Türk mali sisteminde sıcak para olgusu
Hot money movement in the Turkish financial system
- Tez No: 94655
- Danışmanlar: DOÇ.DR. ERCAN BEYAZITLI
- Tez Türü: Yüksek Lisans
- Konular: Ekonomi, İşletme, Economics, Business Administration
- Anahtar Kelimeler: Belirtilmemiş.
- Yıl: 2000
- Dil: Türkçe
- Üniversite: Ankara Üniversitesi
- Enstitü: Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü
- Ana Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Bilim Dalı: Belirtilmemiş.
- Sayfa Sayısı: 72
Özet
Özet yok.
Özet (Çeviri)
SUMMARY The public sector financial defiencies have changed since 1980. During this change, there has been inner debtorship because statebonds have been on sale on the inter market. As a resut of this the interest rates have increased. Another result of this the inter debtorship has been the entrance of the foreign capital, which generally circulates in the international markets for profit. The foreign investors have bought TL by selling their currency. They have invested in the Turkish securities. This has resulted in an increase in the demand for TL, causing a rise in rates when investors see the increase in rates, they make investments. As a result rate of exchange has gained value. The more value the rate of exchange gains, the more hot money has gains access to Turkey. As can be seen there is a direct proportion between the two. The hot money enters the markets throuh the channels known as portfolio investments and short term bank credits. For the money to be considered hot, it has to possess the following characteristics. a) The unclarity of time and amount, b) Rapid entrance and rapid exit from the market, c) The application of selling and buying on the secondary market, i.e, high frequency of the exchange of the portfolio investments which include TL securities. Under which conditions can hot money make an entrance to a country which imports capital for foreign investors ? a) For foreign investors there has take no expectation of develuation in the foreign currency. ( The money of the country where they are going to make the investment). b) The hot money can enter a country if it can benefit from the interest arbitrage which results from relative interest rate difference. In other words, the profit rate in the country where the investments are made should be high compared to the rate in other countries. 65c) Another condition for hot money to enter a country is the portfolio investments of an investor in different countries should be conversely proportional to each other so that hot money can make an entrance. If the investments are directly proportional to each other, then, the risk that the investor takes increases. This causes little foreign currency to enter a country. d) For the foreign currency to enter a country there must be a risk limit under every condition because of the reasons explained in (c). The foreign capital makes little entrance when there is a period of unclarity of the cost and the amount of the investment in TL securities and when there is high volatility in the market. The effect of the hot money can be seen basically on ISEC and bank balance sheet liabilities in Turkey. The negative effect of this situation on ISEC is due to hot money's rapid entrance and rapid exit from the market. This doesn't let ISEC to deepen because there is little foreign capital entering the country. As we all know the second channel through which hot money makes an entry is short term bank credit. These credits which take their place in the bank balance sheet liabilities automatically effect the liabilities. One of the ways the bank balance sheet liabilities are affected is when the customer, either opens a current bank account or opens DTH. Another effect of the hot money on the bank balance sheet liabilities is the short position which banks take. This situation was observed in the 1994 crisis, when the loss of the banks was high due to the evaluation of the rates of exchange when the bank was in an short position. In fact 3 banks were bankrupt during this crisis. Today in Turkey hot money is encouraged as a policy of the government to provide the necessary fund for the development of the country. 66
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