Enflasyon hedeflemesi ve Türkiye'de enflasyon süreci
Başlık çevirisi mevcut değil.
- Tez No: 102531
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ.DR. ERİŞAH ARICAN
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, Economics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2001
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Marmara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Bankacılık ve Sigortacılık Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Bankacılık Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 143
Özet
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Özet (Çeviri)
INFLATION TARGETING AND INFLATIONARY PROCESS IN TURKEY Inflation targeting entered the economic literature as a new topic during the last two decades. This new strategy was successfully implemented in various countries and provided a new alternative to conventional weapons, that were used to fight against inflation. Until 1980's, most countries used the so-called 'nominal anchors' m order to reduce inflation rates. Prior to that date, monetary aggregates and exchange rates were widely used as nominal anchors by introducing a maximum limit for their expansion during a pre-determined period of time. Although nominal anchors in the form of limits set for exchange rates were quite successful in keeping inflation rates at reasonable levels, they also caused some problems, especially in Latin American and South East Asian economies. Indeed, crises occured in Mexico, Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea, Russia and Brazil during the 1994-1999 period, were somewhat related to fixed or crawling peg regimes. These examples can be extended by adding Argentina and Turkey that underwent a financial turmoil in 2000. Implementation of exchange rate anchors in these countries (with the exception of Argentina) were terminated due to the overvaluation of the domestic currency and a speculative attacks afterwards. Similarly, monetary anchors had some disadvantages. Financial innovation resulted in a product differentiation in the financial area during the last two decades. Hence, controlling conventional monetary aggregates such as Ml and M2 did not provide the desired results, amid wide-spread money creation mechanisms, such as credit cards. In addition, monetary anchors are not easy for the average citizens, "'toY*^-*.i&tt,perceive. On the other hand, exchange rates are more commonly followed by the households. Inflation targeting emerged as an alternative to the anchor mechanisms mentioned above, and used inflation rate itself as a nominal anchor. In the case of inflation targeting, the economy administration announces an inflation target for certain time period and declares that it will pursue all necessary policies in order to reach this target. The rationale behind announcing an inflation target and declaring administration's commitment to reach this goal, is to persuade all economic actors to revise their behavioral parameters parallel to the economic authority. Usually, interest rates are used as a policy tool in inflation targeting. The monetary authority should develop a detailed model to forecast the inflation by the end of the period for which the inflation target is set. Any deviation from this target requires a revision of the monetary policy: if the forecasted figure is higher than the pre-determined target, the monetary authority increases interest rates. If however, the forecast remains below the target, interest rates can be reduced. Hence, inflation targeting is sometimes called as 'inflation forecast targeting' since this policy tries to equalize forecasted and targeted inflation rates. Inflation targeting has some prerequisites and some measures should be taken by the economy administrations prior to the implementation. First, fiscal dominance on the monetary authority should be eliminated and public sector deficits should be reduced to reasonable levels. Monetization or any expectation regarding monetization in the future, may exert inflationary pressures, which may affect inflation targeting policy unfavorably. In the case of large budget deficits, monetary policy can not be directed towards disinflation, and meeting the financing requirements of the public sector take. b.*,^ J&9 0&the priority. Persistent inertia, especially in countries, that experienced high inflation levels for a long time, may cause some difficulties during implementation. Hence, inflation targeting should be implemented only after some disinflation is achieved and inflationary expectations are revised. Therefore the government should focus on structural reforms. Central Bank independence to determine or at least to use necessary tools to reach the inflation target, is another prerequisite. Any government intervention to the Central Bank may throw the economy administration of its target. Turkey experienced high inflation rates during the last three decades, that sometimes reached to three-digit levels. The main reason for such high and persistent inflation levels are fiscal problems. Whether they are monetized or not, fiscal imbalances have the potential of boosting inflationary expectations. Hence the inflationary process in Turkey became strongly inertial. Hence, mis inertial nature of inflation should be focused on by any disinflation effort and only dislodging the inertial component of inflation may provide successful results. Annual Inflation Rates %40.0 %0.0 -%40.0 vOVOt--t--C~-00000000O\O\O\ Source: Turkish State Institute of StatisticsInflation targeting was also a part of Turkey's IMF-backed disinflation program initiated by the beginning of 2000. Turkey's inflation has a plateau structure, and each shock, external or internal, pushes (reduces) inflation to a higher (lower) plateau. An example for such a shock was increasing oil prices in the second half of 1970' s that carried inflation to higher levels. Econometric studies suggest that, Turkey's inflation became a univariate process, statistically related only to past values of inflation itself. Hence, the inertial component of inflation can not be removed easily. Turkey's IMF-backed disinflation program initiated by the beginning of 2000, diagnosed the disease correctly and focused on measures that were expected to revise inflationary expectations. Up-front fiscal adjustment, structural reforms and an exchange rate anchor were the three main pillars of the program. Following the implementation of an exchange rate peg for 18 months, a switch to an expanding band system along with the implementation of inflation targeting was planned. Although this program was terminated in February 2001 by the adoption of floating rate system, the Turkish economy administration wants to switch to inflation targeting as of 2002. Following the crisis in February 2001, problems regarding debt sustainability gained the priority over inflation in Turkey. The ongoing fiscal dominance on the monetary policy is a major obstacle for the implementation of inflation targeting in Turkey. Monetization of duty losses of state-owned banks and government bonds given to insolvent private banks under the management of the Savings Deposit Insurance Fund, made things difficult for the monetary authority on the inflation front. In aneffort to sterilize the excess liquidity, the Central Bank can only rely on IMF financing. This study tries to analyze the merits and disadvantages of inflation targeting strategy by referring to previous country cases. The implementation of this system in Turkey will bring some difficulties and the government should activate some measures in order to be successful. First of all, Turkey's current inflation that is expected to reach 80% by the end of 2001 is the most important obstacle for the proper implementation. Inflationary expectations fed by past experiences are still in the minds of people. Hence dislodging the inertial component will not be an easy task. In order to gain credibility, the proper implementation of the IMF-backed program seems to be the only viable solution. This study consists of five chapters. In the first chapter, general definitions regarding inflation and inflation targeting are given. In the second chapter, countries, that implemented inflation targeting, were analyzed. Chapter three is focusing on Turkey's inflation history and the causes of inflation in Turkey. The remaining two chapters are analyzing the crises occurred in November 2000 and February 2001, and the future prospects on the inflation front. ''
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