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Analysis of different types of government spending shocks and Turkish trilemma configuration

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  1. Tez No: 402029
  2. Yazar: ORCAN ÇÖRTÜK
  3. Danışmanlar: PROF. CARL WALSH
  4. Tez Türü: Doktora
  5. Konular: Ekonomi, Uluslararası İlişkiler, Economics, International Relations
  6. Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
  7. Yıl: 2011
  8. Dil: İngilizce
  9. Üniversite: University of California, Santa Cruz
  10. Enstitü: Yurtdışı Enstitü
  11. Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  12. Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
  13. Sayfa Sayısı: 132

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Özet (Çeviri)

In the first two chapters, I examine different types of government spending while literature usually treats government spending as a homogenous compound. I disaggregate the government spending into three parts; namely, government investment, government wage component consumption (i.e. wage expenditure) expenditure, and non-wage component consumption (i.e. purchases of goods and services). In the first chapter, I perform a Vector autoregression (VAR) analysis and compare the effects of different types of government spending shocks using US data. All types of spending shocks produce a rising effect on output; however their magnitudes differ i.e. government wage expenditure has the biggest impact while non-wage consumption expenditure has the lowest. I showed that this is due to the varying effects of spending types on private consumption. In the second chapter I estimate a DSGE model that distinguishes between these different types of government spending where each type of spending produces different effects on macroeconomic variables. Estimation results obtained from the US data indicate complementarity between private consumption and government production. This feature enables the model to generate a positive response of private consumption following a spending shock which has been a puzzle in the literature.In the last chapter, I study the trilemma configuration of Turkish economy. This chapter starts with testing the concept of the impossible trinity for Turkey following Aizenman, Chinn and Ito (ACI) approach. However, I also introduce alternative techniques in order to deal with the misspecification problem detected in ACI approach. These techniques include employing additional terms, Two Stage Least Squares, General Method of Moments and Kalman filtering. I show how the contributions of financial integration and/or monetary independence have increased from the first period to the last, with corresponding limitations on exchange rate stability. The analysis also explores the implications of these changes (captured by the corresponding indices) for macroeconomic outcomes by revealing evidence for the impacts of trilemma indices on growth volatility, inflation and inflation volatility for each sub-period. Finally, I find that there is a key role for raising international reserves as trilemma trade-offs and their effects on macroeconomic variables have both been mitigated with reserve accumulation.

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