Dünya ekonomisindeki işbirliği çabaları ve KEİB Projesi örneği
Cooperation initiatives in the world economy and the example of BSECR Project
- Tez No: 51724
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ.DR. BASKIN ORAN
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, Uluslararası İlişkiler, Economics, International Relations
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 1996
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Ankara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 163
Özet
Özet yok.
Özet (Çeviri)
İNGİLİZCE ÖZET147 There are two main purposes of this study. Firstly, it aims to emphasize the role of the economic parameter of power in determining the total power of a State in the period that followed the World War II. In order to achieve friis purpose, the global economic and political developments of this period are touched upon so as to specify the frames of the study. The second purpose is to determine the diminishing role of the State and the augmenting impact of the regional economic integration organisations in the international platforms in the light of the new world order and its principles which, as argued by the author, was created as a result of the developments that took place between 1945-1990. It also considers the economic integration theory in terms of its definition, models and impacts on the economies of member-States taking Black Sea Economic Cooperation Region project as an example. A. WORLD ECONOMY AFTER WORLD WAR 11 (1945-TODAY) The world economy after the World War II should be considered and analyzed in three different phases. The first phase is the direction that the world economy moved towards during the Cold War era which could also be referred as the period of competition between the West and East. The second phase, on the other hand, began with the intervention of developing (DCs) and less developed countries (LDC's) to the Bretton Woods system (which will be explained briefly below) that added a new concept to the terminology of global politics: rich North-poor South. Finally, the third phase is the world economy influenced and shaped by the political developments of 1990's and the new world order. 1. A BRIEF HISTORY OF THE“COLD WAR”(1945-1970) There were tremendeous political and economic changes taking place following the World War II. States, on their effort to reshape the world order after the war, cretaed a bipolar economic, military, and political system under the leadership of the United States (US) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). One side of the system, namely the Western Bloc with the US as the dominant power, put forward democracy, and free market economy throughout the world as their political and economic objectives respectively, while the other side, the Eastern Bloc under the hegemony of communist148 USSR, proposed a state controlled political and economic order. The 45 year period after the World War II was the stage for a cruel competion between these two blocs in all fields possible for the sole purpose of achieving world leadership, and this period of history is referred as“Cold War.”Both the Western and the Eastern Bloc started, in late 1940's and early 1950's, a process of organizing institutions appropriate to their world perspective and objectives.* The countries of Western Bloc, introduced Bretton Woods system for its allies in 1945 together with the institutions such as IMF (1945), IBRD (1945) and GATT (1947) that aimed to create for their member-States appropriate grounds for free trade and economic prosperitiy. The Bretton Woods system was designed to heal the economic problems in the Western Bloc countries so as to provide political stability. Therefore, the main objective of the new institutions was political, in nature, with economic motives: to prevent political turmoil in their traditional and future markets which were under“communist threat”of the Eastern Bloc. The US, being the dominant power of the Western Bloc with the capacity and will to alter pre-World War I Pax Brftannica with Pax Americana, would be the guarantying party of the Bretton Woods system and its institutions by financially supporting the capital of IBRD and IMF. The fixed dollar mechanism also began with the Bretton Woods system which set a fixed price of USD 35 for an ounce of gold as a mean to distribute the trade surplus of the US to her allies in order to provide a solution to their balance of payment problems. Her allies, in turn, would be committed to the Anglo-American political objectives, and would also be potential trade partners of the US. Western Bloc also found North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) in 1949 as Soviet expansionism feared the Western European countries. Finally, European Community (EC) was found in 1957 as a platform to prevent a possible war among European countries, especially between France and Germany, by bringing forward a mechanism of complementary production between these two countries. Eastern Bloc, on the other hand, established COMECON (1948) and Warshaw Pact (1955) as their economic and military institutions which could be considered as the counterparts of the institutions of the Western Bloc. Between 1945-1970, political and military parameters of power were given priority compared to economic parameter as Western and Eastern Bloc did not perceive any threat to their economic interests. Western Bloc had set the rules for financial and commercial relations among member-States, while the Eastern Bloc had created a stable and separate system which provided interdependence among its member-States * The only institution mutually founded was United Nations (1945) that aimed to replace pre-World War II League of Nations which was not successful in realizing peace throughout the world.149 engaged in a competition in military (including spatial researches) and political fields (in terms of creating spheres of influence in Cuba, Vietnam, Korea) which required high levels of spendings that could not be done if economic concerns were considered. 2. THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE BRETTON WOODS SYSTEM : BEGINNING OF A NEW ERA (1970-1990) Former German Chancellor Willy Brandt's Eastern politics ( aspa&frjt ) provided certain understanding between Eastern and Western Blocs with the 1970's. Efforts were made to create a spirit of cooperation between the two blocks in this period of post-World War II history referred as detente with a certain level of achievement. However a new bloc which mostly consisted of newly freed LDC's which were former European colonies emerged* to make necessary adjustments to the mechanism of post-World War II international economic relations which functioned as against their interests. Although these countries used international platforms such as OECD, UNCTAD and NIEO to bring forward their arguments, their effors remained unresponded. However as the OPEC countries ceased the privieges granted to Western petroleum companies (so- called Seven Sisters), it caused sharp increases in the price of oil upon which Western countries were highly dependent. The use of oil by the LDC's of Southern hemisphere as a foreign policy instrument worked, and caused the allies of Western Bloc to reconsider the Bretton Woods system. The US, the party that made all financial sacrifices to support the Bretton Woods system, on the other hand, experienced huge budget deficits due to fixed dollar mechanism and to increases in her spendings caused by Vietnam“adventure”of the late 1960's, while her allies, such as Japan and Western Germany achieved budget surplus. The main reason of the situation was the US' effort to maintain the dollar level as set by the Bretton Woods system which artificially kept the dollar rate higher than actual. The US abandoned the fixed dollar system which caused mistrust in her currency and deficit in her budget under these circumstances, and started“floating dollar”system in 1971 which, together with the oil crisis, caused the Bretton Woods system to lose its grounds. * Although their efforts to make adjustments for a fair functioning of international economic relations had started in early 1960's, these efforts reached its most sound level in 1970's.150 Another oil crisis that started in 1980 as a result of the Islamic revolution in Iran caused the oil prices to raise by 40 % which encouraged oil producing non-OPEC LDC's such as Mexico, China, Egypt together with the USSR to increase their production and to supply at prices lower than the actual market price so as to maximize their market share. This, in turn, caused sharp decreases in oil prices and together with the US policy to increase the interest rates by 1% paved way to financial disasters for the LDC's which began to finance infrastructure! projects with the credits g-anted by the Western financial institutions as they experienced losts on their only mean to repay ther debt, namely earnings of oil sales. The countries of the Eastern Bloc received their share out of this financial disaster as well, as they also started investing on infrastructural projects with the credits that they received from Western financial institutions as a result of ospofftik. The USSR, on the other hand, started suffering from the expenses she realized due to the costly and unsuccessful invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 as part of her traditional aim to reach warm waters. Her expenditures rose as she ignored her financial problems and kept on investing money on arms race in spite of her lack of technology and financial sources to support this policy. This financial disaster of 1980's shook the Eastern Bloc, and caused political unrest within these socialist countries. Finally the Eastern Bloc began to dissolve in early 1990's leaving a chaotic world political structure behind. The post-Word War II bipolar economic and political order was not valid under these circumstances. One side of the system (USSR and her allies) broke apart. Although the other side (US and her allies) was successful in pushing outwards their rival, they had to abandon the economic system which was considered as the fundemental principle that regulated the relations among the countries of the Bloc. Besides the emergence of new financial and industrial centers in Asia- Pacific -in other words 'lour tigers*“- together with Japan, the economic and political unification of 12 European countries under EC, and the relatively weaker economic power of the US compared to 1945-1980, caused the former Western Bloc countries to reconsider the system and to question the status of tfie US within this system. These developments forced the Western States, especially the US, to search for a ”new world order“ in political and economic * South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore.151 terms that would protect and strengthen their leadership*. A new world order in which former allies of the Western Bloc could have been the competitors, and in which the economic parameter is the most important factor of ”State power.“ ”3. THE NEW WORLD ORDER and ITS PRINCIPLES There are three main principles of the“new world order”related to the subject of this study. One of these principles is transnationalisation in which the economic relations are directed mostly by currency flows instead of the movement of goods and services. The second principle, paralel to the first one, is globalisation which means the spread of international capitalism throughout the world. As a concept globalisation has different impacts on different fields: - In economic and political fields: the institutionalisation of market-based democracies throughout the world, the spread of concepts such as human rights and individualism as universal values, liberalisation of the trade of goods and of the financial sector, the diminishing role of State as a decision-making unit and partly replacement of nation-State in the international platforms by the regional economic integration units. - In culture: The spread of all values and information of Western perspective through the channels provided by the developed technology of media and of computers (cable TV, and INTERNET). While this gives, on one hand, an impression that“we all are part of one planet”, it indicates the differences among people in terms of standards of living etc. on the other. Besides that this might cause a positive approach or hostility towards Western way of living, it also causes a dilemma especially for the nationals of Third World countries (where censorship is widespread) in case an internal problem of their country is handled totally in different perspectives on e.g CNN and on * The US policy makers have been using every opportunity to emphasize their leadership and their will to conserve Pax Americana since the dissolution of the Eastern Bloc so as to avoid a threat to their“world leader”status from the EC and the Asian countries leaded by Japan: Bush Administration started the Gulf War against Iraq, Japan's main supplier of oil, and blocked the oil pipelines with a UN resolution, therefore forbidding Iraq's sales transactions to this country. Clinton Administration, on the other hand, started the peace process in Middle East in 1995, and an agreement was initiated by Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) and Israel Another agreement was also reached the same year, under the mediation and hosting of the US, on the question of former Yugoslavia, the border of Eurasia, where EC, and especially Germany, plans to create spheres of influence. Recently President Clinton became the first US President to visit Dublin in order to contribute to the peace process between England and Ireland. ** The main reason of the dissolution of Eastern Bloc was not its military or political, but its economic weakness. The strength in the economic parameter of the Western Bloc was a very important factor that neither military strength of the USSR especially on convential arms, nor her political influence especially on LDC's could match.152 their state-owned TV company.* The third principle is the economic competition among the supranational organisations such as NAFTA, EC, ASEAN etc.. The effects of these principles, especially globalisation, derived from the new world order is a serious threat to the future of nation-state. The economic effect of globalisation makes a good portion of the production units of one State dependent to the decision makers in the headquarters of a multinational company out of then- borders. The cultural effect causes people to have a different look to their country and their local area and emphasizes the differences among people. This, in turn, stimulates and therefore strengthens regional nationalist movements within a State.** As the nation-State is not as effective as it was between 1945-1990, the efforts of States are directed towards forming regional blocs that would act more effectively in the international platforms, and that would serve as new markets for their local products, and new“economic centers”of the world for the multinational companies. These regional initiatives mostly have, as opposite to the ones founded between 1945-1970, economic objectives with political motives (NAFTA, the new structure of EC, APEC, ASEAN etc. These regional initiatives require removal of barriers to the free movement of capital and labor so as to increase trade volume within the region, therefore giving priority to economic aspects of the initative.) Free Trade Zones, Customs Union, Common Market and Economic Community are different models of economic integration indicating a higher level of cooperation respectively. B. BSECR: A REGIONAL ECONOMIC BLOC INITIATIATIVE After the military coup of 1980, Turkey changed her economic structure by altering her joint (public and private) economic model with free market economy and by opening up the economy outwards. However the developments of the decade between 1 980-1 990 forced Turkey to revise her foreign policy as well. * That is why the CNN broadcast to Iraq was prohibited throughout the Gulf War. ** The political conflicts caused by ideological differences seem to lose their grounds with the ending of Cold War. However, what we have today is conflicts derived from ethnic and religious differentiations: Kurds and Alawites in Turkey, blacks in the US, Catholic Irish in the UK, Quebecois in Canada (a referandum was held in 1995 to decide the separation of the region from Canada), Sicilians in Italy etc.153 The reason of this tendency was that Turkey as a committed member of Western Bloc during the Cold War seemed to lose her strategic importance with the dissolution of Eastern Bloc. Her efforts to be a full member of EC in 1987 so as not to be excluded from the globalisation and regionalisation process were not responded positively and there was not a reason for being optimistic about a possible admission in the future.* Turkey's initiative with Iran and Pakistan under ECO for a“free trade zone”also seems troublesome due to mistrust between the two main founders, Iran and Turkey, derived from the differences in their political structures. Turkey's policy to approach Middle Easten countries initiated in 1974 provided her to establish potential trade contacts, and Turkish companies recevied a fair amount of contracts with these countries especially in construction field. However the crisis and war in the Gulf region caused Turkey to cease her trade relations with Iraq, to block the oil pipelines of this country passing through Turkish borders. Turkey lost a market worth of 12 Billion USDollars as a result of the developments that took place in that region in the years that followed 1990. Therefore she had to reconsider her foreign policy methods in this new era, and to adapt them to the conditions set by the new world order in which a country is perceived as powerful according to her status (as an economic center) in the region that she is situated. An opportunity appropriate to Turkey's new foreign policy objectives arose in 1990's with the breaking down of the communist system that led to the emergence of newly independent republics (NIR'S-Ukraine, Russian Federation, Azerbaijan, Armenia, Georgia, Moldova) within the borders of the former USSR with the will to revise and renovate their economic and political system which would provide them to integrate to the global economic and political scene. The Balkan countries that previously were part of the Eastern Bloc such as Romania and Bulgaria had the same tendency as well. These developments together with the original idea of former Turkish ambassador Şükrü Elekdağ led Turkish policy makers to seek the possibility of the establishment of a regional economic bloc in a region that includes these Balkan and former USSR countries situated around the Black Sea. Finally the Istanbul Declaration that founded Black Sea Economic Cooperation Region was signed in 1992 by the Presidents and Prime Ministers of the above mentioned countries with the participation of Greece and Albania to the initiative as full members. Following the signing of the declaration, entities that * EC is planning to create a“Mediterrenian Zone”where there will be trade contacts through customs unions and consider Turkey not within the community as a Ml member but a part of this zone.154 would serve as political and economic platforms of the project such as Common Working Groups, Secreteriat (under the administration of Foreign Economic Relations Board of Turkey), BSEC Parliamentary Assembly and BSEC Council were also founded. Turkey's expectation from this project was to be the economic center and the mediator of the region to the Western world as she had sound relations with the Western financial institutions which could assist NIR's, Romania, Bulgaria and Albania in adapting their economies to the free market principles and in developing infrastructural projects. Turkey could act as a bridge in marketing the products of these countries using her channels provided by her relatively stronger private sector. The demand for consumer goods in the markets of those countries was a very potential opportunity for the Turkish firms. The construction firms of Turkey would also reach a new market that is easy to penetrate as their prices were lower than world prices. Turkey foresaw the project as an element to assert herself to EC which, in turn, would reconsider Turkey's full membership. Therefore there were mutual interests for both Turkey and the other members in cooperating within the frames set by BSEC. Turkey encouraged Greece to take part in this initiative so as to prevent Greece from creating spheres of influence in the region by using her“EC membership card.”However there are serious problems to go beyond before the project. Firstly, Turkey is not the only country willing to be the center of this region. Russian Federation, as the predecessor of the former USSR, does not welcome Turkey as a new partner to her“back yard.”Russian policy of“near abroad”is, in fact, a caution to prevent Turkey's possible influence to the NIR's with which Turkey has strong cultural and historical ties. The recent developments concerning the struggle between these two countries on the transportation of Azebaijani and Kazakh oil and on the application of Treaty of Conventional Arms Reduction especially in Caucasus area prove that the Russian Federation and Turkey have doubts on each other's objectives. While the Russian Federation have concerns on Pan-Turkist ideals to develop once again within her“bacy yard”, Turkey fears to lose the momentum of the advantages provided her by the present situation in the region. Greece is also a potential regional power within this project and she certainly would be the last country to allow and admit Turkey's greater influence in the region. The wide range of problems between Turkey and Greece (from Cyprus to territorial water, from air space to minorities etc.) pave way to difficulties to gather them around a table for finding solutions to these problems putting aside a partnership in the region. While the only reason that caused155 Greece to take part in this project is not to leave Turkey a potential“playground”, the reason that lies behind Turkey's invitation to Greece to the project is her concerns about Greece's attitude towards this project as an EU member. Greece plans to influence the member-States of the project by her full-membership to EU which, she asserts, would easen their integration to global economics and politics. She also has objectives related to establishing an Orthodox economic and political union in which she and the Russian Federation would be the leading countries that would certainly hurt and undermine Turkey's aims on her role in the new world order. Secondly, the relations among member-States other than the ones previously stated do not seem very healthy either. There are serious problems between Armenia and Azerbaijan (over Karabagh and Nakhchevan), Armenia and Turkey, Moldova and Ukraine, Ukraine and the Russian Federation (over the Black Sea fleet), Bulgaria and Greece (over Macedonia) etc.* Thirdly, BSEC is not very promising as an economic bloc. The trade volume within the region and its share in the global trade is very low being 7 % and 2 % respectively. Besides, NIR's and former Eastern Bloc countries are still dependent on the Russian Federation in terms of import and export transactions which could prevent them from acting on their own interests in political fields, while the Western countries' share in Russian Federation's trade activities is larger. Greece and Turkey, on the other hand, has close trade connections with their fellow allies in the EU, one as a full member and the other as a close partner provided by the Customs Union. Therefore economically weaker member-States are dependent to a single member-State while economically stronger member-States are dependent to non-member States and these trade-related figures prevent one from being optimistic about the future of the project. That is the reason, in fact, that lies behind the selection of forming free trade zones among member-States as the final objective of the project. In summary, although this regional economic cooperation initiative seems promising in serving as a political platform for the member-States to reshape then- relations and to solve the problems among themselves, it has a very long way to go over before it realizes the economic objectives set in Istanbul Declaration due to their slruggle of power in the region (Turkey-Greece- Russian Federation), their economic weakness, the lack of trade contacts within the region and the dependency of relatively stronger member-States to non-member States in terms of foreign trade. It has been asserted that BSEC could serve as a fruitful platform for the member-States to discuss their problems. (David Barchard,“Avrupa Umutlu,”_S&ûs_ (Ağustos 1992), p. 30.)
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