İstanbul ili genelinde yönetilen akifer şarjı (managed aquifer recharge/MAR) potansiyel alanlarının çok kriterli karar verme analizi ile belirlenmesi
Determination of potential areas for managed aquifer recharge (MAR) in Istanbul using multi-criteria decision analysis
- Tez No: 924358
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ. DR. ORKAN ÖZCAN
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Bilim ve Teknoloji, Science and Technology
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2025
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Bilişim Uygulamaları Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Coğrafi Bilgi Teknolojileri Bilim Dalı
- Sayfa Sayısı: 110
Özet
İstanbul gibi yoğun nüfuslu ve hızlı kentleşen bir metropolde, iklim değişikliği, düzensiz yağış rejimleri ve artan su talebi, bu tür yenilikçi yaklaşımların gerekliliğini artırmaktadır. Bu çalışma, İstanbul'un su kaynaklarının sürdürülebilir yönetimi için kapsamlı bir analiz sunarak, Yönetilen Akifer Şarjı (MAR) projelerinin uygulanabilirliğini ortaya koymaktadır. MAR, akiferlerin kontrollü bir şekilde yeniden doldurulması yoluyla yeraltı su rezervlerini artırmayı ve suyun doğal döngüsüne yeniden kazandırılmasını hedeflemektedir. MAR, sadece su kaynaklarının korunmasında değil, aynı zamanda taşkın riskinin azaltılması, yeraltı su seviyelerinin dengelenmesi ve ekosistemlerin korunması gibi çok yönlü faydalar sağlamaktadır. Özellikle ekonomik sürdürülebilirlik açısından, bu tür projeler hem tarım hem de sanayi sektöründe su kaynaklarına erişimi kolaylaştırarak ekonomik faydalar sunmaktadır. Çalışmada, MAR için uygun alanların belirlenmesinde, hidrojeoloji, yükseklik, eğim, arazi kullanımı, yağış, normalleştirilmiş bitki örtüsü farkı indeksi, eğri numarası, yeraltı su seviyesi, drenaj yoğunluğu, toprak tipi ve gibi çok çeşitli kriterler kullanılmıştır. Analitik Hiyerarşi Süreci (AHP) yöntemi ile bu kriterlerin ağırlıkları belirlenmiş ve Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS) ile çeşitli analizlerle potansiyel alanlar görselleştirilmiştir. Bu kapsamda on kriterli, yedi kriterli, beş kriterli ve üç kriterli veri setlerinden ayrı ayrı analizler gerçekleştirilmiş ve her dört yöntemin sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında yapılan analizlerde, on kriterli analiz sonuçlarına göre İstanbul'un toplam yüzey alanının yaklaşık %25'inin MAR uygulamaları için uygun olduğu belirlenmiştir. Yedi kriterli analizde bu oran yaklaşık %24 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Beş kriterli analizde İstanbul'un toplam yüzey alanının yaklaşık %23'ünün, üç kriterli analizde ise yaklaşık %25'inin MAR uygulamaları için uygun olduğu belirlenmiştir. On kriterli ve yedi kriterli modellerin ortak haritası hazırlanıp, her iki analizde de uyum gösteren alanlar dikkate alındığında, bu oran %21 olarak bulunmuştur. On kriterli ve beş kriterli modellerin ortak haritası hazırlanıp, her iki analizde de uyum gösteren alanlar dikkate alındığında, bu oran %18 olarak bulunmuştur. On kriterli ve üç kriterli modellerin ortak haritası hazırlanıp, her iki analizde de uyum gösteren alanlar dikkate alındığında, bu oran %16'ya düşmektedir. Ayrıca, on kriterli analizde“5 numaralı çok uygun alanlar”343 km²,“4 numaralı uygun alanlar”ise 1043 km² olarak hesaplanmıştır. Yedi kriterli analizde ise“5 numaralı çok uygun alanlar”283 km²,“4 numaralı uygun alanlar”1010 km² olarak bulunmuştur. On kriterli ve yedi kriterli modellerin ortak harita analizinde,“5 numaralı çok uygun alanlar”259 km²,“4 numaralı uygun alanlar”ise 908 km² olarak hesaplanmıştır. Beş kriterli analizde ise“5 numaralı çok uygun alanlar”370 km²,“4 numaralı uygun alanlar”912 km² olarak bulunmuştur. On kriterli ve beş kriterli modellerin ortak harita analizinde,“5 numaralı çok uygun alanlar”256 km²,“4 numaralı uygun alanlar”ise 739 km² olarak hesaplanmıştır. Üç kriterli analizde ise“5 numaralı çok uygun alanlar”627 km²,“4 numaralı uygun alanlar”741 km² olarak bulunmuştur. On kriterli ve üç kriterli modellerin ortak harita analizinde,“5 numaralı çok uygun alanlar”300 km²,“4 numaralı uygun alanlar”ise 554 km² olarak hesaplanmıştır. Bu sonuçlar, MAR projelerinin uygulanabilirliği açısından kullanılan kriterlerin ve analiz yöntemlerinin önemini vurgulamaktadır. Bu tez çalışması, İstanbul'un su yönetimi stratejilerinde rehber niteliğinde bir temel oluşturmaktadır. Çalışmada belirlenen potansiyel MAR alanları, yerel yönetimler, çevre koruma grupları ve diğer paydaşlar için önemli bir referans olacaktır. Bu sonuçlar, İstanbul'un su güvenliğini artırma, çevresel sorunları hafifletme ve ekonomik katkıları artırma hedeflerine ulaşılmasında uzun vadeli bir katkı sağlayacaktır. Çalışma, MAR yöntemlerinin uygulanabilirliği ve sürdürülebilir su yönetiminde etkili karar alma süreçlerine ışık tutmaktadır. Bu tez, su kaynaklarının korunması ve yönetiminde yenilikçi çözümler arayan diğer araştırmalar için de bir model teşkil etmektedir.
Özet (Çeviri)
This thesis focuses on identifying potential areas for Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) applications across Istanbul Province using a comprehensive Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework. As urbanization intensifies and climate change exacerbates water scarcity, the demand for sustainable water management strategies has become increasingly critical. MAR, an innovative approach to groundwater management, aims to replenish aquifers through controlled recharge techniques, ensuring reliable water sources for various uses while supporting ecological balance. The primary objective of this study is to determine the most suitable areas for MAR applications within Istanbul. This involves evaluating the region's hydrogeological, environmental, and climatic conditions to identify areas with high potential for successful MAR projects. Beyond geographical suitability, the study also considers economic, social, and environmental sustainability to provide a comprehensive decision-making framework. To achieve these goals, the research undertakes a comprehensive analysis of Istanbul's geological and hydrogeological characteristics to identify regions that are most favorable for Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR). This involves applying Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques in conjunction with GIS-based mapping to integrate diverse datasets and evaluate the suitability of various areas. Furthermore, the study assesses the identified MAR potential areas through an in-depth evaluation of their economic, social, and environmental impacts. These efforts collectively aim to contribute significantly to the development of sustainable water management strategies tailored to the unique challenges and opportunities present in Istanbul. Istanbul, as Turkey's largest metropolitan area, faces significant challenges in managing its water resources due to rapid population growth, unplanned urban development, and erratic precipitation patterns. During the summer months, insufficient rainfall to replenish surface water sources, coupled with increased evaporation and water consumption, exacerbates water scarcity. Additionally, intense rainfall over impermeable urban surfaces often leads to flooding, causing substantial damage to infrastructure. MAR has the potential to address these challenges by storing excess rainwater underground and mitigating the adverse effects of urbanization on natural water cycles. The study employs a rigorous methodology combining scientific evaluation and practical considerations, ensuring its findings are actionable and applicable to real-world scenarios. Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is a globally recognized water management approach involving the deliberate recharge of aquifers through techniques tailored to specific regional needs. These methods aim to address issues such as seasonal water shortages, groundwater depletion, and salinity intrusion in coastal aquifers. MAR techniques vary widely, including infiltration basins, injection wells, and the use of treated wastewater or stormwater for recharge. The benefits of MAR extend beyond water storage, offering solutions for flood risk mitigation, enhancement of water quality through natural filtration, and maintenance of ecological flows during dry periods. MAR also provides a cost-effective alternative to more energy-intensive water supply options, such as desalination. In Istanbul's context, MAR could help manage the impacts of urbanization on groundwater systems while contributing to long-term water security and sustainability. Istanbul, spanning both Europe and Asia, presents diverse geographical and climatic characteristics that influence its water resource management. The region features a mix of urbanized areas, agricultural lands, forests, and water bodies, each contributing uniquely to the hydrological cycle. With its strategic location and dense population, Istanbul experiences significant pressures on its water resources, making it a prime candidate for MAR applications. The study area includes various geological formations with differing permeability and water retention capacities. These formations, coupled with topographical variations, play a crucial role in determining the feasibility of MAR projects. Additionally, Istanbul's climate, characterized by wet winters and dry summers, necessitates innovative solutions to balance seasonal water availability. This research adopts a multi-criteria decision-making approach supported by Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to evaluate MAR potential. The methodology integrates ten criteria critical for assessing MAR suitability: hydrogeology, slope, elevation, precipitation, land use/land cover, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), curve number, groundwater level, drainage density, and soil type. These criteria were selected based on their relevance to MAR processes and were weighted using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). This structured technique allows for the systematic comparison of criteria, ensuring that their relative importance is accurately represented. GIS tools were employed to process and analyze spatial data, resulting in detailed maps illustrating MAR suitability across Istanbul. The ten-criteria analysis identified hydrogeology as the most influential factor, with a calculated weight of 22.22%. This reflects its direct impact on groundwater recharge, highlighting the importance of permeability, porosity, and aquifer water levels for the success of MAR projects. Elevation, with a weight of 3.95%, was recognized for its lower influence, as higher altitudes can impede water infiltration, reducing their suitability for MAR applications. Slope, weighted at 6.81%, affects water flow dynamics, where steeper slopes limit infiltration potential due to faster surface runoff. Precipitation, at 13.61%, plays a key role in determining the volume of water available for recharge, with intensity and distribution directly influencing MAR feasibility. Land use/land cover was weighted at 6.81%, emphasizing the role of natural vegetation and land use types, such as forests or agricultural fields, in promoting water percolation. NDVI, which measures vegetation health and density, was assigned a weight of 4.54%, underscoring its role in enhancing infiltration through healthy plant cover. The Curve Number, with a weight of 8.94%, indicates runoff potential, where lower values correlate with greater infiltration capacity. Groundwater level, weighted at 13.61%, represents the existing saturation conditions and the storage capacity of aquifers. Drainage density, with a weight of 9.07%, was identified as a critical factor, influencing surface water flow and infiltration dynamics. Finally, soil type also played a minor role with a weight of 5.44%, in determining recharge potential, emphasizing the layered influence of each criterion in MAR suitability. To enhance the analysis, a secondary evaluation was conducted using a streamlined seven-criteria model focusing on the most influential factors: hydrogeology, groundwater level, drainage density, curve number, slope, land use/land cover, and soil type. This dual approach enabled a comprehensive comparison between detailed and simplified analyses, highlighting the trade-offs between precision and efficiency. The AHP normalization for the seven-criteria dataset revealed the weight distribution among the criteria. Hydrogeology was the most influential, with a weight of 34.84%, emphasizing its crucial role in MAR projects due to its representation of groundwater storage capacity and permeability. Effective groundwater recharge relies on identifying areas with favorable hydrogeological characteristics, particularly in achieving sustainable and efficient water management. The groundwater level, with a weight of 17.69%, reflects the current saturation state and the aquifers' capacity to store water. Drainage density with a weight of 10.94%, indicating its importance in managing surface runoff. High drainage density supports aquifer recharge by directing water flow to areas with infiltration potential, showcasing the natural drainage network's significance in MAR feasibility. The Curve Number, with a moderate weight of 11.48%, reflects its role in evaluating runoff influenced by soil type and land cover. This parameter is essential for identifying areas where infiltration can be maximized, thereby aiding in MAR success. Slope was weighted at 8.71%, reflecting its influence on water flow dynamics. Lower slopes facilitate infiltration, making them more suitable for MAR, while steeper slopes tend to increase surface runoff, reducing recharge potential. Land use/land cover, with equal impact with the slope which was weighted of 8.71%, remains important for understanding human activities and vegetation cover in assessing recharge suitability, particularly in urban or semi-urban areas. Lastly, soil type was recognized for its lesser direct impact on MAR with 7.62% weight. In addition, after the seven-criteria analysis, AHP analyses consisting of five-criteria and three-criteria data sets were conducted according to the highest weight ratio. The criteria used in the five-criteria analysis and their weights are as follows; hydrogeology 41.31%, groundwater level 21.10%, drainage density 13.77%, curve number 13.49% and slope 10.33%. In the three-criteria analysis, hydrogeology was 54.35%, groundwater level 28.15%, curve number 17.50%. Hydrogeology emerged as the most critical criterion, reflecting the importance of permeability and groundwater recharge capacity. Groundwater level, drainage density and curve number also played significant roles, indicating areas where reduced surface runoff promotes effective infiltration. Conversely, steep slopes and impermeable soils were identified as limiting factors for MAR feasibility. In the analyses conducted within the scope of the study, according to the results of the ten-criteria analysis, it was determined that approximately 25% of the total surface area of Istanbul is suitable for MAR applications. In the seven-criteria analysis, this rate was calculated as approximately 24%. In the five-criteria analysis, it was determined that approximately 23% of the total surface area of Istanbul is suitable for MAR applications, and in the three-criteria analysis, approximately 25% of the total surface area of Istanbul is suitable for MAR applications. When the joint map of the ten-criteria and seven-criteria models was prepared and the areas showing agreement in both analyses were taken into consideration, this ratio was found to be 21%. When the common map of the ten-criteria and five-criteria models was prepared and the areas showing agreement in both analyses were taken into consideration, this rate was found to be 18%. When the joint map of the ten-criteria and three-criteria models is prepared and the areas showing agreement in both analyses are taken into consideration, this rate decreases to 16%. In addition, in the ten-criteria analysis,“Highly suitable areas numbered 5”was calculated as 343 km² and“Suitable areas numbered 4”was calculated as 1043 km². In the seven-criteria analysis,“Highly suitable areas numbered 5”was found to be 283 km² and“Suitable areas numbered 4”was found to be 1010 km². In the joint map analysis of the ten-criteria and seven-criteria models,“Highly suitable areas numbered 5”was calculated as 259 km² and“Suitable areas numbered 4”was calculated as 908 km². In the five-criteria analysis,“Highly suitable areas numbered 5”were found to be 370 km² and“Suitable areas numbered 4”were found to be 912 km². In the joint map analysis of the ten-criteria and five-criteria models,“Highly suitable areas numbered 5”was calculated as 256 km² and“Suitable areas numbered 4”as 739 km². In the three-criteria analysis,“Highly suitable areas numbered 5”were found to be 627 km² and“Suitable areas numbered 4”were found to be 741 km². In the joint map analysis of the ten-criteria and three-criteria models,“Highly suitable areas numbered 5”were calculated as 300 km² and“Suitable areas numbered 4”as 554 km². This study establishes a robust framework for identifying MAR potential areas in Istanbul, providing actionable insights for sustainable water management. The integration of MCDA and GIS tools ensures that the findings are both scientifically rigorous and practically relevant. The identified MAR zones offer opportunities for mitigating water scarcity, reducing flood risks, and enhancing ecological resilience. The implications of this research extend beyond Istanbul, offering a replicable model for other urban regions facing similar water management challenges. By promoting the adoption of MAR as a sustainable solution, this thesis contributes to the global discourse on innovative approaches to water resource management, aligning with broader goals of climate adaptation and sustainable development.
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