Türkiye imalat sanayi için bir kointegrasyon analizi
A cointegration analysis for the Turkish manufacturing industry
- Tez No: 213871
- Danışmanlar: PROF.DR. ÖMER L. GEBİZLİOĞLU
- Tez Türü: Doktora
- Konular: İstatistik, Statistics
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Birim kök, Durağanlık, Eşbütünleşme, Zaman serileri, Time series, unit roots, seasonal unit roots, stationarity, cointegration, seasonal cointegration, Turkish manufacturing industry, Unit root, Stability
- Yıl: 2007
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Ankara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: İstatistik Ana Bilim Dalı
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: Belirtilmemiş.
Özet
Özet yok.
Özet (Çeviri)
The manufacturing industry of Turkey is one of the fundamental sources of the national economy. Manufacturing is the main driving development factor with its productivity power. For this reason, the manufacturing industry of Turkey is considered as the subject matter of this thesis under the name of ?A Cointegration Analysis for the Turkish Manufacturing Industry?. The value adding contribution of the thesis is to the area of economic time series analysis in the real life applications of statistics. In the theoretical part of the thesis, the concepts of unit roots and cointegration analysis are reviewed. In the main and original part of the thesis, unit root tests are applied to payment, investment, input, output, added value, export/import per employee wages time series data and long term relationship between the related series is examined by cointegration analysis. The years 1950-2001 are covered for the manufacturing industry of public and private sector in Turkey. Furthermore, seasonal cointegrational relationship between ?partial productivity series in the public sector? and ?partial productivity series in the private sector? for the manufacturing industry in Turkey is investigated for the period 1988:1 ? 2006:4 . The integration order of the series is calculated. Seasonal unit root tests are performed using the HEGY method. Finally, the interpretation of the estimated parameters is presented in depth.
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