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Palm yağı yükü bozulmalarının sezgisel bulanık mantık yaklaşımı ile hata ağacı analizi

Fault tree analysis of palm oil cargo contamination by using intuitionistic fuzzy approach

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  1. Tez No: 984685
  2. Yazar: YASİN ATEŞ
  3. Danışmanlar: DOÇ. DR. YUNUS EMRE ŞENOL
  4. Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
  5. Konular: Denizcilik, Marine
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 2025
  8. Dil: Türkçe
  9. Üniversite: İstanbul Teknik Üniversitesi
  10. Enstitü: Lisansüstü Eğitim Enstitüsü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Deniz Ulaştırma İşletme Mühendisliği Ana Bilim Dalı
  12. Bilim Dalı: Deniz Ulaştırma Mühendisliği Bilim Dalı
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.

Özet

Palm yağı, dünya genelinde yaygın kullanımıyla gıda, enerji ve endüstriyel üretim alanlarında stratejik bir öneme sahiptir. Bu ürünün uluslararası düzeyde taşınmasında en çok tercih edilen yöntemlerden biri olan deniz yolu taşımacılığı, aynı zamanda operasyonel hatalar, ekipman arızaları ve insan kaynaklı kusurlar nedeniyle ciddi kalite kayıplarına ve ekonomik zararlara yol açabilecek riskler barındırmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, palm yağı taşımacılığı sırasında ortaya çıkabilecek bozulma nedenlerinin doğru bir şekilde analiz edilmesi, hem taşımacılık güvenliği hem de ürün bütünlüğünün korunması açısından kritik bir gereklilik arz etmektedir. Bu yüksek lisans tezinde, palm yağı taşıma süreçlerinde oluşabilecek potansiyel hata kaynakları, Sezgisel Bulanık Mantık (Intuitionistic Fuzzy Logic) tabanlı Hata Ağacı Analizi (Fault Tree Analysis - FTA) yöntemi ile modellenerek sistematik biçimde değerlendirilmiştir. Araştırmanın ilk aşamasında kapsamlı bir literatür taraması gerçekleştirilmiş; palm yağının kimyasal özellikleri, taşıma koşulları ve uluslararası düzenlemeler (MARPOL Ek II, IMO Kodları, IBC Kodu) bağlamında incelenmiştir. Ardından, sezgisel bulanık mantık kullanılarak uzman görüşleri belirsizlik altında değerlendirilmiş ve olaylara ilişkin olasılık değerleri türetilmiştir. Çalışma kapsamında geliştirilen hata ağacı modelleri aracılığıyla, başlıca risk unsurları olarak tank temizliği yetersizlikleri, buhar ısıtma sistemlerindeki arızalar, valf hataları, mürettebat bilgi eksiklikleri ve organizasyonel zaaflar tespit edilmiştir. Bu olayların birleşimiyle oluşabilecek en kritik bozulma senaryoları, Minimal Kesit Kümesi (MCS) yaklaşımı ve Fussell-Vesely Önem Ölçütü yardımıyla derecelendirilmiştir. Bulgular, özellikle 90–95°C aralığında sabitlenmesi gereken ısı değerinin sağlanamamasının, palm yağının kristalleşmesi ve oksidasyona uğraması gibi kalite kayıplarına neden olduğunu göstermiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, palm yağı taşımacılığına ilişkin karar destek sistemlerinin geliştirilmesine katkı sunarken, aynı zamanda uluslararası denizcilik uygulamaları için operasyonel önceliklerin belirlenmesinde önemli bir temel oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışma, palm yağı gibi hassas sıvı yüklerin taşınmasında hem teknik sistemlerin hem de insan faktörünün birlikte ele alınması gerektiğini ortaya koymakta ve deniz taşımacılığındaki risk yönetimine bütüncül bir yaklaşım sunmaktadır.

Özet (Çeviri)

Palm oil has emerged as a highly strategic commodity in the global economy, with diverse applications ranging from food products to biofuels. As I notes, palm oil is“a very important energy alternative”and constitutes“the largest segment of the global vegetable oil market,”with approximately half of the world's production originating from Malaysia. Due to its widespread use in the food and energy sectors, maintaining the integrity of this product throughout the transportation process is of critical economic and social importance. In this context, maritime transport plays a central role not only in supporting national economies but also in ensuring the delivery of“clean and safe food to consumers.”As such, it remains the preferred mode of transportation for high-volume and sensitive cargo like palm oil. However, the international maritime transport of palm oil brings significant operational and environmental risks. The literature highlights that handling or transportation errors such as crew mistakes, equipment failures, or non-compliance with regulations can result in cargo spoilage, fires, or pollution. Previous studies on tanker accidents indicate that human factors (e.g., procedural violations or insufficient training) and equipment failures are the leading causes of fires, explosions, collisions, and groundings. These findings underscore the necessity of accurately identifying potential failures in the palm oil transport chain as a critical component of risk management. In this regard, the thesis conducts a comprehensive literature review covering both transportation logistics and the specific characteristics of palm oil Cargo such as its chemical composition and handling requirements while also reviewing relevant international regulations, including MARPOL Annex II, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) codes, and the International Bulk Chemical (IBC) Code. Within this conceptual framework, I emphasizes the need to consider different modes of maritime transport (e.g., coastal versus deep-sea shipping; bulk liquid tankers versus container vessels), as well as classification rules such as the IMO Dangerous Goods Code, MARPOL, and IBC Code, which determine the appropriate conditions under which palm oil may be transported. For example, IMO Resolution MEPC.148(54) permits the carriage of palm oil in deep or independent tanks, provided that these tanks comply with the International Bulk Chemical Code. Full adherence to MARPOL Annex II is mandatory, and some flag states (such as the Bahamas) grant specific exemptions related to tank construction only if vessels meet alternative, stringent standards. This regulatory framework underscores the importance of operational rigor: deficiencies in tank design or maintenance may lead to certificate invalidation and a heightened risk of contamination. Additionally, I attention to the temperature sensitivity of palm oil: as a substance that solidifies at ambient temperatures, palm oil must be transported within a thermal range of approximately 90–95°C to prevent crystallization and oxidation. This heat must be provided by reliable steam systems; failures in valves, fouled heating coils, or insulation degradation can quickly compromise cargo quality through inadequate temperature control. In summary, the literature clearly demonstrates that maritime transport of palm oil not only involves standard logistics operations but also requires careful management of cargo-specific parameters and strict compliance with international maritime safety standards. Against this backdrop, the thesis poses the following research questions: what operational errors are likely to occur in palm oil transportation, what are their root causes and interrelationships, and which factors contribute most significantly to cargo spoilage? To address these questions, I employs Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) a systematic, top-down risk assessment method enriched with Intuitionistic Fuzzy Logic to handle uncertainty in expert judgments. In classical FTA, a“top event”(in this case, cargo spoilage or contamination) is defined and then decomposed into underlying basic events (BEs) using logical AND/OR gates. In conventional (crisp) approaches, each BE is assigned a precise failure probability, and these are used to compute the likelihood of the top event through combinations known as minimal cut sets (MCSs). The study outlines a seven-step aggregation process to capture uncertainty in expert evaluations: verbal descriptors of event likelihoods are first converted into fuzzy numbers; inter-expert similarities are calculated; average and relative consensus levels are derived; expert weights are assigned; and finally, all expert assessments are aggregated into a single intuitionistic fuzzy value for each BE. The result of this process is a fuzzy representation of each event's likelihood that incorporates both expert consensus and uncertainty. These fuzzy values are then defuzzified to produce actionable indicators. I apply the commonly used“centroid method”(center of area) to transform each intuitionistic fuzzy number into a Crisp Failure Possibility (CFP). This method integrates the membership functions to yield a singular numerical measure. Although CFPs are not yet formal probabilities, they are subsequently converted into failure probabilities (FPs) using a formula proposed by Onisawa (1988), which takes into account the degree of hesitation in expert assessments—pushing more uncertain judgments toward 0.5 and more confident ones closer to the derived possibility value. Once the FP for each BE is calculated, standard FTA procedures are followed: all MCSs are identified, with AND gates requiring multiplication of constituent event probabilities, and OR gates requiring summed values minus overlapping intersections. In addition to calculating the top event probability, my ranks MCSs according to their criticality using the Fussell-Vesely Importance Measure (F-VIM), defined as the ratio of an MCS's probability to the top event's probability. A higher F-VIM indicates a more significant contribution to system risk and helps prioritize which failure scenarios demand immediate intervention. Within this framework, I construct detailed fault tree models for palm oil transportation. The top event is defined as“Cargo spoilage or contamination during maritime transport,”with sources of failure classified into: operational errors (e.g., mistakes during loading or navigation), technical malfunctions (e.g., equipment failures), and cargo-specific issues (e.g., chemical degradation). Particular emphasis is placed on tank cleaning and heating system operations, as inadequate cleaning may leave harmful residues, and improper temperature control may result in palm oil solidifying or chemically deteriorating. For instance, the“Tank Cleaning Operation”is modeled as an intermediate event with two branches: operational errors (e.g., incorrect water pressure settings, BE45) and technical faults (e.g., misplacement of cleaning machines, BE47; insufficient detergent use, BE53). Literature indicates that improper tank cleaning before cargo loading due to suboptimal tank geometry, hardware configuration, or human oversight can lead to residue accumulation and contamination. Another critical branch is“Heating System Failure,”which includes issues such as valve malfunction, heat exchanger fouling, insulation deficiencies, and sensor miscalibrations, all of which can prevent maintaining the target 90–95°C range. The thesis underscores the necessity of this temperature range for preserving palm oil's integrity and highlights that routine neglect in steam system maintenance directly increases the risk of spoilage. Other branches in the fault tree include“Human Error in Cargo Handling”(e.g., failure to close valves),“Insufficient Equipment Availability”(e.g., lack of spare parts or clean water), and“Organizational Factors”(e.g., inadequate training or missing procedures). The fault trees combine both technical failures and human factors, in alignment with literature emphasizing that accidents often result from a combination of both. After collecting expert input and performing the IFFTA computations, the thesis presents quantitative results. CFP values for each BE are reported, ranging from 0 to 1, representing the experts' consensus on each event's possibility under uncertainty. The highest CFPs are found in events related to the steam heating system:“Insufficient Steam Supply”(BE40 ≈ 0.772) and“Excessive Steam Supply”(BE39 ≈ 0.752), indicating that heating system failures pose the most significant risk to cargo integrity. Conversely, events like“High Electrical Current”(BE25 ≈ 0.187) and“Lack of Crew Knowledge”(BE26 ≈ 0.151) are associated with much lower CFPs.

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