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Şubat 2023 Kahramanmaraş depremleri sonrasında Malatya ve Osmaniye illerinde betonarme binalar için ampirik kırılganlık eğrilerinin elde edilmesi

Empirical fragility curves from damage data on rc buildings in Malatya and Osmaniye obtained after 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes

  1. Tez No: 958823
  2. Yazar: YİĞİT BERAT KAYA
  3. Danışmanlar: PROF. DR. ALPER İLKİ
  4. Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
  5. Konular: Deprem Mühendisliği, İnşaat Mühendisliği, Earthquake Engineering, Civil Engineering
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 2025
  8. Dil: Türkçe
  9. Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
  10. Enstitü: Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: İnşaat Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
  12. Bilim Dalı: Yapı Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: 85

Özet

Depremler, diğer doğal afetlere kıyasla daha seyrek meydana gelmesine rağmen, büyük alanları uzun süre etkiler ve yıkıcı sonuçlara neden olur. Yıkıcı sonuçların azaltılması ancak doğru risk tahminleri ile mümkündür. Bu kapsamda, sismik riskin değerlendirilmesi amacıyla analitik fonksiyonlar şeklinde ifade edilen kırılganlık eğrileri yaygın olarak kullanılmaktadır. Kırılganlık eğrileri, belirli bir yer hareketi yoğunluğu altında, belirli bir bina tipi için, bir hasar seviyesine ulaşma veya bu hasar seviyesini aşma olasılığı olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Bu çalışma kapsamında, 6 Şubat 2023 tarihinde meydana gelen Pazarcık (Mw = 7.7) ve Elbistan (Mw = 7.6) depremlerinin ardından, hasar tespit çalışmaları sonucunda oluşturulan veri tabanı kullanılarak, Malatya'daki 37,633 ve Osmaniye'deki 65,067 betonarme konut binasının sismik hasar verileri incelenmektedir. Depremin etki alanının çok büyük olması dikkate alındığında, hasar değerlendirmelerinde hataların oluşması doğaldır. Ampirik kırılganlık eğrilerinin anlamlı ve güvenilir sonuçlar verebilmesi, deprem sonrası hasar tespit çalışmaları sonucunda hasarın doğru olarak değerlendirilmesiyle doğrudan ilişkilidir. Bu nedenle, çalışmanın ilk adımı olarak, tüm binaların resmi olarak belirlenmiş sismik hasar seviyeleri, hasar tespit uzmanları tarafından saha incelemeleri sonucunda çekilen hasar fotoğrafları kullanılarak doğrulanmış ve gerektiğinde revize edilmiştir. Bazı binalar, yapısal hasar seviyesini doğrulamak veya revize etmek için yeterli kanıt olmaması (yetersiz fotoğraflar, yapım yılı ya da kat sayısı verisi eksikliği, yanlış bina sınıflandırması vb.) nedeniyle değerlendirme dışı bırakılmıştır. Daha sonra, tüm binaların konumlarındaki maksimum yer ivmesi (PGA) ve Modifiye Mercalli Şiddeti (MMI), Amerika Birleşik Devletleri Jeolojik Araştırmalar Kurumu (USGS) tarafından geliştirilen ShakeMaps uygulamasından üretilen sarsıntı haritaları kullanılarak belirlenmiştir. Veri setindeki binalar, kat sayısı ve yapım yılının binalar üzerindeki etkisini değerlendirmek için sınıflandırılmıştır. Malatya ve Osmaniye'de konut amaçlı kullanılan betonarme binaların çeşitli hasar seviyelerini (az hasarlı, ağır hasarlı ve yıkık) aşma olasılığı hesaplanmış ve log-normal kümülatif dağılım fonksiyonu ve maksimum olabilirlik tahmini regresyon tekniği kullanılarak ampirik kırılganlık eğrileri türetilmiştir. Oluşturulan ampirik kırılganlık eğrileri, hem kendi içinde hem de literatürde betonarme yapılar için önerilen eğrilerle karşılaştırılmıştır.

Özet (Çeviri)

Although earthquakes occur less frequently than other natural disasters, they affect large areas for a long time and cause devastating consequences. Mitigation of destructive consequences is only possible with accurate risk estimations. In this framework, fragility curves expressed as analytical functions are widely used to assess seismic risk. Fragility curves are defined as the probability of reaching or exceeding a damage level for a given building type under a given ground motion intensity. In general, fragility assessment is performed by analytical, empirical, or hybrid methods. Empirical fragility curves are derived based on post-earthquake damage observation data. In this approach, statistical models are established by using the database containing the data for the buildings obtained as a result of the damage assessment studies carried out after the earthquake. This database may include information such as damage photographs, construction year, number of stories, building type, and geographical coordinates of the building. Utilising these data, the probabilities of reaching or exceeding the damage corresponding to different ground motion intensity criteria are obtained. Analytical fragility curves are obtained by dynamic analyses on existing or created building models. In this method, buildings are modelled using various software. Nonlinear dynamic analyses are conducted for buildings subjected to various earthquake scenarios. Based on the obtained structural behaviour results, it is determined whether the damage thresholds are exceeded or not, and fragility curves are derived. Hybrid fragility curves represent a modification of empirical and analytical methods. In this approach, the behaviour of structures is firstly analysed using empirical field data. Subsequently, analytical models of buildings calibrated with these data are created, and extensive simulations are performed. Thus, fragility curves with observational accuracy and analytical flexibility are developed. The high seismic-intensity earthquakes that have affected Turkey in recent years have highlighted the seismic fragility of the existing building inventory considered. This fragility has been evidenced by significant loss of life and financial losses due to severe damage to both structural and non-structural components. Therefore, the importance of seismic vulnerability assessment is growing. On 6 February 2023, a sequence of earthquakes, notably Pazarcık (Mw = 7.7) and Elbistan (Mw = 7.6), were among the most destructive seismic events in the history of the region. The earthquakes directly affected more than 10 provinces and millions of people, including Adana, Adıyaman, Diyarbakır, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Kilis, Malatya, Osmaniye and Şanlıurfa. Rapid and systematic damage assessment is crucial after significant disasters. The Ministry of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change conducted a damage assessment immediately after the earthquake. The damage assessment of millions of buildings was carried out in a very short period of time. Post-earthquake damage assessment studies provide important data on the seismic performance of affected buildings and empirical fragility analyses. In this study, seismic damage data of 47,134 reinforced concrete buildings in Malatya and 73,832 reinforced concrete buildings in Osmaniye are investigated by using the database established as a result of damage assessment studies after the Pazarcık (Mw = 7.7) and Elbistan (Mw = 7.6) earthquakes that occurred on 6 February 2023. Considering that the impact area of the earthquake is enormous, it is reasonable that errors may occur in damage assessments. The ability of empirical fragility curves to provide meaningful and reliable results is directly related to the accurate damage assessment following post-earthquake damage assessment surveys. Therefore, the first step of the study, the officially determined seismic damage levels of all buildings, were verified and revised by damage photographs which were taken by damage assessment experts during the damage assessment surveys. Some buildings were excluded from the assessment due to insufficient evidence to verify or revise the structural damage level (insufficient photographs, lack of data on construction year or number of stories, incorrect building classification, etc.). The evaluation of building damage levels through the analysis of damage images was conducted only for the damage classes to be urgently demolished, heavy damage and moderate damage. When many buildings in the undamaged, slightly damaged, and collapsed damage categories were examined, an accuracy close to 100% was observed. Consequently, only structures categorised into three damage classes were reassigned with a reduced error rate. Furthermore, within the scope of this study, buildings at the damage level to be demolished immediately were categorised as heavy damage. Since the buildings belonging to both damage classes have lost their pre-earthquake performance to a substantial extent and demolition is a more appropriate option instead of retrofitting, these two classes were considered as a single damage level, and fragility curves were derived for a single damage level. In addition, moderate damage level buildings have also been classified as slight damage level. Observations have shown that buildings classified as moderate damage level can be repaired economically (and reinforced if necessary, but rarely). In fact, a significant portion of these buildings have been determined to have slight damage level. As a result of the assessment, a dataset of 37,633 buildings in Malatya and 65,067 buildings in Osmaniye, which are reinforced concrete buildings with intended use for residential purposes, was utilised. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) and Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) at the locations of all buildings were determined using shake maps produced by the ShakeMaps application developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). In general, parameters defining building classes should be selected based on two criteria: (1) impact on seismic damage susceptibility and (2) availability of such information when using fragility curves for seismic fragility assessment. Collecting number of story data from buildings is relatively simple and has an important role in defining a building's seismic behaviour. For the number of stories, buildings with 1-3 stories were classified as low-rise 'L', buildings with 4-6 stories as mid-rise 'M, and buildings with more than 7 stories as high-rise 'H'. The year of construction is another parameter that is relatively simple to collect and has a significant impact on the seismic vulnerability of buildings. The construction year were classified into three categories: pre-2000, 2000-2011, and post-2011. The year 2000 marked a significant milestone in building behaviour, primarily due to the awareness raised by the 1999 Kocaeli earthquakes, the implementation of new reinforced concrete design regulations, and the widespread use of ready-mixed concrete and ribbed reinforcement. In 2001, the new building inspection law began to be implemented in 19 pilot provinces. The nationwide implementation of the building inspection law in 2011 marked that year as a significant milestone in terms of building behaviour. In the final section of the thesis, the probability of residential reinforced concrete buildings in Malatya and Osmaniye exceeding various damage levels (slight damage, heavy damage, and collapsed) were calculated according to the specified construction year and number of stories classification. Using the log-normal cumulative distribution function and maximum likelihood estimation regression technique, which are widely used in the literature, both PGA-based and MMI-based empirical fragility curves were derived. The Py2 goodness of fit test was performed to demonstrate the compatibility of the PGA and MMI-based empirical fragility curves with the observational data. The Py2 value changes from 0 to 1. As it approaches 1, it better represents the observational data. Subsequently, the obtained empirical fragility curves were compared with both analytical and empirical fragility curves proposed in the literature for reinforced concrete structures. When the results were evaluated, the reassessment showed a two-thirds reduction in heavy damage and a 50% reduction in moderate damage in both Malatya and Osmaniye. The cumulative damage distributions showed that damage increased as the number of stories increased. As expected, it was observed that damage decreased as the construction year increased. The goodness of fit test showed the MMI and PGA ground motion intensity yielded very similar results for both Malatya and Osmaniye, with only minor differences. In other words, both ground motion intensities reflected the observational data at the same level of significance. It can be stated that the proposed fragility curves could provide a useful assessment for the seismic fragility evaluation of existing reinforced concrete buildings in Turkiye (especially low and mid-rise buildings). Future research may envisage the development of fragility curves using other density measurements, including spectral value-based density measurements, to provide better correlation with physical damage. In addition, the inclusion of damage data from all provinces affected by the earthquake in the dataset will provide further insight into the fragility of buildings.

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