations in light of the risk assessment should be implemented on a facility and regional basis.

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